The attention war: ceasefire one minute, missiles the next

Iran attacked: What the weekend strikes reveal — and Britain's anti-migration moment

The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can push?  Britain's anti-migration fracture has moved from political rhetoric to street-level reality — and with the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years about to take office, the question isn't whether it escalates, but where.  This week, Clionadh and Bron break down the weekend's strikes on Iran, why the Hormuz closure matters more than the bombs, and what the MoU's fragility tells us about who really holds the cards. They look at why Tehran gains from the chaos, what the US retaliation did and didn't achieve, and why a ceasefire that was always a stopgap is now visibly in question.  They also explore the UK's anti-migration escalation, examine how one attack spiraled into nationwide unrest, and connect the deeper thread: state failure, institutional decay, and the erosion of public trust, at home and abroad. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]

Iran deal confusion, Starmer out, Colombia’s rightward shift, and UK anti-migration anger

The talks are “looking good”, according to Washington. Iran wants sanctions relief, Trump looks desperate to get out, and Israel is still not convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending — or is Tehran walking away with the money, the leverage, and most of the cards? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron unpack the latest US-Iran talks in Switzerland, why the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz matters, and what this supposed progress really amounts to. They look at whether Trump is trying to wash his hands of a war he failed to finish, why Lebanon remains a major fault line in any agreement, and why a deal that sounds stabilising on paper could leave Iran in a much stronger position in practice. They also discuss Colombia’s rightward turn and what a tougher security agenda could mean for violence and the state, before turning to Keir Starmer’s resignation, rising anti-migration tensions in the UK, and what Britain’s increasingly combustible political mood might produce next. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]

Is this the end of the Iran war?

The US says a deal is close. Iran wants sanctions relief. Israel isn't convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending, or are we just entering a new phase? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the latest ceasefire negotiations, why Pakistan has become a key diplomatic player, what reopening the Strait of Hormuz really means, and why peace agreements can be far more fragile than they appear. They also discuss the latest tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, why some conflicts never really end, and the World Cup moments everyone is talking about, from Scotland's historic win to the DRC fans stealing the show.  For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]

The Horn of Africa Crisis the West is getting completely wrong

The Horn of Africa is the most consequential and least understood region in the world right now and Western analysis is making it worse. In this episode, ACLED founder Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's regional experts to break down dynamics in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Russia and China are watching. But it's the UAE and Saudi Arabia that are in the room, funding factions, brokering deals, and projecting power in ways that Western foreign policy simply isn't built to see. They discuss why the Sudan conflict defies standard narratives about civil war, what the Ethiopia war reveals about the limits of international intervention and how Eritrea's role is almost entirely absent from Western coverage.  Plus - with eyes on Iran and the Middle East, why The Gulf states' strategic interests remain in the Horn. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]

Iran talks: The real stakes no one is talking about

The peace talks continue between Iran and the U.S, but who actually wants a deal, and what does "winning" even mean for each side? Professor Clionadh Raleigh chats with Bron Mills about the real strategic interests at play: what the US needs, what Iran's leadership can actually accept, and what the regional picture looks like if talks collapse or succeed. Then: what is the point from here? With negotiations fragile and red lines on all sides, we assess what a credible outcome looks like, and whether one is actually possible. Beyond Iran, this week's episode covers the full sweep of global flashpoints. Lebanon's fragile recovery and what's driving the latest tensions. Israel's strategic position and the risks of renewed escalation. Colombia's worsening armed conflict and the overlooked violence reshaping the country. The growing threat to critical seabed cable infrastructure, an underreported front in the new era of great power competition. And Ethiopia, where instability continues to deepen with little international attention. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]