Forecasting Chaos

When Rules Stop Working

When someone refuses to play by the rules, should you keep following them—or fight fire with fire?   Constitutional societies depend on more than written laws. They depend on reciprocity, restraint, and a shared expectation that today's winner won't permanently rewrite the rules in their own favor.   In this episode, Lee Ellis examines why constitutional systems work, what happens when that reciprocity begins to break down, and why responding to bad-faith tactics by abandoning constitutional principles can ultimately destroy the very institutions we're trying to preserve.

Nobody Tries to Join a Cult

Why do ordinary people become devoted members of increasingly extreme organizations? This episode explores the psychology of gradual commitment—from harmless slogans and small acts of participation to identity, groupthink, and institutional influence. Using a fictional anti-bullying movement as a case study, we examine how individuals and organizations become radicalized, why these processes often emerge without a central conspiracy, and how understanding them can help us recognize similar patterns in the real world.

The Biggest Asshole Always Wins

Most people assume the majority gets its way. This episode explores why group decisions are often determined less by numbers than by the willingness of competing factions to apply pressure, and what that means for politics, corporations, and modern institutions.

Do We Follow The Evidence, Or Lead It?

Most people believe they follow the evidence wherever it leads. In reality, we often do the opposite. When confronted with information that challenges our existing beliefs, we rarely evaluate it objectively. Instead, we rationalize it, reinterpret it, or dismiss it altogether in order to preserve our preferred theories, narratives, and worldviews. In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines why people cling to beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence, the incentives that encourage theory defense, and how public commitment, social pressure, and personal attachment can distort our judgment.

The Windmills We Create

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines how individuals and societies create "windmills" to fight. Drawing on the story of Don Quixote, he explores the psychological and social forces that cause threats to be exaggerated, narratives to spiral, and well-intentioned responses to become overreactions. From evolutionary instincts and strategic calculations to ego needs and institutional incentives, this episode looks at why the dangers we perceive often grow larger than the realities that inspired them.