The Oracle by Polymarket Podcast

🔮 The F-35 Deal is Dead

Dean Blundell [https://substack.com/profile/34833166-dean-blundell] is a Canadian liberal muckracker, Substacker, and the host of the Dean Blundell podcast. We talk election night surprises, Pierre Poilievre’s journey from 92% favorite to losing his own seat, and what’s next for US-Canada economic and security relations under Carney. Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:00) Election night surprises (03:59) Voting trends in Canada (07:55) Canadian real estate & conservative over-performance (11:05) Why anti-immigrant politics is not working in Canada (16:03) Did Pierre Poilievre lose because of creepiness? (24:30) Can Canadians ‘wait out’ Trump? (29:00) Canada is diversifying away from the US economy (35:00) Canada recession this year? (41:30) The F-35 deal is dead (44:00) Will the Alberta separatists get a boost? (54:10) American vs Canadian media environment (58:00) Political betting in Canada Alt Listening Links: 👉 Subscribe on YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@OracleByPolymarket] 👉 Subscribe on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2PvCzhhYOnnq1s4ae8NeUb] 👉 Subscribe on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oracle-by-polymarket-podcast/id1800547061] Connect With The Oracle * Tips? Feedback? Story ideas? Write oracle@polymarket.com or @wasabiboat [https://x.com/wasabiboat] on X * Write for The Oracle: We’re expanding our coverage and looking to hire more writers and investigators. Details Here [https://news.polymarket.com/p/write-for-polymarket]. Disclaimer Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com [https://news.polymarket.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

🔮 US-Iran Negotiations: Sina Toossi vs John Bolton

This episode is a mashup of two polar opposite views on the ongoing US-Iran negotiations (🔮 46% odds of a US-Iran deal this year [https://poly.market/ASogtSQ]). Sina Toossi [https://x.com/sinatoossi], an Iran expert at the Center for International Policy, thinks the market is underrating chances for a breakthrough this year. Next, Ambassador John Bolton [https://x.com/ambjohnbolton], a perma-hawk who served as National security Advisor in Trump’s first term, is optimistic about a quick and cheap military option carried out by Israel or the US (🔮 24% odds of an Israeli strike on Iran before July [https://poly.market/3DVLT0y]). Alternate Links: When you like, subscribe, review, and comment on your podcast app of choice it will help us grow the show. 👉 Subscribe on YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@OracleByPolymarket] 👉 Subscribe on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2PvCzhhYOnnq1s4ae8NeUb] 👉 Subscribe on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oracle-by-polymarket-podcast/id1800547061] Connect With The Oracle * Tips? Feedback? Story ideas? Write oracle@polymarket.com [oracle@polymarket.com] or @wasabiboat [https://x.com/wasabiboat] on X * Write for The Oracle: We’re expanding our coverage and looking to hire more writers and investigators. Details Here [https://news.polymarket.com/p/write-for-polymarket]. Disclaimer Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com [https://news.polymarket.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

🔮 Mass Migration and Separatist Movements in Canada

Maxime Bernier [https://x.com/MaximeBernier] is the founder of the People's Party of Canada (PPC) and former Minister of Foreign Affairs. Bernier is campaigning on an accommodating response to the Trump tariffs, restricting immigration to Canada, and an increase in military spending. On Polymarket, the PPC is currently projected to win zero seats [https://poly.market/JGGDmEf] in Monday's election. Follow Maxime on X: @MaximeBernier [https://x.com/MaximeBernier] Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:00) Could Pierre Poilievre lose his own seat? (04:45) Resisting the national mood to fight Trump (07:58) Didn't Trump throw out the last trade deal with Canada? (09:30) Populist movements, birthrates and GDP per capita (16:10) Does Trump prefer to deal with Carney? (17:10) Does Trump threaten Canadian sovereignty? (18:44) Secessionist movements in Canada (21:00) Questioning Canada's role in NATO (22:27) What if Trump gets Greenland, Panama Canal, and parts of Canada (24:30) Maxime's Election predictions (20:04) How the Ukraine war ends NEW: Oracle Podcast Feeds We’re now distributing the podcast on YouTube, Apple, and Spotify. 👉 Subscribe on YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@OracleByPolymarket] 👉 Subscribe on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2PvCzhhYOnnq1s4ae8NeUb] 👉 Subscribe on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oracle-by-polymarket-podcast/id1800547061] Disclaimer Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com [https://news.polymarket.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Why Trump Wants The Panama Canal

🔮NEW: Oracle Podcast Feeds. We’re now distributing the podcast on YouTube, Apple, and Spotify. When you subscribe and drop a review / like / comment it will help us grow. 👉 Subscribe on YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@OracleByPolymarket] 👉 Subscribe on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2PvCzhhYOnnq1s4ae8NeUb] 👉 Subscribe on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oracle-by-polymarket-podcast/id1800547061] John Konrad is a former merchant marine captain and the founder of gCaptain [https://gcaptain.com/], a news site covering shipping and global trade. In this episode we cover Trump tariff scenarios, the Panama Canal and other naval chokepoints, US shipbuilding, and more. Timestamps (00:00) Introductions (02:00) Tariffs are a bad deal (05:10) Non-linear thinking & embracing chaos (07:10) Why the zero tariff world is gone (13:35) Inflation and global trade tensions (14:49) Revaluing the dollar (19:45) 3 possible tariff scenarios (26:04) Control of the Panama Canal (29:44) Who can take more pain: US or China? (34:10) Is John rare earth pilled? (37:10) How long before tariffs snarl supply chains? (43:30) US naval dominance (48:05) Houthis, drones and asymmetric warfare (53:01) Why shipowners don't want to return to the Suez (57:50) John's #1 forecasting tip (59:10) Who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline? (60:30) Day after a Strait of Hormuz closure Connect With The Oracle * Tips? Feedback? Story ideas? Write oracle@polymarket.com [oracle@polymarket.com] or @wasabiboat [https://x.com/wasabiboat] on X * Write for The Oracle: We’re expanding our coverage and looking to hire more writers and investigators. Details Here [https://news.polymarket.com/p/write-for-polymarket]. Disclaimer Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com [https://news.polymarket.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

🔮PODCAST: Tariffs Will Fail

🔮NEW: Oracle Podcast Feeds . We’re now distributing the podcast on YouTube, Apple, and Spotify. When you subscribe and drop a review / like / comment on one of those platforms it will help us grow and get more guests. 👉 Subscribe on YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@OracleByPolymarket] 👉 Subscribe on Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2PvCzhhYOnnq1s4ae8NeUb] 👉 Subscribe on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oracle-by-polymarket-podcast/id1800547061] Porter Stansberry [https://x.com/porterstansb] is the founder of Stansberry Research [https://stansberryresearch.com/], one of the largest private financial publishers in the US. In a recent tweet [https://x.com/porterstansb/status/1906432376076406878], he predicted that the United States will default on its debt within four years. We had him on to talk the tariff endgame, future of the dollar, inflation, US manufacturing, and how he’s positioned today. * Follow Porter on X [https://x.com/porterstansb] * Get Porter’s Daily Journal [https://www2.portersjournal.com/] Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (1:00) US default prediction (2:59) Will Trump cut Social Security? (4:07) Why Trump loves tariffs (5:33) End of US dollar dominance and alternatives? (12:12) Will DOGE make a dent? (13:57) What would a serious version of US industrial policy look like? (18:30) Can Trump move the Republican party towards tariffs? (20:05) How Trump's tariff policy will fail (21:45) Tariffs and inflation (26:05) Can the US go "cold turkey" off China? (29:06) Bitcoin as a reserve currency (31:05) Porter's portfolio today Connect With The Oracle * Tips? Feedback? Story ideas? Write oracle@polymarket.com [oracle@polymarket.com] or @wasabiboat [https://x.com/wasabiboat] on X * Write for The Oracle: We’re expanding our coverage and looking to hire more writers and investigators. Details Here [https://news.polymarket.com/p/write-for-polymarket]. Disclaimer Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com [https://news.polymarket.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]