Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A] US Downgrade 2:53 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=173s] Corn Price Action 4:42 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=282s] US Weather 7:48 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=468s] Argentina Flooding 9:14 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=554s] The Funds 11:04 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=664s] India and Ethanol 📉 US Credit Downgrade Sparks Market Jitters 🇺🇸💥 Moody's has officially downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, stripping the nation of its final triple-A from any major agency. The move was driven by rising deficits, ballooning interest costs, and a lack of fiscal discipline. While not expected to spark immediate chaos, the downgrade could slowly increase borrowing costs. 💬 Meanwhile, the "Sell America" trade is back: 📉 Stocks ⬇️ 📉 Bonds ⬇️ (rates ⬆️) 💵 Dollar ⬇️ 🌎 Only 11 countries now hold a triple-A rating from Moody’s. 🌽 Corn Market Moves Corn futures slid 5¢ on Friday, with good weather and fast planting keeping prices under pressure. Over 60% of US corn is in the ground, ahead of average. But exports are strong—second best in 10 years! 🌦️ Radar Watch Storms are lighting up the Corn Belt! 🌩️ Rainfall expected in: • ND, SD, IA, MO • Heaviest rain: southern IA, northern MO, southern IL & IN, western KY 🌧️ Moisture could boost crop development in dry spots. 🇦🇷 Argentina Flooding Too much of a good thing? Parts of Buenos Aires saw 6–10 inches of rain! 🌊 Soy harvest delays continue, and sales have dropped to decade-lows. • Soybean meal ⬇️ • Soybean oil ⬆️ (after recent plunge) 📊 Fund Positioning • Corn: Biggest short since Oct '24 • SRW Wheat: Most short since Nov '23 • Soybeans: Funds were light buyers last week 🌍 US-India Ethanol Talks The US wants India to open its market to fuel-grade ethanol. But India’s pushing domestic production and is cautious of foreign suppliers flooding the market. 🇮🇳⛽ 👉 Subscribe for daily ag + macro updates! Drop your thoughts in the comments 💬 #GrainMarkets [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/grainmarkets] #USCreditDowngrade [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/uscreditdowngrade] #Corn [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/corn] #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #Moody [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/moody]'s #Argentina [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/argentina] #Ethanol [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/ethanol] #Commodities [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/commodities] #AgNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agnews] 🌾💰📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs] Soybean Oil Crash 2:16 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=136s] US Weather / Drought 6:39 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=399s] Meat Demand and Ozempic 9:44 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=584s] NOPA Crush Report 12:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=720s] Export Sales 15:10 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=910s] Kansas Wheat Tour 16:53 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=1013s] CONAB Estimates 19:25 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=1165s] SpaceX and Farming 🌱 Big Moves in Biofuels, Drought, and Meat Demand! 🚜🔥 🛢️ EPA Biofuel Blend Drama The EPA just sent a new rule to the White House. 👀 Rumors suggest 2026 diesel blending targets may come in way below industry hopes — and soybean oil futures reacted hard, falling limit down. 📉 🌾 USDA Drought Monitor Update Drought is creeping across key crop states. 😬 Corn: 22% 🌽 | Soybeans: 17% 🌱 | Winter Wheat: 23% 🌾 🍗 Ozempic Boosting Meat Demand? Weight-loss meds like Ozempic 💉 are driving higher chicken and beef consumption, says JBS — folks on GLP-1s want more protein! 🐔🥩 🧼 NOPA Crush Report April soybean crush dipped from March but still hit a record for the month 📊. Soybean oil stocks rose slightly but remain the lowest for April since 2015. 🌍 Strong US Corn Exports Corn export sales beat expectations! 🌽💪 Soybeans and wheat? A bit more sluggish 🐢📉 🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Surprise Highest projected yield since 2021! Timely spring rains helped wheat scouts forecast 53 bpa vs the usual 44.3. USDA's still a bit more conservative — but things are looking up! ☁️➡️🌧️ 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook Raised Conab raised Brazil’s corn and soybean forecasts 🌽🇧🇷 Favorable rains, big second corn crop, and rising ethanol demand are all supporting the boom. 📈 🚀 Starlink x CNH = Farming Future Precision ag just got a boost! CNH teams up with SpaceX to bring Starlink satellite internet to the most remote fields. 🌐🛰️ Like, comment, and subscribe to stay updated with real ag news that matters 👇 #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #Corn [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/corn] #Wheat [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/wheat] #Biofuels [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/biofuels] #Starlink [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/starlink] #Ozempic [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/ozempic] #Farmers [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/farmers] #AgNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agnews] #Commodities [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/commodities] 🌽📈🛰️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw] Soybean Rally 1:18 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=78s] EPA and Bean Oil Selloff 3:36 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=216s] Kansas Wheat Tour 6:28 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=388s] Russia Wheat Update 8:14 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=494s] Tyson CEO and Cattle 11:22 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=682s] Ethanol Production 🌱 Soybeans Rally Again! Soybean futures climbed for the fifth straight day on Wednesday! 📈 The July25 contract edged up near $10.78/bu, fueled by: 🔹 A 90-day tariff truce between 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳 🔹 A House proposal to extend the 45Z tax credit 🔹 Hopes for renewed Phase One-style trade with China But... 🌧️ storm clouds rolled in Thursday morning with lower prices amid EPA uncertainty and crashing crude. Full story below 👇 ⚙️ EPA & Renewable Fuel Standard EPA Chief Lee Zeldin 🏛️ says new RVOs are coming soon! 🔸 Final rule expected in months 🔸 Public comment period ahead 🔸 Push for higher volume levels already underway Still, soybean oil futures are diving this morning 💥, possibly due to RVO delays and weak crude oil prices. 🌾 Wheat Tour Surprises Kansas wheat tour is off to a strong start! 🌾 📍 Northern KS: 50.5 bpa (above 5-yr avg) 📍 SW Kansas: 53.3 bpa 😲 USDA now rates 48% of Kansas wheat as good to excellent vs. 31% on average. But issues like drought and wheat streak mosaic still linger. ❄️ Russian Crop Weather Update Minimal damage from May frosts ❄️ 📉 Only 247K acres affected (10% of last year’s loss) But dry soils now pose the biggest risk. 🌵 🥩 Cattle Market Tension Tyson says herd rebuilding has started. 🐄 …but challenges remain: ⚠️ Drought ⚠️ High prices ⚠️ Limited capital Tyson reported a $149M beef loss last week. Live Cattle futures just posted a downside key reversal 📉 🚜 Ethanol Production Slips 🔻 Weekly output: 1 million bpd (down 2.6% WoW) 📈 Stocks: 25.45 million barrels (still high historically) Margins are improving in the eastern Corn Belt 💵 — see full ethanol charts below! 📊 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay ahead of the grain game! 🌽📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA] US Weather 3:42 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=222s] Biofuel and Tax Bill 5:41 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=341s] Iowa Eminent Domain 8:54 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=534s] US Loses Soy Market Share 10:54 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=654s] China Soybean Import Forecast 12:13 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=733s] Inflation Update 🌽☔ Widespread Rain in the Corn Belt + Biofuels Shakeup, China Trade Jitters & Inflation Update! 📉🛢️🌍 🌧️ Weather Watch: A major rain event is unfolding across the US Corn Belt! Western ND/SD are already getting soaked, with more rain arriving in the eastern Corn Belt by Friday. The next 5-16 days could bring showers to even the driest spots! 💧🌽  🛢️ 45Z Tax Credit Overhaul: Big news from Washington! Proposed changes to the 45Z credit could boost rural jobs and spark biofuel innovation 🚜⚡—but also shake up feedstock sourcing 🌎. Chinese used cooking oil may be out, and soybean oil markets are reacting! 📈 🛣️ Iowa Battles Carbon Pipelines: The Iowa Senate passed a bill tightening rules on eminent domain for carbon pipelines 🚫🛢️. It could slow down Summit Carbon’s $8.9B project. The bill now heads to Governor Reynolds’ desk. 🖊️ 🇨🇳 Brazil Soybean Advantage Continues: Despite US-China tariff cuts, Brazil stays king 👑 in China’s soybean market thanks to no tariffs and a monster crop. US beans still face a 10% tariff, and farmers say the trade truce doesn’t fix long-term problems.  📉 China Soybean Imports Falling: China expects soybean imports to drop 2.8% next season, with domestic production climbing 🐖🌱. Reduced soymeal use in livestock feed is driving the shift. 📉 📊 Inflation Hits 4-Year Low! CPI rose just 2.3% YoY in April—the lowest since Feb 2021! 🙌 Markets rallied, and Treasury traders now expect two Fed rate cuts in 2025.  ✅ Subscribe for updates 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments 🔔 Hit the bell to stay ahead of the markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw] Corn Struggles 4:43 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw&t=283s] Soybeans Rally 6:08 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw&t=368s] Wheat Sucks 9:08 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw&t=548s] Planting Progress 11:25 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw&t=685s] Wheat Ratings 12:46 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw&t=766s] Mexican Feeder Cattle Suspension 13:54 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw&t=834s] Stock Market Rally 15:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw&t=950s] Shipments 16:59 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0gK09LwOw&t=1019s] Flash Sale 📊 USDA Report Recap + Tariff Talk + Market Reactions 🌽📈 🚨 Monday's USDA report brought friendly corn news, a soybean rally, and wheat pressure — but markets didn’t act like it. Here's what happened: 🌽 Corn Check-In USDA cut ending stocks for the current year thanks to higher exports ✅ New crop balance sheet came in tighter than expected 📉 But corn still traded lower this morning 🤷 🫘 Soybean Surge July ‘25 beans jumped nearly 20¢ 🚀 Support from US-China tariff reduction & tighter supply estimates 📉 Ending stocks now the 2nd lowest since ‘12/’13 🔥 🌾 Wheat Woes Chicago wheat hit a new contract low ❌ USDA boosted both US & global ending stocks 📈 Rain across the Plains = improving crop conditions 🌧️ 🌱 Planting Progress Corn: 62% planted nationally 🌽 Beans: 48% planted 🫘 Several states moving fast, others still behind ⏱️ 🪲 Feeder Cattle Suspension USDA halts Mexican feeder cattle imports due to New World screwworm 🚫🐛 Cattle futures 🚀 on the news Mexico calls move “unfair” 🇲🇽 📉 Export Update Corn exports dipped but still solid 📦 Soybean and wheat shipments mixed 📬 USDA also announced a flash soybean sale to Mexico 🇲🇽 💼 Market Rally! S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all jumped 📈 US-China slash tariffs for 90 days 🛃 Traders now see fewer Fed rate cuts this year 💰 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to subscribe for more ag market updates! 📲 #USDA [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/usda] #Corn [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/corn] #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #Wheat [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/wheat] #Tariffs [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/tariffs] #GrainMarkets [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/grainmarkets] #FarmNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/farmnews] #Cattle [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/cattle] #AgTrade [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agtrade] #MarketUpdate [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/marketupdate] #CropProgress [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/cropprogress] #Commodities [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/commodities] #Farming [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/farming] #AgNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agnews]