Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6kkYe3l9RI] Corn Yield Bet 3:31 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6kkYe3l9RI&t=211s] Export Sales 10:41 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6kkYe3l9RI&t=641s] Flash Sales 11:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6kkYe3l9RI&t=710s] Wet July 15:26 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6kkYe3l9RI&t=926s] Cattle Selloff 20:11 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6kkYe3l9RI&t=1211s] US Dollar Rally 🎯 US Export Sales Slide While New Crop Corn Surges 🚀 | Drought Relief & Cattle Market Shakeup 🌽💥 📉 Grains in Motion! US corn export sales dropped 47% from last week, landing at just 340,900mt (13 mil bushels). But don’t panic—new crop corn crushed expectations with 1.9mmt (74 mil bushels) in sales! 🙌 🌱 Soybean bulls got a boost too! Net sales hit 349,200mt, exceeding estimates and climbing from last week. New crop beans came in strong at 429,500mt (16 mil bushels). 🌾 Wheat took a step back—592,100mt in sales, down 17%, but still matching the 4-week average. 🚨 Flash Sales Frenzy! The USDA reported a wave of flash sales Thursday: 🇨🇴 100k mt corn to Colombia 🇰🇷 140k mt corn to South Korea ❓ 136k mt corn to unknown destinations 🇳🇬 100k mt of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria 📦 All for 2025/26 delivery! 🌧️ Corn Belt Drought Fades The latest USDA Drought Monitor brought good news: ✅ Conditions improved in MN, IA, IL & IN 📉 Drought in the Corn Belt is now at just 2.4%—down from 32% earlier this year! 📌 National Drought Stats: • Corn: 7% 🌽 • Soybeans: 5% 🌱 • Winter Wheat: 30% ❄️ • Spring Wheat: 38% 🌾 • Cattle: 14% 🐄 📉 Cattle Collapse or Just a Blip? 🐂 After new all-time highs, cattle futures got clobbered Thursday—feeder contracts hit limit down 📉 Some fear the top is in, but remember: this market has bounced back before. With tight supplies & strong beef demand, fundamentals still look solid 💪 💵 Dollar Roars in July The US Dollar Index posted a 5% gain in July—its best month since Dec 2024! 💹 ✅ Resilient economy ✅ Hawkish Fed ✅ Easing trade tensions But beware: tariffs & political pressure could shake things up soon... 👍 Like, subscribe & comment your take on export trends, cattle futures, or the dollar’s next move! #Corn [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/corn] #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #Wheat [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/wheat] #Cattle [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/cattle] #USDollar [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/usdollar] #DroughtUpdate [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/droughtupdate] #USDA [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/usda] #AgMarkets [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agmarkets] #GrainMarketing [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/grainmarketing] #FarmNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/farmnews] 🌽📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWsRlLqDHQQ] 120mil Soybean Acres 3:38 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWsRlLqDHQQ&t=218s] Soybean Selloff 4:51 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWsRlLqDHQQ&t=291s] Excessive Rain? 7:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWsRlLqDHQQ&t=470s] Ethanol Production 8:58 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWsRlLqDHQQ&t=538s] GDP and the Haters 🌱 Brazil's Monster Soy Crop & Market Fallout! 🌎💥 🚨 Big headlines this week from Brazil! DATAGRO pegs their next soybean crop at a jaw-dropping 182.9 MMT 🤯—well above USDA’s 175 MMT estimate. That’s +8.2% from last year’s record. 🇧🇷🌱 Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 120+ million soybean acres, dwarfing the 82.5 million in the U.S. Corn crop? Also record-setting at 140.9 MMT, says DATAGRO. 📈🌽 📉 Soybean futures keep sliding for a fourth straight day. November 2025 dropped nearly 14 cents to $9.96, the lowest since April. Why? 👉 Favorable weather 🌧️, weak Chinese demand 🇨🇳, and bearish momentum across the soy complex. Even soybean meal hit contract lows. Ouch. 🛑 🌧️ Rain, rain, and more rain in parts of the Corn Belt! Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Illinois have been soaked—over 4 inches in just 7 days. Some Iowa counties have seen 12+ inches in the past month! Drier days are expected, but more rain may return next week. ☁️🌦️ ⛽ Ethanol update: Weekly U.S. production hit 1.1 million barrels/day, +1.7% on the week. Stocks rose to 24.7 million barrels, staying well above seasonal norms. Margins? Still solid, per Reuters. 💵🛢️ 📊 The U.S. economy is on fire 🔥! Q2 GDP came in at +3.0%, smashing expectations. The big driver? Imports plunged 30% year-over-year—thanks, tariffs. 🏛️ Fed held rates steady, but the dollar surged, notching its biggest 5-day rally since 2022! 💸🇺🇸 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to like, subscribe, and share if you enjoy staying ahead of the ag game! 🌽📰💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🎥 Severe Storms Slam Midwest + Market Moves & China Soy Woes ⚡🌽💼 Hey everyone! Big weather and market headlines to cover today — let's get into it 👇 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_yDibWJ_Z4] Derecho Update 3:46 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_yDibWJ_Z4&t=226s] Corn and Soybean Price Action 5:45 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_yDibWJ_Z4&t=345s] Govt Payments?? 8:26 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_yDibWJ_Z4&t=506s] Soy Demand Problems (China) 9:30 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_yDibWJ_Z4&t=570s] US/China Talks 10:51 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_yDibWJ_Z4&t=651s] Oil Refiners 🌪️ Midwest Storms Cause Chaos Severe storms tore through the Upper Midwest on Monday night with wind gusts up to 130 mph reported from eastern South Dakota to western Wisconsin. Crops like sorghum sudan and corn were knocked flat in spots, and a South Dakota dairy suffered major structural damage. Tornadoes and large hail also hit parts of Iowa and South Dakota. Was it a derecho? Still unclear. 🤔 💨 CropProphet has a killer wind speed map by county (see below). Despite the destruction, crop damage appears minimal based on early reports. Remember: the 2023 derecho didn’t crush yields either. 🌾 📉 Markets Take Another Hit Corn and soybean futures were down for the 3rd straight session: Dec25 Corn: ⬇️ 3¢ to $4.11/bu Nov25 Soybeans: ⬇️ 2¢ to $10.10/bu Wheat also dropped: Dec25 SRW: ⬇️ 9¢ to $5.50/bu Dec25 HRW: ⬇️ 7¢ to $5.40/bu Cooler weather + rain = bearish sentiment 📉🌧️ 🐖 China Soybean Demand Weakens China’s Q4 soy demand looks soft due to: Record early-year imports Weak feed sector demand Crushing margins still ugly 😬 Some plants have shut down for lack of storage. And still — no US new crop soy sales to China yet. Argentina meal is doing the heavy lifting. 📊 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks Continue Trade talks in Stockholm ended without a new tariff truce agreement, but more discussions are planned. Deadline: August 12. Will Trump approve an extension? Decision coming soon. 🤝🕰️ 🛢️ Refiners vs. Biofuels The AFPM is fighting Trump’s push to boost ethanol mandates to E15, saying it could cost refiners $70 billion. They're also blaming proposed EPA rules for refinery shutdowns — but the real issue may be declining gasoline demand. ⛽📉 👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more ag + market updates every week! #StormDamage [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/stormdamage] #GrainMarkets [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/grainmarkets] #ChinaSoy [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/chinasoy] #Derecho [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/derecho] #Ethanol [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/ethanol] #TradeTalks [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/tradetalks] #AgNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agnews] #CornBelt [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/cornbelt] #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #FarmingNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/farmingnews] #TrumpTariffs [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/trumptariffs]

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qqo2VhX2Is] Wind Event 3:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qqo2VhX2Is&t=180s] Crop Conditions 7:38 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qqo2VhX2Is&t=458s] Big Brazil Crop 8:40 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qqo2VhX2Is&t=520s] US/China Update 10:13 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qqo2VhX2Is&t=613s] US Dollar 11:08 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qqo2VhX2Is&t=668s] Grain Shipments 11:52 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qqo2VhX2Is&t=712s] Flash Sales 🌪️ Severe Storms Rip Through the Northern Corn Belt 🌽⚡ Severe thunderstorms powered by extreme heat and humidity blasted across the Northern Plains and into the northern Corn Belt on Monday evening. 💨 Wind gusts reached an insane 134 mph in northern Iowa, with tornadoes reported in South Dakota and Iowa. Early Tuesday, storms continued in eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and western Illinois—though the worst winds have calmed. ⚠️ Widespread power outages were reported. 📍 See storm maps below! 📉 Crop Condition Update 🌱 🔹 Corn: 73% rated good to excellent—slightly down from last week but still the 2nd best in a decade! 🔹 Soybeans: 70% rated good to excellent, the best for this time since 2020! 🔹 Spring Wheat: Declines again this week—only 49% rated good to excellent. 🔹 Winter Wheat: 80% harvested nationwide; nearly complete in TX, OK, KS. 🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Harvest Lags but Outlook Grows 🌽 Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest is behind last year—just 68% harvested vs. 91% this time last year. Despite delays, AgRural raised their total corn production estimate to a record 136.3mmt! 🚜 Dry weather helped boost weekly harvest pace. 🤝 US-China Trade Talks Continue in Stockholm 🥢 Officials met for over 5 hours Monday—no deal yet, but a 90-day truce extension is likely. The US paused some tech export controls to support talks. 🔍 No new Chinese soybean buys yet, but the market expects them soon. 🇨🇳 China could account for ~19% of US soybean demand this year. 💵 US Dollar Surges on Trade Optimism 📈 The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.8% on Monday—its biggest move since May. The rally was fueled by the new US-EU trade deal and expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady this week. 🚢 US Export Inspections Surprise to the Upside 📦 ✔️ Corn: 1.5mmt inspected—+55% vs. last week ✔️ Soybeans: 409,714mt—near the high end of estimates ❌ Wheat: 288,793mt—well below expectations 📢 Flash Sales Announced! 💼 🗓️ Monday’s USDA report showed big corn sales: 🇲🇽 225,000mt to Mexico (25/26 MY) ❓ 229,000mt to unknown (35k for 24/25, 194k for 25/26) 💰 Markets watching closely as new crop sales ramp up. 📌 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! 🧠 Stay informed, stay ahead. More weather, markets, and updates coming your way! #GrainMarkets [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/grainmarkets] #CornBelt [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/cornbelt] #CropConditions [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/cropconditions] #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #Wheat [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/wheat] https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/usda

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0xNWJxV1tg] US Weather, Giant Crop 2:42 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0xNWJxV1tg&t=162s] US/EU Trade Deal 4:13 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0xNWJxV1tg&t=253s] US and China Talks 8:05 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0xNWJxV1tg&t=485s] The Funds 8:53 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0xNWJxV1tg&t=533s] Cattle on Feed 11:13 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0xNWJxV1tg&t=673s] Argentina Taxes 12:09 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0xNWJxV1tg&t=729s] China Heat 13:27 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0xNWJxV1tg&t=807s] Flash Sales 🌽 Corn Belt Rain & Cooldown Incoming! 🌧️🌬️ Rain is sweeping across the Central US Corn Belt this morning as a major system rolls through Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Weekend totals were best in SE Iowa, central IL, southern MN, northern IN, and OH. The 7-day forecast stays wet, and after two more hot days, a cool front arrives by Wednesday with temps 5–12°F below normal! A cooler August during grain fill? That’s typically bullish for yields... and bearish for markets. 🌡️📉 🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺 Big US–EU Trade Deal Signed! The US and EU reached a major trade agreement Sunday. Starting Friday: 🔹 15% tariff on EU imports 🔹 EU to invest $600B in the US 🔹 EU to buy $750B in US energy 🔹 No new US tariffs on exports President Trump says the deal will benefit US agriculture, but specifics are TBD. The EU is already the #4 buyer of US ag goods, accounting for $12.8B in 2024. 🌍🚢 🇨🇳 US–China Truce Extension Talks Officials are meeting today in Stockholm to extend the trade truce another 90 days. 🔸 Without it, tariffs would snap back to 145% (on Chinese goods) and 125% (on US exports)! 🔸 A Trump–Xi meeting may happen in late October 🔸 China could ease up on fentanyl-linked goods 🔸 US hopes for increased Chinese ag purchases 🌾🤞 📉 Funds Shift Positions in Corn, Soy & Wheat CFTC's latest COT report shows: 🟢 Funds bought 8k corn contracts 🟢 Funds bought 26k soybean contracts 🟢 Funds bought 9k SRW wheat contracts 🥩 Cattle on Feed: Bullish Surprise! Friday’s report showed: 📉 June placements: 1.4mil head (6% below expectations) 📉 Total on feed: 11.1mil (1% below pre-report guess) ➡️ A bullish setup... but will record-high futures respond? 🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Export Tariffs President Milei cuts: 🔻 Soybean meal/oil: 31% → 24.5% 🔻 Soybeans: 33% → 26% 🔻 Corn: 12% → 9.5% 🔻 Select beef: 6.75% → 5% Milei still sees tariffs as a “necessary evil” for balancing the budget, but farmers say they hurt worse than natural disasters. 🇦🇷💸 🔥 China’s Crop Heat Stress Continues China faces ongoing drought and heat: 🌡️ Threatens 2025/26 corn and wheat output 📉 Analysts say wheat could fall 5% from last year 🌾 90–95% of China’s wheat is winter wheat USDA still sees modest increases—but the heat wave could say otherwise! 🚢 USDA Flash Sales Update 📢 Big Friday moves: 🇲🇽 Mexico: • 102,870mt corn (4mil bu) • 142,500mt soybeans (5mil bu) 🇰🇷 South Korea: • 140,000mt corn (6mil bu) 👉 2025/26 marketing year starts off strong!