China’s $735B Trade Surplus + How Beijing Masks Its Holdings + The G7 Debates Global Imbalances

A Job Beats a Handout + Why the World Bank Is Betting Everything on Employment

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World Bank President Ajay Banga about the global jobs challenge facing millions of young people in emerging markets.    Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby [https://www.cfr.org/experts/sebastian-mallaby], Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Michael Froman [https://www.cfr.org/experts/michael-froman], CFR President   Guests:   Gina Raimondo [https://www.cfr.org/experts/gina-m-raimondo], Distinguished Fellow, CFR; Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2021–2025)   Ajay Banga [https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/who-we-are/leadership/ajay-banga], President, World Bank Group   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert [http://cfr.org/newsletters/#podcasts] when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

SpaceX Goes Public + What IPOs Tell Us About Capital Markets

The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern capital markets, corporate governance, and the blurry line between public and private investing. This episode unpacks what the numbers actually show, why much of the popular narrative is overblown, and what investors should actually be paying attention to.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby [https://www.cfr.org/experts/sebastian-mallaby], Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson [https://www.cfr.org/experts/rebecca-patterson], Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   We discuss: * How the SpaceX IPO could raise around $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history, and value the company at $1.77 trillion. * How subsequent IPOs by Anthropic and OpenAI could bring a wave of funding valued at close to $200 billion in total.  * Why the equity supply panic is overblown. * SpaceX's alarming governance structure, under which Musk serves as CEO, CTO, and chairman simultaneously, holding a supermajority of votes despite a minority equity stake. * How growth equity, unlike traditional private equity, offers zero oversight, often granting founders supervoting shares and investor loyalty pledges that amount to anti-governance rather than governance. * How SpaceX's initial index weight will be tiny, since only a small fraction of the company will actually be publicly floated. * How the S&P's profitability requirement is a deliberate lesson from the dot-com bust. * Why SpaceX's revenue projections sound dazzling but tell only half the story, given that estimated capital expenditure could far outpace revenue through the end of the decade.   Mentioned on the Episode:    “IPOs: Number and Proceeds [https://www.sec.gov/data-research/statistics-data-visualizations/initial-public-offerings-ipos/ipos-number-proceeds],” U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission   Jason Dean, “U.S. Officials Said to Discuss Taking Stakes in AI Companies [https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/u-s-officials-said-discuss-taking-stakes-ai-companies?rc=hp7hes],” The Information   Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington, and Amanda Pallais, “Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined [https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/remote-work-leaves-younger-workers-sidelined/],” Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert [http://cfr.org/newsletters/#podcasts] when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

China’s $735B Trade Surplus + How Beijing Masks Its Holdings + The G7 Debates Global Imbalances

This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to correct them, and how the imbalanced system looks increasingly likely to collapse under its own weight.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby [https://www.cfr.org/experts/sebastian-mallaby], Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson [https://www.cfr.org/experts/rebecca-patterson], Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Brad W. Setser [https://www.cfr.org/experts/brad-w-setser], Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   We discuss:  * How China’s 2025 current account surplus shattered records at $735 billion, jumping nearly 60 percent in one year. * Why China’s overall trade surplus looks modest as a share of its own GDP but is unprecedented in absolute dollar terms, and arguably as a share of the global economy. * As CFR expert Brad Setser puts it: “Trade should be two way. We sell to you, you sell to us. Not just one way.” * How cheap Chinese goods and bond-buying benefited U.S. consumers and borrowers, even as they hollowed out manufacturing and fueled financial froth. * Why China’s real leverage has shifted from dumping U.S. Treasury holdings to controlling rare earths, critical minerals, and permanent magnets the Fed can’t print. * How China masks its holdings by moving out of U.S. custodians, leaving official data badly understating what it actually owns. * Why the Belt and Road Initiative backfired, turning roughly $1 trillion of influence-buying into resentment and unpaid loans. * Why China could let its currency appreciate but won’t, since a weak renminbi keeps the export engine running. * Why Chinese leader Xi Jinping refuses to shift toward a consumption-driven model, viewing direct cash transfers as “welfarism.” * Why the upcoming G7 summit is unlikely to fix any of this, turning the fight into China versus Europe as the system risks collapsing under its own weight.   Mentioned on the Episode:    Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, “Germany to Punish Ministries for Failing to Spend Funds Quickly Enough [https://www.ft.com/content/b9b7fb8d-b4fe-452f-abe0-80ccfb93d169?accessToken=zwAAAZ6D7D2HkdO5t_uNtP5FL9Or4IDM-5PRaQ.MEUCIGb7D-ZiU04SvsjL_e_rded6WOZdmVXZV8ls-_zhHFOcAiEAkwGkoKPKS8TmiVLKKrfn7G5yUUqxxjdoZu_a4SmPKfQ&sharetype=gift&token=e0747ef8-ce8a-460c-9521-b4b967494860&syn-25a6b1a6=1],” Financial Times   “A Conversation With Ambassador Jamieson Greer [https://www.cfr.org/event/a-conversation-with-jamieson-greer],” CFR.org   Brad W. Setser, “Time to Stop Forecasting China’s Surplus Away [https://www.cfr.org/articles/time-to-stop-forecasting-chinas-surplus-away],” CFR.org   Mark Sobel, “Global Imbalances: Grandeur and a ‘Nothingburger’ [https://www.omfif.org/2026/03/global-imbalances-grandeur-and-a-nothingburger/],” OMFIF   “The U.S.-China Trade Relationship: What’s Behind the Competition? [https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/contentious-us-china-trade-relationship],” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert [http://cfr.org/newsletters/#podcasts] when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Japan Rearms + Guns vs. Butter + Global Defense Spending Boom

As governments around the world ramp up defense spending, a new era of rearmament is reshaping economies, markets, inflation, and politics. This episode examines Japan’s dramatic shift away from its postwar pacifist identity amid rising tensions with China, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and growing uncertainty around the global security role of the U.S.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby [https://www.cfr.org/experts/sebastian-mallaby], Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson [https://www.cfr.org/experts/rebecca-patterson], Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   We discuss:  * Why the rearmament boom is globally synchronized and big enough to move fiscal balances and bond markets. * How defense spending is colliding with already massive government debt, and pushing bond yields higher. * Why Japan’s military transformation marks a significant reversal of its postwar identity. * Why Japan’s debate over nuclear weapons remains emotionally raw more than eighty years after Nagasaki. * How fear of China and doubts about the U.S. security umbrella are reshaping politics in Japan and Germany. * How governments are trying to fund massive military buildups without cutting popular programs, and why bond markets may eventually force a reckoning. * How rising military spending could fuel another wave of inflation, higher interest rates, and global market volatility, trapping central banks between fighting inflation and financing governments at war. * As Rebecca Patterson puts it: “All this is happening when governments, frankly, can't afford more guns or butter because debt levels are very high.” * How AI, drones, and cyberwarfare are rapidly changing the economics and strategy of modern conflict. * How the new arms race is spilling far beyond the battlefield into tech, energy, supply chains, and the future of globalization.   Mentioned on the Episode:   David Kelly, “Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt [https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/notes-on-the-week-ahead/five-scenarios-for-the-federal-debt/],” J.P. Morgan Asset Management   “Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026],” International Monetary Fund (IMF)   “Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) [https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive],” Federal Reserve Bank of New York   “Majority of Japanese Support Constitutional Revision: Poll [https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/05/03/japan-constitution-amendment-public-support-remains-above-50/9801777847035/],” UPI   “Rebuilding Our Military [https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/rebuilding-our-military-fact-sheet.pdf],” The White House   “The True Cost of Peace: Rebalancing World Military Spending For a Sustainable and Peaceful Future [https://www.un.org/en/peace-and-security/the-true-cost-of-peace],” United Nations   “World Economic Outlook: Defense Spending [https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf],” International Monetary Fund (IMF)   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert [http://cfr.org/newsletters/#podcasts] when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Data Centers In Space? + Planet Labs CEO Talks ‘Large Earth Models’

AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of Earth in real time. This episode explores how the AI infrastructure race could move into orbit, with space-based data centers, falling launch costs, and “large Earth models” potentially transforming the global economy, geopolitics, and the future of artificial intelligence itself.   Host:   Sebastian Mallaby [https://www.cfr.org/experts/sebastian-mallaby], Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Will Marshall [https://investors.planet.com/governance/board-of-directors/person-details/default.aspx?ItemId=f7006907-5951-46a9-abf9-ee5a2bc7ccd9], CEO and Cofounder, Planet Labs   We discuss:  * How AI could transform the space economy more profoundly than the invention of the internet, and potentially move the world’s supercomputers off Earth entirely.  * Why Planet Labs founder Will Marshall believes satellites and AI are converging into what he calls “planetary intelligence.”  * Why the real driver of the space boom wasn’t just rocket technology, but the smartphone revolution and the miniaturization of electronics.  * How commercial satellite imagery exposed Russia’s invasion buildup before the war in Ukraine, including the discovery of a pontoon bridge on the Belarus border.  * Why AI is making satellite data dramatically more valuable by allowing models to analyze satellite images in real time rather than having to send individual images back to Earth.  * Whether orbital compute infrastructure could expand the space economy by a factor of ten, and reshape the balance of geopolitical and corporate power.  * The idea of “large Earth models”—AI systems trained not on the text of the internet, but on continuous visual data from the physical world.  * Why tech leaders increasingly believe AI data centers could move into orbit, powered by uninterrupted solar energy in space.  * How falling launch costs from companies like SpaceX could make space-based computing economically viable within the next decade.   Mentioned on the Episode:   “Planet Successfully Runs AI in Space [https://investors.planet.com/news/news-details/2026/Planet-Successfully-Runs-AI-in-Space/],” Planet   “Thales Alenia Space Reveals Results of ASCEND Feasibility Study On Space Data Centers [https://www.thalesaleniaspace.com/en/press-releases/thales-alenia-space-reveals-results-ascend-feasibility-study-space-data-centers-0],” Thales Alenia Space   “Is AI Putting Graduates Out of Work Already? [https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/13/is-ai-putting-graduates-out-of-work-already],” The Economist   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert [http://cfr.org/newsletters/#podcasts] when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.