Sharp China with Bill Bishop

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with July’s Politburo Meeting, including a date for the Fourth Plenum, more condemnations of “disorderly competition,” and signals that party leadership remains confident despite the tumultuous year. From there: The U.S.-China meetings in Stockholm, the latest moves from Trump to moderate on chips and possibly Taiwan, and debating a spate of reports suggesting that Trump is working toward a deal and a meeting with Xi and adopting a softer approach to China. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- July Politburo meeting; 4th Plenum set for October; US-China; AI safety — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/july-politburo-meeting-4th-plenum] No drama in Stockholm; Rare Earths and Trump's China shift; Beijing floods; Ok to say overcapacity, New Shaolin Temple Abbot — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/no-drama-in-stockholm-rare-earths] China Politburo Holds off on Further Stimulus — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-politburo-holds-off-on-further-stimulus] China struggles to break its addiction to manufacturing — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/f7979a8f-874a-4b47-8304-d93d30171980] Trump softens stance on China amid trade talks and summit push — Washington Post [https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/29/china-trade-ai-taiwan-trump/] Trump Is Shifting to Dealmaking Mode on China — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-china-trade-dealmaking] Donald Trump freezes export controls to secure trade deal with China — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/a13ba438-3b43-46dd-b332-4b81b3644da0] Donald Trump blocks Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te from New York stopover — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/21575bec-5cdd-47ee-9db2-3031c4ea7ca7] US cancelled military talks with Taiwan — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/baf4a261-1fce-4c38-b05f-ccd01d3be750] EU, US to form metals alliance to counterbalance Chinese overcapacity — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-us-form-metals-alliance-counterbalance-chinese-overcapacity-2025-07-28/] Is This the Start of a U.S.-China Friendship? — Foreign Policy [https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/29/us-china-trade-war-talks-trump-xi-summit-partnership-cooperation/] Post by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs — X: @MFA_China [https://x.com/MFA_China/status/1907585840752013507]

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with comments from Xi Jinping and renewed emphasis on building more rational marketplaces across key sectors in tech and beyond. Topics include: The implication that not every province has to participate in new growth areas, cadres parsing conflicting guidance from Beijing, and efforts to stimulate a healthy investment ecosystem for startups as U.S. venture investment recedes. From there: Thoughts on two high-profile exit-bans on American citizens traveling in China, why the two cases are different, more chatter that the Trump administration is softening on China, counterpoints to that argument, and a bit more news on "The Big Tariff," Yang Hansen. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- PLA to try again to eliminate "toxic influences"; Tibet dam project; Involution; Trump’s softening approach to China; More Americans exit banned — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/pla-to-try-again-to-eliminate-toxic] PLA Daily on political cadres; EU-China summit expectations; US-China talks next week; Lab-grown diamonds — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/pla-daily-on-political-cadres-eu] Life Atop China’s Car Market Starting to Look Shaky for BYD — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-21/life-atop-china-s-car-market-is-starting-to-look-shaky-for-byd?embedded-checkout=true&sref=5KSwFgaY] Cover Story: A New Gold Rush Begins in China’s Hard Tech Sector — Caixin [https://www.caixinglobal.com/2025-07-21/cover-story-a-new-gold-rush-begins-in-chinas-hard-tech-sector-102343179.html] China VC Funds Tap Global Investors for $2 Billion in Comeback — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/china-vc-funds-tap-global-investors-for-2-billion-in-comeback?sref=5KSwFgaY] U.S.-Based Wells Fargo Banker Blocked From Leaving China — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/world/china/wells-fargo-banker-china-89824413?mod=hp_lead_pos11] U.S. citizen who works for Commerce Dept. ensnared in Chinese exit ban — Washington Post [https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/20/china-exit-ban-commerce-department-trump-xi/] Chinese Officers Questioned U.S. Government Employee About His Army Service — New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/21/us/politics/china-exit-ban-us-government-employee.html] China says Wells Fargo banker under exit ban is involved in criminal case — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-says-wells-fargo-banker-under-exit-ban-is-involved-criminal-case-2025-07-21/] Post by Desmond Shum — X: @DesmondShum [https://x.com/DesmondShum/status/1946153896898138322] As Trump Courts a More Assertive Beijing, China Hawks Are Losing Out — New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/20/us/politics/trump-china-technology.html] Navigating the President’s Policy Whiplash on China — Wall Street Journal [https://wsjchina.cmail20.com/t/d-e-suhslt-drjjjyiym-r/] No joke: Chinese rookie Yang Hansen is the NBA’s biggest summer star — Washington Post [https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/07/20/yang-hansen-trail-blazers-nba/]

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reports that Nvidia will soon be allowed to again sell its H20 chips in China. Topics include: A win-win deal for Nvidia and the PRC, whether this is the beginning of more rollbacks of existing chip controls as the PRC exerts leverage with rare earth export controls, and Jensen Huang emerging as a bridge between US and PRC leaders. From there: Reports that Trump may be softening his approach to US-China issues, Xi Jinping's busy schedule of public appearances, and checking in on the real estate sector as stimulus hopes are deferred in the wake of this week's readout from the Central Urban Work Conference. At the end: A question on BRICS and the SCO, signs to look for if there is a leadership change in Beijing, and notes from Las Vegas after Yang Hansen becomes one of the biggest stories of NBA Summer League. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- Busy Xi; Central Urban Work Conference; H20 export controls gone in win-win for Nvidia and China — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/busy-xi-central-urban-work-conference] Price controls coming for EVs?; Nvidia CEO in Beijing; Trump to delay US-China tariff deadline? — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/price-controls-coming-for-evs-nvidia] Nvidia Can Sell AI Chip to China Again After CEO Meets Trump — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-wins-ok-to-resume-sales-of-ai-chip-to-china-after-ceo-meets-trump-68f55d71] NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Promotes AI in Washington, DC and China — Nvidia [https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-ceo-promotes-ai-in-dc-and-china/] Jensen Huang woos Beijing as Nvidia finds a way back into China — CNBC [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/as-nvidia-gets-a-lifeline-in-china-jensen-huang-goes-on-the-charm-offensive-in-beijing.html] Cognition Buys Windsurf, Nvidia Can Sell to China, Grok 4 and Kimi — Stratechery [https://stratechery.com/2025/cognition-buys-windsurf-nvidia-can-sell-to-china-grok-4-and-kimi/] Trump Softens Tone on China to Secure Xi Summit and a Trade Deal — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/trump-softens-tone-on-china-to-secure-xi-summit-and-a-trade-deal?srnd=homepage-asia&sref=5KSwFgaY] Nvidia’s Huang Says China’s Military Unlikely to Use US AI Chips — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-13/nvidia-s-huang-says-china-s-military-unlikely-to-use-us-ai-chips] Xi Touts ‘New Model’ of Property Development in Rare Meeting — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/xi-urges-new-model-for-china-urban-development-in-rare-meeting?srnd=homepage-asia&sref=5KSwFgaY] All about the RMB with Robin Brooks — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/all-about-the-rmb-with-robin-brooks] Trail Blazers’ Yang Hansen shines bright in Summer League win over Pelicans — The Oregonian [https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2025/07/trail-blazers-yang-hansen-shines-bright-in-summer-league-win-over-pelicans.html] Blazers rookie Yang Hansen describes draft night experience and career goals — ESPN [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkawW0APOdg]

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a look at tensions between the PRC and the EU ahead of the EU-China summit later this month. Topics include: Reports concerning Wang Yi's comments to EU counterparts conveying Beijing's perspective on the Ukraine war, the PRC Foreign Ministry implores the EU to "rebalance its mindset" rather than rebalancing trade, and the rare earths leverage that looms as Europe mulls its next moves. From there: Stepped up party efforts to combat overcapacity and "disorderly competition," the decades-long challenge of stimulating consumption, and extended thoughts on the spate of rumors surrounding Xi's grip on power and what can and can't be gleaned from observed behavior the past few months. At the end: A bit of TikTok news, and a welcome to the NBA for Yang Hansen. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- More on June Politburo meeting; Stabilizing employment; Trump's threat to bomb Beijing; EU's mindset needs "rebalancing"; TikTok — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/more-on-june-politburo-meeting-stabilizing] Xi's Shanxi tour; VDL's tough on China speech; Rare earths; Kindergarten mass lead poisoning; "London Framework" — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/xis-shanxi-tour-vdls-tough-on-china] Exclusive | China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine: sources — SCMP [https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say] China Rebukes EU Chief After Demand for Greater Trade Access — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-09/china-rebukes-eu-chief-after-demand-for-greater-trade-access] France Urges Tariff Barriers to Stop China From Killing Industry — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-05/france-urges-tariff-barriers-to-stop-china-from-killing-industry] Germany summons China’s ambassador after a plane is lasered over Red Sea — AP [https://apnews.com/article/germany-china-red-sea-laser-c0f7e743dd1446b262b3afbcefd7966d] China’s top leadership takes aim at ‘disorderly low-price competition’ — SCMP [https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3316616/chinas-top-leadership-takes-aim-disorderly-low-price-competition] Calls grow for China's household sector to be bigger economic driver — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/calls-grow-chinas-household-sector-be-bigger-economic-driver-2025-07-07/] Deeply Understand and Comprehensively Rectify "Involutionary" Competition — Qiushi [https://vivid-green-408.notion.site/Deeply-Understand-and-Comprehensively-Rectify-Involutionary-Competition-22384ece41d780eba37fd487df2ad84d] China’s producer prices fall 3.6% in June, biggest drop in nearly two years as deflation deepens — CNBC [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/china-producer-prices-fall-june-biggest-drop-nearly-two-years-deepening-price-war-cpi-ppi-nbs.html] Is Chinese President Xi Jinping on his way out? — NY Post [https://nypost.com/2025/06/28/opinion/is-chinese-pres-xi-jinping-on-his-way-out/] ‘Containing Xi’, or refining party rule? — Observing China [https://www.observingchina.org.uk/p/containing-xi-or-refining-party-rule] Is Xi's Grip Holding? — China Media Project [https://chinamediaproject.org/2025/06/26/is-xis-grip-holding/] Exclusive: TikTok prepares US app with its own algorithm and user data — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/tiktok-prepares-us-app-with-its-own-algorithm-user-data-2025-07-09/] NBA Draft surprise: China center Yang Hansen picked at No. 16, dealt to Blazers — The Athletic [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6452189/2025/06/25/nba-draft-surprise-blazers-grizzlies-yang-hansen/]

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with PRC perspectives on the past two weeks of attacks on Iran. Topics include: Dispelling notions that U.S. involvement was welcomed by the PRC, why regional stability in the Middle East is stressed in every PRC statement, and how Iran and other PRC partners may view China's inaction over the last few weeks. From there: President William Lai delivers the first of ten speeches on national unity in Taiwan, the PRC offers a blistering response, and it may be time to brace for a rocky summer. At the end: The London agreement between the U.S. and China is under duress, EU leaders sound increasingly hawkish as the EU-China summit looms, Trump gives TikTok its third extension, and Congressional testimony brings the PRC swimming scandal back to the spotlight. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- China and the Iran-Israel conflict; Lai: "Taiwan is of course a country"; Rickety "London Framework"; Curbing “involution-style” competition — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/china-and-the-iran-israel-conflict] Xi-Putin call; Rare earths and the EU; Opening exit paths for tech firms; TikTaco — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/xi-putin-call-rare-earths-and-the] China’s influence tested by US air strikes on Iran but direct role unlikely: analysts — SCMP [https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3315532/chinas-influence-tested-us-air-strikes-iran-direct-role-unlikely-analysts?module=top_story&pgtype=section] Lai begins 10-stop tour with speech on ‘nation’ — Taipei Times [https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2025/06/23/2003839082] No Chinese diplomats remain in Lithuania — LRT [https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2591238/no-chinese-diplomats-remain-in-lithuania?srsltid=AfmBOoq5uTpFszew0HlF_8a19-pLkj0IFvYLNzdasxLG1f-e8zNSIlhy] How Sarunas Marciulionis Opened Pandora's Box — Sports Illustrated (2018) [https://www.si.com/nba/2018/01/17/nba-international-sarunas-marciulionis-soviet-union-vlade-divac-don-nelson] Chinese ambassador sparks European outrage over suggestion former Soviet states don’t exist — CNN (2023) [https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/china/china-ambassador-lu-shaye-baltic-soviet-states-europe-intl-hnk] Trump Pledge of Quick China Magnet Flows Has Yet to Materialize — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/trump-pledge-of-quick-china-magnet-flows-has-yet-to-materialize?sref=5KSwFgaY] US may target Samsung, Hynix, TSMC operations in China, sources say — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-prepares-action-targeting-allies-chip-plants-china-wsj-reports-2025-06-20/] EU foreign policy chief calls for ‘dose of realism’ in China relations — SCMP [https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3315553/eu-foreign-policy-chief-calls-dose-realism-china-relations?] Statement by President von der Leyen at Session II - working lunch of the G7, 'Economic growth, security and resilience' — EU Commission [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_25_1522] Trump to extend TikTok sale deadline for third time, White House says — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-he-will-probably-extend-tiktok-deadline-again-2025-06-17/] Trump’s Continuing Illegal Refusal to Enforce the TikTok Ban — Executive Function [https://executivefunctions.substack.com/p/trumps-continuing-illegal-refusal?r=4xo6yq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true] Had a belly full. Could Chinese swimmers have eaten 5 kilos of food en route to failed doping test? — AP [https://apnews.com/article/doping-china-wada-senate-33e3440753c89664ac2af0e0d63ff5dd]