From Walmart to Wall Street: Who Is Really Winning in This Economy?

From Walmart to Wall Street: Who Is Really Winning in This Economy?

In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Miriam Gottfried and Telis Demos analyze the K-shaped economy, contrasting flourishing corporate capital expenditures—driven by massive AI investment from companies like Nvidia—with the struggling consumer economy. They discuss Nvidia's risks ahead of its earnings this upcoming week, including rising chip costs and the troubles of its key customer OpenAI. The discussion shifts to soaring wholesale prices rising faster than consumer prices all while pressuring corporate margins. They also look ahead to earnings reports from retailers Target and Walmart, and preview earnings for Home Depot and Lowe's, which face headwinds from high mortgage rates and a muted spring housing market. After the break, Adam Josephson, founder of consumer-focused research company Sakonnet Research, joins the show to explain the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. He argues that a buoyant financial economy, where large banks are seeing asset growth from lending to hedge funds and private credit, is masking a deeper consumer weakness. Josephson discusses the gap between corporate earnings and everyone else. He says that while real average weekly earnings have seen little growth, corporate profit margins are at all-time highs. He details how this economic pressure on the consumer is reflected in falling box shipments, the rise of discount retailers, and the growing share of spending on healthcare. He warns that the market is being propped up by excessive financial leverage, and suggests ways investors can think defensively. This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, Heard on the Street’s banking and money columnist, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ’s investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com [takeontheweek@wsj.com]. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel [https://www.youtube.com/@WSJPodcasts/podcasts] or the video page of [https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-take-on-the-week?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]WSJ.com [http://wsj.com] Further Reading OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO [https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Nvidia Is Buying the Chip Supply Chain [https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-is-buying-the-chip-supply-chain-871db5e3?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  Housing Market’s Spring Is Shaping Up as a Bust After April Sales Were Flat [https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/housing-markets-spring-is-shaping-up-as-a-bust-after-april-sales-were-flat-7a908092?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Elon Musk Testifies He Was a ‘Fool’ to Fund OpenAI [https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/elon-musk-takes-stand-in-second-day-of-trial-against-openai-59d50fbf?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Inflation Soared to 3.8% in April, Driven by Gasoline Prices [https://www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-inflation-report-april-62b11096?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Wholesale Inflation Shot Higher in April [https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/wholesale-inflation-shot-higher-in-april-f91d6fc0?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com [https://www.wsj.com/?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], WSJ’s Heard on The Street Column [https://www.wsj.com/news/heard-on-the-street?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], and WSJ’s Live Markets blog [https://www.wsj.com/finance?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter [https://www.wsj.com/newsletters/markets-am?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD].  Follow Miriam Gottfried here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/miriam-gottfried-9a92934/] and Telis Demos here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/telis-demos-b88b741]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Billionaire Investor on the Data Center Boom and Oil's Breaking Point

In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Miriam Gottfried and Telis Demos discuss what’s beyond the surge in semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Micron. They examine economist Ed Yardeni’s "Buzz Lightyear theory"—which says that demand for compute power will increase to infinity and beyond—that has led to S&P 500 earnings growth expectations surpassing the 2000 tech bubble peak. Plus, they analyze the impact of the fatal hantavirus outbreak on cruise-line stocks. After the break, billionaire philanthropist and former energy trader John Arnold joins Miriam and Telis at a live taping of the show at the WSJ’s Future of Everything event. Arnold offers an analysis of how the U.S.-Iran conflict is shaping oil markets and discusses the factors preventing crude oil from reaching initial forecasts of $150 to $200 a barrel. He details how the Iran war underscores America's energy-security strengths, which should prompt hyperscalers to prioritize the U.S. for data-center expansion over Middle Eastern alternatives. Finally, he talks about a new focus of Arnold Ventures—the call for guardrails on prediction markets and sports betting—arguing that gambling regulation should remain under state jurisdiction rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, Heard on the Street’s banking and money columnist, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ’s investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com [takeontheweek@wsj.com]. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel [https://www.youtube.com/@WSJPodcasts/podcasts] or the video page of [https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-take-on-the-week?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]WSJ.com [http://wsj.com] Further Reading: Memory Makers Are the Hottest Thing in Tech. Are They Making Too Much Money? [https://www.wsj.com/tech/memory-makers-are-the-hottest-thing-in-tech-are-they-making-too-much-money-bad375da?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets [https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] The 33-Day ‘Atlantic Odyssey’ That Turned Into a Hantavirus Nightmare [https://www.wsj.com/world/the-33-day-atlantic-odyssey-that-turned-into-a-hantavirus-nightmare-ae8c7f48?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] U.S. Regulator Sues New York State for Prediction Markets Crackdown [https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/u-s-regulator-sues-new-york-state-for-prediction-markets-crackdown-d94657ef?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com [https://www.wsj.com/?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], WSJ’s Heard on The Street Column [https://www.wsj.com/news/heard-on-the-street?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], and WSJ’s Live Markets blog [https://www.wsj.com/finance?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter [https://www.wsj.com/newsletters/markets-am?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]. Follow Miriam Gottfried here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/miriam-gottfried-9a92934/] and Telis Demos here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/telis-demos-b88b741].  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Josh Brown’s ‘HALO’ Stocks Strategy: Investing in What AI Can’t Replicate

In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Telis Demos and Miriam Gottfried examine the shifting power dynamics at the Federal Reserve as Kevin Warsh’s chair nomination moves toward confirmation. Then, they break down some of the biggest earnings reports from this week, including private markets giants Apollo Management, KKR, and Sixth Street Specialty Lending. Plus, they look ahead to Disney and McDonald’s earnings, and talk about how these companies are keeping up with consumers.  Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management and co-host of The Compound and Friends podcast, explains his "HALO" framework—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence—and why the era of "capital light" software dominance is facing an existential threat from AI. Brown details why physical incumbents like Caterpillar, McDonalds, and Walmart are emerging as the preferred AI trades, as investors seek refuge in companies with physical moats that cannot be replicated by large language models.  This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, Heard on the Street’s banking and money columnist, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ’s investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com [takeontheweek@wsj.com]. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel [https://www.youtube.com/@WSJPodcasts/podcasts] or the video page of [https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-take-on-the-week?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]WSJ.com [http://wsj.com] Further Reading Wall Street’s Latest Bet Is on ‘HALO’ Companies With AI Immunity [https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/wall-streets-latest-bet-is-on-halo-companies-with-ai-immunity-170ca071?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Wall Street Is Sorting Software Companies Into Winners and Losers [https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-is-sorting-software-companies-into-winners-and-losers-e44fe73b?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Traders Now See Rate Hike as More Likely Than Rate Cut This Year [https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-interest-rate-decision-earnings-04-29-2026/card/traders-now-see-rate-hike-as-more-likely-than-rate-cut-this-year-6TCuZ7WHym5a9XvG8TAf?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  Senate Banking Committee Advances Kevin Warsh to be Next Fed Chair [https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-interest-rate-decision-earnings-04-29-2026/card/senate-banking-committee-advances-kevin-warsh-to-be-next-fed-chair-pKcDzgHPcvgTbr2FyNEP?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  Powell to Remain on Fed Board, Citing Legal Pressure From Trump [https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-closes-powell-era-with-rates-on-hold-and-divide-over-what-comes-next-0aec10c2?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Private-Credit Warning Signs Flash After Blue Owl Unloads $1.4 Billion in Assets [https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-credit-warning-signs-flash-after-blue-owl-unloads-1-4-billion-in-assets-02494fab?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] An Exodus of Money Endangers Wall Street’s Private-Credit Craze [https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/an-exodus-of-money-endangers-wall-streets-private-credit-craze-d0fbb8af?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com [https://www.wsj.com/?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], WSJ’s Heard on The Street Column [https://www.wsj.com/news/heard-on-the-street?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], and WSJ’s Live Markets blog [https://www.wsj.com/finance?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter [https://www.wsj.com/newsletters/markets-am?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]. Follow Miriam Gottfried here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/miriam-gottfried-9a92934/] and Telis Demos here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/telis-demos-b88b741].  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Prediction Markets: Investing, Gambling or a Haven for Insider Trading?

In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Miriam Gottfried and Telis Demos look at why the Magnificent Seven stocks—including Microsoft, Meta, and Google parent Alphabet—are losing their luster. Are investors finally demanding to see results from AI spending, or are they content with the continued AI infrastructure spending? Then, they dive into the residential real-estate cycle, where we’ve seen national rent growth hit a decade low. Could deeply discounted multifamily Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REITs, be the value play of the year?  Then, Telis and Miriam confront prediction markets, which have been in the news lately for high-profile arrests of insiders accused of trading on confidential information. They are joined by former Susquehanna International Group trader Andrew Courtney, co-founder of prediction markets platform Kalshinomics, who digs into the mechanics of these zero-sum contracts, insider trading and the ongoing legal battles with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission over their classification. Courtney details how professional market makers provide the liquidity that distinguishes them from a bet against the house. And he gives his take on how investors should engage with prediction markets. This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, Heard on the Street’s banking and money columnist, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ’s investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com [takeontheweek@wsj.com]. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel [https://www.youtube.com/@WSJPodcasts/podcasts] or the video page of [https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-take-on-the-week?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]WSJ.com [http://wsj.com] Further Reading U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information to Bet on Maduro’s Ouster [https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/u-s-soldier-in-maduro-raid-is-charged-with-making-bets-on-leaders-ouster-535caf49?st=bLYH61%20?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  White House Warns Staff Not to Place Bets on Prediction Markets Amid Iran War [https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/white-house-warns-staff-not-to-place-bets-on-prediction-markets-amid-iran-war-3780668f?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Trio of Polymarket Accounts Made $600,000 Betting on Iran Cease-Fire [https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-04-08-2026/card/trio-of-polymarket-accounts-made-600-000-betting-on-iran-cease-fire-tDMRqib5dscCBrVrED0a?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_8&mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Court Sides With Kalshi in Major Ruling for Prediction Markets [https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-04-06-2026/card/court-sides-with-kalshi-in-major-ruling-for-prediction-markets-fIE7TZLgWNZLgBv8cPIE?mod=Searchresults&pos=5&page=1&mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] The AI Spending Spree Is Far from Over [https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-ai-spending-spree-is-far-from-over-026c17df?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] The U.S. Has More Fancy Apartments Than It Is Able to Fill [https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/the-u-s-has-more-fancy-apartments-than-it-is-able-to-fill-f7bca968?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] Rent Price Increase Puts Market on Path to Landlord-Friendly Environment [https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/rent-price-increase-landlord-friendly-market-8ec25de5?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com [https://www.wsj.com/?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], WSJ’s Heard on The Street Column [https://www.wsj.com/news/heard-on-the-street?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], and WSJ’s Live Markets blog [https://www.wsj.com/finance?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter [https://www.wsj.com/newsletters/markets-am?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD].  Follow Miriam Gottfried here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/miriam-gottfried-9a92934/] and Telis Demos here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/telis-demos-b88b741].  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Why This Economist Says Immigration Crackdown is Reshaping U.S. Job Growth

In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Miriam Gottfried and Telis Demos take off with a conversation on airlines. Alaska, Southwest, United and American are all reporting this upcoming week. Telis and Miriam get into how these carriers are dealing with skyrocketing fuel prices. Plus, they explore why luxury giants like LVMH and Kering are cooling even as the S&P 500 clears the 7,000 mark. They also talk about the mounting political drama surrounding the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve.  After the break, Miriam and Telis are joined by Wendy Edelberg, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank to get into how an immigration crackdown may explain why the U.S. jobs numbers have been so volatile. Edelberg explains why traditional job growth numbers are no longer a reliable gauge of economic health and why a "breakeven" rate of zero jobs might actually signal a strong market under the current immigration policy shift, and how the U.S. labor market is becoming like Japan’s. Finally, she offers some insight on why the Fed may need to rethink its calculus on interest rates as job growth potentially turns negative. This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, Heard on the Street’s banking and money columnist, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ’s investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com [takeontheweek@wsj.com]. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel [https://www.youtube.com/@WSJPodcasts/podcasts] or the video page of [https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-take-on-the-week?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]WSJ.com [http://wsj.com] Further Reading Spirit’s Bankruptcy Exit in Flux as Jet Fuel Prices Surge [https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/spirits-bankruptcy-exit-in-flux-as-jet-fuel-prices-surge-4a9f9dba?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  Delta’s Ace in the Hole for Surging Jet Fuel Costs: Its Own Refinery [https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/deltas-ace-in-the-hole-for-surging-jet-fuel-costs-its-own-refinery-6f0c3057?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  How Airline Passengers Are Being Hit by the Jet-Fuel Crunch [https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/airline-flight-cost-jet-fuel-impact-6ade2e32?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  Facing Soaring Fuel Costs, Delta Tells Customers to Plan for Pricier Flights [https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/delta-earnings-q1-2026-dal-stock-6449a105?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Kevin Warsh Is Caught in an Unprecedented Standoff [https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trumps-fed-chair-pick-is-caught-in-an-unprecedented-standoff-5aa915a8?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  Wall Street Is Whiffing on Its Economic Forecasts [https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/wall-street-prognosticators-struggle-in-whipsawing-jobs-market-5fade369?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]  Breaking Down the Booming March Jobs Report [https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/breaking-down-the-booming-march-jobs-report-a11a31c7?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD] For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com [https://www.wsj.com/?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], WSJ’s Heard on The Street Column [https://www.wsj.com/news/heard-on-the-street?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD], and WSJ’s Live Markets blog [https://www.wsj.com/finance?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter [https://www.wsj.com/newsletters/markets-am?mod=WSJ_TOTWPOD]. Follow Miriam Gottfried here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/miriam-gottfried-9a92934/] and Telis Demos here [https://www.linkedin.com/in/telis-demos-b88b741].  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]