Sharp China with Bill Bishop

(Preview) Trump’s Plan to Sell Advanced Chips to China; U.S. Concessions Piling Up Amid a Push for ‘Stability’; Macron and the EU Conundrum

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the US is greenlighting the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to the PRC market. Topics include: Dubious claims in Trump’s Truth Social post announcing the news, searching for arguments in support of this policy change, the 25% of China revenue Nvidia will pay to the U.S. government, and waiting for Beijing’s response, including how many U.S. chips Chinese companies will be allowed to buy. From there: The U.S. halts plans to sanction the MSS and its contractors, Japan seeks more support from the U.S., and the dynamics of “stability” come into focus. At the end: The December Politburo meeting, Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China, an email about the West’s willingness to build, and ‘Zootopia 2’ becomes a sensation in China. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- Central Economic Work Conference; Nvidia’s H200 chips for China; PRC-Japan fighter radar locks; Chen Yixin — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/central-economic-work-conference-757] Trump Says U.S. Will Allow Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China, Get 25% Cut — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-china-exports-h2000-chips-5943aa48] Nvidia AI Chips to Undergo Unusual U.S. Security Review Before Export to China — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-ai-chips-to-undergo-unusual-u-s-security-review-before-export-to-china-5e73cd55] US halts plans to sanction Chinese spy agency — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/61016803-baf5-4be5-8350-e0cc5ca4ab26] Japan frustrated at Trump administration’s silence over row with China — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3189] U.S. Authorities Shut Down Major China-Linked AI Tech Smuggling Network — Department of Justice [https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-authorities-shut-down-major-china-linked-ai-tech-smuggling-network] December Politburo meeting and the imminent Central Economic Work Conference — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/december-politburo-meeting-and-the] Wang Yi Holds Talks with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul — MoFA [https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbzhd/202512/t20251209_11769683.html] France’s Macron threatens China with tariffs over trade surplus — Les Echos [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/frances-macron-threatens-china-with-tariffs-over-trade-surplus-les-echos-2025-12-07/] Zootopia 2 bucks trend for Hollywood releases in China as it breaks records for foreign animation — The Guardian [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/06/zootopia-2-china-highest-grossing-foreign-animation-zootropolis]

Trump, Takaichi and a Game of Telephone; Japan Jawboning Continues; An Internet Governance Study Session; China Making Trade ‘Impossible’

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the call between Trump and Xi last week, a subsequent call between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and the PRC’s ongoing tensions with Japan. Topics include: Conflicting reports surrounding both calls last week, PRC rhetoric that continues to escalate, contested history surrounding Okinawa, and PRC behavior that may be clarifying for the rest of the world. From there: Various points of emphasis at the Politburo study session on strengthening internet governance, DeepSeek’s new AI model, and a recent Crowdstrike investigation that appears to highlight the risks of building on Chinese models. At the end: More bad news in the real estate sector as Vanke struggles make international news, waiting for the Central Economic Work Conference later this month, an FT op-ed makes Europe’s trade problems clear while solutions remain elusive, and a note from a NASA employee adds context to a previous discussion on space rescues. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- Hong Kong fire; Politburo study session on strengthening Internet governance; Japan-China; Cloud loophole for advanced AI chips; Xu Qinxian — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/hong-kong-fire-politburo-study-session] Who initiated the Trump-Xi call?; PRC-Japan; Loosening loan standards; CrowdStrike questions DeepSeek coding security — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/who-initiated-the-trump-xi-call-prc] Trump, After Call With China’s Xi, Told Tokyo to Lower the Volume on Taiwan — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-after-call-with-chinas-xi-told-japan-to-lower-the-volume-on-taiwan-3af795d6?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_1] Japan Denies Report That Trump Asked PM Not to Provoke China — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-27/japan-avoids-comment-on-whether-trump-asked-not-to-provoke-china?embedded-checkout=true] China, Evoking World War II, Urges Europe to Take Its Side Against Japan — New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/world/asia/china-japan-taiwan-europe.html] The PRC’s Diplomatic Offensive Against Japan Over Taiwan — Global Taiwan [https://globaltaiwan.org/2025/12/the-prcs-diplomatic-offensive-against-japan-over-taiwan/] China’s AI is built for control — and it’s going global — Red Packet [https://redpacket.substack.com/p/chinas-ai-is-built-for-control-and] CrowdStrike Research: Security Flaws in DeepSeek-Generated Code Linked to Political Triggers — CrowdStrike [https://www.crowdstrike.com/en-us/blog/crowdstrike-researchers-identify-hidden-vulnerabilities-ai-coded-software/] China Tells Stats Providers to Halt Home Sales Data Publication — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-01/china-s-private-data-on-home-sales-vanishes-after-vanke-turmoil?srnd=homep] China Vanke Jolts Bondholders Again With Plan for One-Year Delay — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-01/china-vanke-asks-for-12-months-to-pay-bond-under-extension-plan] Beijing orders China’s banks to lend to debt-burdened state-owned entities — China Banking News [https://www.chinabankingnews.com/p/beijing-orders-chinas-banks-to-lend] China is making trade impossible — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/f294be55-98c4-48f0-abce-9041ed236a44] China’s growing trade surplus: why exports are surging as imports stall — European Central Bank [https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2025/html/ecb.ebbox202507_01~83b0e7edd4.en.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email] Three Futures — Watching China in Europe [https://www.gmfus.org/news/watching-china-europe-december-2025] Weeks from homecoming, Boeing Starliner astronauts want to set the record straight — CNN [https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/13/science/boeing-starliner-astronauts-stuck-space]

(Preview) A Maximalist Response to Japan's PM; More Bad Real Estate News; Leaked Warnings on Alibaba; Hasan Piker Touring China

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a week of escalating rhetoric in response to Japanese Prime Minister Sane Takaichi’s comments about a Taiwan contingency. Topics include: Memories of Senkakku Islands tensions in 2012, why protests in the streets are unlikely this time, possibilities to escalate and de-escalate from here, and possible PRC motivations for reacting so forcefully. From there: A new round of disappointing real estate data while Lou Jiwei predicts prolonged contraction, “phantom loans” at banks, and a rescue mission for the Shenzhou 21 crew at Tiangong space station. At the end: A leaked White House memo alleges Alibaba is cooperating with the PLA, Hasan Piker’s viral travels spawn thoughts on Western influencers touring China, and a BBC journalist is reportedly under investigation for espionage in Brussels. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- PRC-Japan crisis; October government spending drops; Real estate prices continue to decline; Shenzhou 20 crew returns — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/prc-japan-crisis-october-government] Weak October credit data; CSRC head to resign?; No letup in PRC attacks over Japanese PM’s Taiwan comments; New Model of Global Leadership; Nexperia — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/weak-october-credit-data-csrc-head] Saber-rattling about militarily intervening in the Taiwan Strait situation will only lead Japan down a road of no return — PLA Daily [https://sinocism.notion.site/PLA-Daily-Saber-rattling-about-militarily-intervening-in-the-Taiwan-Strait-situation-will-only-lea-2ad84ece41d780d2bbd8c6d30138279f] How Japan’s new prime minister has brought China’s ‘wolf warriors’ back out — CNN [https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/12/asia/japan-takaichi-china-taiwan-analysis-intl-hnk] Japan senior diplomat visits Beijing to ease spat over Taiwan — Nikkei Asia [https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/japan-senior-diplomat-visits-beijing-to-ease-spat-over-taiwan] China Secondhand Home Prices Fall in All Major Cities for Second Month — Caixin [https://www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-15/china-secondhand-home-prices-fall-in-all-major-cities-for-second-month-102383245.html] China Sees Worst Credit Growth in a Year as Demand Dries Up — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/china-s-credit-growth-disappoints-with-dip-in-public-bond-sales] China Banks Issue Phantom Loans to Hit Targets in Slow Economy — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/china-banks-issue-phantom-loans-to-hit-targets-in-slow-economy] Exclusive: GM wants parts makers to pull supply chains from China — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-wants-parts-makers-pull-supply-chains-china-2025-11-12/] White House memo claims Alibaba is helping Chinese military target US — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/30fb83a0-8cb9-4805-b5d2-19b5ef510043] Tesla Wants Its American Cars to Be Built Without Any Chinese Parts — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-china-parts-supply-chain-639efc84] US influencer Hasan Piker’s China tour draws fire after viral Tiananmen police encounter — SCMP [https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3333173/hasan-pikers-china-tour-draws-fire-after-viral-tiananmen-police-encounter] america against china against america — Jasmine Sun [https://jasmi.news/p/china-2025] Sinocism Live: Dispatches from China with Afra Wang and Jasmine Sun — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/sinocism-live-dispatches-from-china] BBC journalist probed by secret services over China spying allegations — Daily Mail [https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15294469/amp/BBC-journalist-secret-services-China-spying-allegations.html]

(Preview) US-China Follow-Through; New Xi Textbooks and a New Aircraft Carrier; A Wolf Warrior Greets Japan’s PM; More Setbacks for Nvidia

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the implementation of this month's deal between the US and China, including a variety of early indications that both sides intend to follow through with commitments made in South Korea, the PRC's clarification on its December 2024 export controls, and a report on the PRC implementing VEU system for rare earth exports to the US. From there: A variety of news and notes including a new textbook on Xi Jinping Economic Thought, Xi's visit to the Fujian aircraft carrier, a crackdown on improper asset seizures, and a flare-up with Japan's new PM after her comments on Taiwan contingencies inspire caustic language from a PRC diplomat. At the end: A pair of reports highlight questions about the AI future in China and elsewhere, while the New York Times reports on transnational censorship of a film festival in New York City. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- He Lifeng on New Quality Productive Forces; Measures to Promote Private Investment; PLA Air Force Turns 76; US-China Deal — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/he-lifeng-on-new-quality-productive] Xi in Guangdong; Fujian Carrier; "An Introduction to Xi Jinping Economic Thought"; No PRC Honeymoon with New Japanese PM — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/xi-in-guangdong-fujian-carrier-an] China Suspends Export Controls on More Critical Minerals — New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/09/business/china-suspends-export-controls.html] China Hatches Plan to Keep U.S. Military From Getting Its Rare-Earth Magnets — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-hatches-plan-to-keep-u-s-military-from-getting-its-rare-earth-magnets-f349ee65] Exclusive: FBI Chief Visited China to Talk Fentanyl, Law Enforcement, Sources Say — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/fbi-chief-visited-china-talk-fentanyl-law-enforcement-sources-say-2025-11-10] Analysis: Beijing’s Push for Judicial Checks on Asset Seizures Signals Bid to Reassure Private Sector — Caixin [https://www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-05/analysis-beijings-push-for-judicial-checks-on-asset-seizures-signals-bid-to-reassure-private-sector-102379557.html] Takaichi Defends Taiwan Views After China Envoy’s Violent Threat — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/japan-s-takaichi-defends-taiwan-remarks-after-chinese-criticism] Exclusive: China Bans Foreign AI Chips from State-Funded Data Centres, Sources Say — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-bans-foreign-ai-chips-state-funded-data-centres-sources-say-2025-11-05] U.S. to Block Nvidia’s Sale of Scaled-Back AI Chips to China — The Information [https://www.theinformation.com/articles/u-s-block-nvidias-sale-scaled-back-ai-chips-china] How China Reached Into New York to Stop a Tiny Film Festival — New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/world/asia/china-film-festival-new-york.html]

The US-China Deal One Week Later: Why Short-Term Stability Is Likely, Costs and Benefits of Escalation, and More Adventures with Nvidia

On today's show Andrew and Bill break down the latest deal between the US and China, beginning with details from the White House over the weekend, why the PRC is likely happy with a tactical retreat and the new status quo, and why stability is likely at least through April. From there: Why the PRC was motivated to deal despite its goals of eliminating tariffs and export controls, clarity about American pain points, questions about Congress and what comes next, and the costs of China's strategy for the past month. At the end: Reporting on a doomed push from Nvidia to sell Blackwell chips to China, new subsidies for China's AI leaders, a potential Nexperia resolution, and questions the forthcoming fentanyl cooperation between the US and China. ---------------------------------------- Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- Outcomes of Trump-Xi meeting; No deal yet for Nvidia chips; Gaokao — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/outcomes-of-trump-xi-meeting-no-deal] Xi at APEC; US-China deal; Rare earths; Nvidia thwarted by Trump officials; UK university censors over Xinjiang — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/xi-at-apec-us-china-deal-rare-earths] Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China — The White House [https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china] Rare-Earth Magnet Startups Seal $1.4 Billion Deal With Trump Administration — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/business/rare-earth-magnet-startups-seal-1-4-billion-deal-with-trump-administration-8184b9ae] Bringing Rare Earths Back — Commonplace [https://www.commonplace.org/p/sen-jim-banks-bringing-rare-earths] Trump Says China Knows ‘Consequences’ of an Attack on Taiwan — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/trump-says-china-knows-consequences-of-any-attack-on-taiwan] President Donald Trump participates in a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping — The White House [https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-participates-in-a-bilateral-meeting-with-chinese-president-xi-jinping] Sinocism Live: Rush Doshi on the Trump-Xi meeting and US-China Relations — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/sinocism-live-rush-doshi-on-the-trump] Trump Officials Torpedoed Nvidia’s Push to Export AI Chips to China — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-nvidia-china-chip-exports-51e00415] Watch CNBC's full interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — CNBC [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8l7OnQKvbM8] China offers tech giants cheap power to boost domestic AI chips — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/cad2cdd6-7cce-4de3-8710-977de667378c] Auto giants rally as China says it will consider exemptions for Nexperia chip exports — CNBC [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/03/auto-giants-rally-as-china-considers-nexperia-chip-export-exemptions.html] Trump Says Xi Will Help Fight Fentanyl. Will China Follow Through? — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-says-xi-will-help-fight-fentanyl-will-china-follow-through-2462622a]