This Week In Logistics

TWIL: Aramco Says Oil Won't Normalize Until 2027 — And Two Other Shifts That Moved the Ground This Week

The 2027 oil normalization timeline, Australia's $45B Inland Rail decision, and a 1-in-3 truck out-of-service rate. Let's dive in. Last week on the podcast, we tracked volatility as the operating environment. #Thisweekinlogistics, the dramatic swings have settled — but when the dust settles, you get to see what the ground actually looks like and what has moved. And the ground has moved in some significant ways. Saudi Aramco's CEO confirmed the oil market will not normalize until 2027, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today. Australia's Federal Government scaled back Inland Rail, halting the northern corridor and redirecting $1.75 billion into the existing rail network. New Zealand and Singapore signed a world-first legally binding supply chain resilience pact. CVSA's Roadcheck Day 1 data came back with roughly 1 in 3 trucks placed out of service — up from 1 in 5 at last year's full event. And the industry conversation around Amazon Supply Chain Services has shifted from shock to the practical question of what operators actually do about it. The question most operators have been asking is when does this all settle. The more useful one is: now that the dust has, what has actually moved underneath your planning assumptions? This episode unpacks the three structural shifts and what they mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why the Hormuz crisis has stopped being a short-term disruption and started looking like a structural reality through 2027 — and what that means for surcharge models built on temporary assumptions * Why Inland Rail being scaled back forces East Coast Australian operators to revisit depot, corridor, and multimodal planning built around a corridor that may no longer arrive * What the New Zealand-Singapore resilience pact signals about governments treating supply chains as strategic national capability * Why a 1-in-3 out-of-service rate at CVSA Roadcheck Day 1 is now translating directly into fleet availability in the tightest truck market in a decade * How the AWS comparison reframes Amazon Supply Chain Services as a long-term structural shift, not a short-term shock * Why knowing your own performance number — on-time rate, exception resolution, onboarding speed, cost-to-serve — is becoming commercially dangerous to not know * Three practical actions for the next seven days: make fuel structures permanent, pressure-test network assumptions, and make performance visible If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From temporary surcharge models → to permanent two-directional pricing structuresFrom planning to infrastructure timelines → to pressure-testing assumptions that may not arriveFrom watching big tech publish performance data → to knowing your own number cold The operators handling this well aren't waiting for things to normalise. They're treating 2027 as the planning horizon, revisiting the assumptions underneath their network, and answering performance questions with specificity. Spot the pattern early. Simplify your response. Know exactly where the ground has moved.

TWIL: Volatility Is the Operating Environment

$18 Brent Swings, Decade-Low Capacity, and Amazon's 96.4% Benchmark. Let’s dive in. This Week in Logistics, we're tracking what happens when volatility stops being a disruption and becomes the operating environment. Brent crude swung $18 in a single week — $115 down to $97 on ceasefire hopes, then back above $105 after Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal. At the same time, DAT says truck availability is already at a decade low — and CVSA's annual road check just pulled thousands more trucks off the road. And Amazon Supply Chain Services posted its first benchmark: 96.4% on-time delivery, with P&G, 3M, and Lands' End confirmed as early adopters. The question most operators are still asking is: when will fuel and capacity normalize? The more useful one is: what will your operation looks like if neither does? Join CartonCloud CEO Shaun Hagen to unpack what these three pressures mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why planning to a single Brent price is now structurally flawed, and how to build a fuel surcharge cadence that adjusts in both directions * Why capacity is tightening from four directions at once — fuel economics, compliance crackdowns, seasonal demand, and CVSA road check stacking on top of each other * What FedEx reactivating retired MD-11 freighter aircraft actually signals about the freight market * Why Amazon's 96.4% on-time delivery rate will appear in your next customer conversation, even if your customer isn't considering switching * How mid-market operators differentiate against a platform built for standardised freight * The CVSA Road Check numbers worth knowing this week — 15 inspections per minute, 72 hours, and roughly 13,000 trucks pulled off the road in a single weekend * Three practical actions for the next seven days: build pricing across the range, manage the capacity crunch proactively, and know your own number If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From planning to a single price → to building margins that work across the rangeFrom waiting for capacity to ease → to communicating before the pressure arrives at the customerFrom watching Amazon → to knowing exactly where your service complexity makes you irreplaceable The operators who are winning right now are the ones who plan for the range, not the headline. Plan for range. Communicate before the pressure arrives. Know your number.

TWIL: The Hormuz Fuel Crisis, Freight Upcycle + Amazon Supply Chain Update

#ThisWeekinLogistics, we're covering two weeks of news in one episode — because the volume of developments between late April and early May has been extraordinary. The Strait of Hormuz escalated from blockade to live fire. Amazon opened its entire logistics network to any business globally. And Q1 freight earnings confirmed what operators have been feeling on the ground — rates are up, but it's fuel and supply pressure doing the work, not demand. The question most people are still asking is when does this settle. The more useful one is what does your operation look like if it doesn't? This episode unpacks all three structural shifts and what they mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why the Strait of Hormuz crisis has moved from economic disruption to a permanent operating environment — and what that means for your planning assumptions * Why every fuel model built on pre-February assumptions is now structurally wrong * What Amazon Supply Chain Services actually is, who it competes with, and where mid-market operators still have a clear advantage * Why the freight upcycle is real but fragile — and how a supply-driven cycle behaves differently to a demand-driven one * Why every major parcel carrier globally is running an active fuel surcharge simultaneously for the first time ever * The mode-shift window that's open right now — and how offering options turns a provider into a logistics partner * Three practical actions for the next seven days: stress-testing your fuel model, mapping your Amazon exposure, and connecting to crisis infrastructure If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From waiting for normal → to planning for what's in front of youFrom riding the rate wave → to fixing your cost structure while conditions allowFrom reacting to Amazon → to knowing exactly where you compete and win The operators doing well right now aren't waiting for things to calm down. They're being disciplined because things haven't — and they're planning for that to stay the case.

TWIL: What’s Actually Happening in Logistics Right Now (with special guest Scott Murray)

Wait... what do Zoolander and self-driving delivery trucks have in common? Find out in today's Ep as we take a look at the latest logistics news — from the view of operators on the ground! In this week’s This Week in Logistics, we’re joined by special guest Scott Murray, VP of Operations at CartonCloud, to get a clear, on-the-ground view of what’s actually happening across the logistics industry right now. There’s a lot happening in the headlines — fuel volatility, cost pressure, and shifting demand — but what does that really look like inside day-to-day operations? This episode goes beyond the surface to unpack how these changes are showing up for operators, where businesses are feeling the strain, and what the best operators are doing differently to stay ahead. Because right now, the environment is less forgiving — and the gap between disciplined operators and everyone else is widening. This week we cover: * Why the current market feels “relentless” for logistics operators on the ground * How fuel volatility is forcing mid-contract pricing changes and difficult customer conversations * Why capacity isn’t the real issue — profitability is * What the best operators are doing differently, from customer selection to proactive communication * Why process discipline matters more than technology in the current environment * How to approach AI in logistics, without overcomplicating it * Why strong customer relationships are becoming a key advantage during volatility If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you focus on what actually matters right now: From reacting to pressure → to understanding your true cost to serve From chasing volume → to protecting profitability and relationships Get clear on your costs, tighten your processes, and stay close to your customers — that’s what will carry operators through this period.

TWIL: Hidden Costs, Pricing Pressure + the New Service Baseline

In this week’s episode of This Week in Logistics, CartonCloud CEO Shaun Hagen breaks down how volatility is no longer hitting headline rates — it’s creeping into the hidden cost stack, operational admin, and service expectations. Following ongoing global fuel shocks, the market may look stable on the surface — but underneath, costs are accelerating, compliance is tightening, and execution risk is rising across every layer of the supply chain. This isn’t just about pricing anymore. It’s about how quickly your systems, processes, and data can adapt. Because right now, the gap between average operators and disciplined operators is widening fast. This week we cover: * Why fuel volatility is now hitting through surcharges, accessorials, and admin — not base rates * What Australia’s new fortnightly fuel adjustment ruling means for pricing cadence and cash flow * How rising parcel surcharges signal hidden margin pressure across networks * Why clean data and admin infrastructure are now critical for compliance, refunds, and cash recovery * How UPS, Home Depot, and major players are raising the bar on visibility, predictability, and service expectations If you operate in transport, warehousing, or logistics, this episode will help you shift your focus:From watching rates → to managing the full cost stack. From broad service promises → to selective, reliable execution. Spot the hidden costs early, tighten your systems, and protect your margins before they slip.