Why Should We Care if a U.S.-India Alliance is Achievable? | with Kurt Campbell

Why Should We Care if a U.S.-India Alliance is Achievable? | with Kurt Campbell

What if the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century is the one Washington is actively damaging? In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Kurt Campbell - former Deputy Secretary of State, President Biden's "Asia czar," a key figure in building the modern Quad, and founder of The Asia Group - to ask whether the U.S. and India can move beyond damage control toward something far more ambitious: a new kind of alliance. Last year, U.S.-India ties hit their lowest point in a quarter century: 50% tariffs over India's Russian oil purchases, a tilt toward Pakistan, and a sharp breakdown of trust. Yet at that very low point, Campbell and Jake Sullivan published "The Case for a U.S. Alliance With India [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/india-alliance-jake-sullivan-kurt-campbell]" in Foreign Affairs, warning Washington risked driving India into its adversaries' arms. Drawing on decades of firsthand diplomacy, Campbell offers a candid insider's read on what went wrong and what might still go right. He reveals why Pakistan has out-maneuvered India in navigating the Trump White House, why his own successor's speech in Delhi drew audible gasps from the audience, and why India's celebrated "strategic autonomy" masks a quiet but unmistakable tilt toward the West. In this episode: * Why Campbell calls India America's most consequential 21st-century partner, and what "escape velocity" means * How he and Sullivan are trying to recast what "alliance" means for a country that will never host U.S. bases * How Pakistan adapted to Trump-era diplomacy more effectively than India * The surprising story of how India went from reluctant Quad participant to its driving force * How India quietly cut its reliance on Russian arms from 80% to under 40% * Campbell's new Asia Group report on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and why it's hitting the Indo-Pacific harder than markets expect * His warning that the South China Sea, not Taiwan, is the likeliest flashpoint for miscalculation Follow and subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. * Follow Kurt Campbell at The Asia Group [https://theasiagroup.com/talent/the-hon-dr-kurt-m-campbell/] or on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/kurt-campbell/]. * Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/] or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] * Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] * Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] * Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care About Why Journalists are Leaving China? | with Yoko Kubota

The day her BYD rideshare driver told her the dashboard screen was a “national secret” … that's when Wall Street Journal correspondent Yoko Kubota knew China had really changed, and maybe it was time to think about leaving. What does the world lose when fewer foreign journalists are reporting from inside China? In this episode, hosts Ray Powell (35-year military veteran) and Jim Carouso (former senior U.S. diplomat) sit down with Yoko Kubota, who spent eight years in Beijing before leaving China and writing a striking farewell column about a society growing alarmingly suspicious of outsiders. From that small, telling BYD moment, Yoko traces how a tightening espionage law, national-security messaging, and rising nationalism seeped into everyday life. As a Japanese reporter for an American paper, she also describes the anti-Japanese sentiment she and her family encountered, from a parents' school chat group to the phrases her young son began repeating, and how the 2024 attacks on Japanese children in Suzhou and Shenzhen deepened her fears. The conversation also digs into her business beat: * Why on-the-ground reporting from inside China still matters and what we lose as it dries up * Why China can be both increasingly confident and deeply wary of outside scrutiny * How China's EV industry went from a punchline to a global powerhouse, and the "zombie" carmakers left in its wake * Why the race for self-driving cars may come down to regulation as much as technology With the press corps thinning – underscored by the recent expulsion of New York Times reporter Vivian Wang – this is an on-the-ground account of an increasingly inaccessible country that still, as Yoko puts it, "won't go away from our lives." Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. * Follow Yoko Kubota on her page [https://www.wsj.com/news/author/yoko-kubota] at the Wall Street Journal, on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/yokokubota/] or on X, @Kubota_Yoko [https://x.com/Kubota_Yoko] * Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] * Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] * Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] * Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care How Indo-Pacific Allies Manage a Volatile and Distracted America? | with Marise Payne

Washington is engaging plenty with its Indo-Pacific allies these days … just not always on the things they want, and too often on things they don't. So how do savvy allies steer that relationship when the world's most powerful partner feels less predictable than ever? To find out, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Marise Payne, Australia's former Defence Minister and Foreign Minister. Marise helped launch AUKUS and grow the Quad, and navigated the first Trump administration from both chairs. Now a distinguished visiting fellow [https://www.hoover.org/profiles/marise-payne] at Stanford's Hoover Institution, Payne brings rare insider perspective on how middle powers keep America engaged and what they must build for themselves when it drifts. In a wide-ranging conversation, Payne unpacks: * Why "fewer Shangri-Las, more submarines" sets up a false choice, and why showing up still matters * The AUKUS reality check: what the shift from the "optimal pathway" means, and the social license challenge facing Canberra * Whether Pillar One is now on a "suboptimal pathway," and the case for driving Pillar Two harder * How the Quad found its feet again after COVID, and why the New Delhi foreign ministers' meeting matters * Reassuring a skeptical ASEAN on nuclear submarines, and the relationship-first diplomacy that made it work * China's "do as I say, not as I do" stance on Japan's remilitarization * The contrast between leading Defence and Foreign Affairs: "straight lines" versus "grasping at wisps of smoke" It's a practitioner's masterclass in alliance management for an era of strategic uncertainty. Essential listening for anyone tracking US-China competition, AUKUS, national defense, diplomacy and the future of the Indo-Pacific. * Follow Marise Payne on Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SenatorMarisePayne/] * Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] * Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] * Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] * Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if Vietnam is Swinging Toward China? | with Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang

Is Vietnam quietly drifting into China's orbit, and what does that mean for the United States and the future of Southeast Asia? Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang explains why Hanoi is hedging harder than ever because, as the Vietnamese saying goes, "when the buffaloes and oxen lock horns, the mosquitoes and flies suffer." In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Dr. Giang, Visiting Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, to unpack his provocative Carnegie essay, "Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction." Giang argues that Vietnam isn't becoming pro-China, it's hedging in a world where US policy feels unpredictable and China is offering concrete benefits: market access, infrastructure, technology, and political reassurance. The conversation moves from geopolitics to economics: US tariffs, transshipment concerns, Vietnam's export boom, and the risk of being crushed between Washington and Beijing. Giang explains Vietnam's delicate formula: stay close enough to China to manage the relationship, but distant enough to preserve its independence. Ray and Jim also dig into Vietnam's defense strategy and its slow move beyond Russian weapons, then go inside Vietnamese politics under General Secretary Tô Lâm, whose consolidation of power is making foreign policy faster, more personal, and more ambitious. In this episode: * Why Vietnam is one of Asia's most important "swing states" * US tariffs, transshipment, and Vietnam's export boom * China's high-speed rail and technology offer * Vietnam's arms diversification beyond Russia * Tô Lâm's consolidation of power and the "Blazing Furnace" anti-corruption campaign * Vietnam's reaction to the Trump-Xi summit Subscribe for weekly Indo-Pacific analysis from a former US military officer and a former US diplomat who've spent their careers in the region. * Follow Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nguyen-khac-giang-60344620/] or on X, @khacgiang [https://x.com/khacgiang] * Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] * Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] * Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] * Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if a U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral can Deter China? | with Lisa Curtis and Ryan Claffey

Japan sits just 68 miles from Taiwan, while the Philippines is even closer at 61. As one guest puts it, “You can’t invade Taiwan if you don’t control the northern Philippines.” That geography is exactly why three countries - the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines - are quietly building what may become the backbone of deterrence in the Western Pacific. In this episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Lisa Curtis, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and research assistant Ryan Claffey to discuss their report: “U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation: The Bedrock of a New U.S. Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy [https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/u-s-japan-philippines-trilateral-cooperation].” The conversation covers: * Why the First Island Chain, from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, is the most strategically consequential geography in the world today * How a bankrupt Subic Bay shipyard nearly fell into Chinese hands and is now being transformed into a military-commercial hub central to U.S. forward posture * The expansion of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in northern Luzon and what permanent missile deployments in Batanes would mean for deterrence across the Luzon Strait * Whether Trump’s transactional approach to Beijing and the prospect of a trade-focused summit could undermine allied solidarity * Philippine political risks, including the Sara Duterte faction and what a change in Manila’s leadership could mean for the alliance * Japan’s growing security role under Prime Minister Takaichi, from record defense spending to missile deployments across the Southwest Islands * The race for critical minerals, the Luzon Economic Corridor, and how economic resilience underpins the security architecture * Why this trilateral could become the foundation for a broader networked deterrence strategy across the Indo-Pacific Whether you’re following the South China Sea, Taiwan, U.S.-China competition, Japan’s security pivot, or the future of Indo-Pacific alliances, this episode breaks down why the U.S.-Japan-Philippines triangle may become one of the region’s most important strategic partnerships. 👉 Follow Lisa Curtis on on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/lisa-curtis-08204b50/] or X, @LisaCurtisDC [https://x.com/LisaCurtisDC]; follow Ryan Claffey on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanclaffey/] or X, @RyanHClaffey [https://x.com/RyanHClaffey] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, [https://bowergroupasia.com/]a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific