Top Traders Unplugged

SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter [https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski]. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series 00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance 02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut 03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals 06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty 08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models 11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals 13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets 16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility 19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation 22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets 28:07 - Bubble dynamics, leverage and wealth effects 36:51 - Credit markets, AI investment and systemic risk 41:07 - Momentum, trend following and persistent market behavior 54:36 - Total portfolio approach and adaptive asset allocation Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter [https://twitter.com/alanjdunne]. Follow Jeff on LinkedIn. [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-rosenberg-cfa-103b64168/] Find out more about DUNN Capital [https://dunncapital.com/] Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda 04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence 09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation 14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification 19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression 25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha 30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why BlackRock entered the ETF trend space 35:58 - Breadth, capacity and why market selection matters more than cocoa 41:12 - Defensive alpha explained using a credit lens on equities and crisis behaviour 46:27 - Execution, implementation alpha and using BlackRock’s liquidity river 51:39 - Constraints of wrappers, leverage limits and designing strategies for ETFs 56:54 - Growth of liquid alternatives, 50 30 20 and replacing the old 60 40 mindset 01:02:10 - Equity concentration, big tech, AI and the need for uncorrelated return streams 01:07:32 - Whole portfolio thinking, total portfolio approach and final takeaways Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter [https://twitter.com/alanjdunne]. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week 01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets 03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure 05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend? 06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to 08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap 11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances 12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain 13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and Trend index line-ups and cutoffs 21:02 - Tariffs, AI capex, rising long rates and the changing bond landscape 29:28 - Is this really a 1990s-style productivity boom or something riskier? 33:52 - Why traditional versus alternative is the wrong lens for portfolios 38:30 - Inside Alan’s Adaptive Portfolio and the 40/40/20 risk framework 47:48 - Behavioural traps and the chronic under-allocation to true diversifiers 53:34 - Tail risks, fiscal dominance and what most portfolios are missing 56:59 - Adaptive versus 60/40: drawdowns, compounding and implications for retirees 01:01:42 - Implementation, return stacking and Morningstar’s leverage label problem 01:05:54 - Closing reflections, next week’s episode and final risk reminders Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter [https://twitter.com/alanjdunne]. Follow Joe on LinkedIn. [https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephelittle/?originalSubdomain=uk] Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum” 00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners 01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author 05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime 10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects 13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance 16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge 20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from deflation 24:54 - Role reversal in 2025 and why future Asian performance must be earnings led 27:22 - Debt, deficits and fiscal dominance, from UK gilts to French OATs and US Treasuries 31:34 - Steeper curves and rising term premia, how the bond market can “murder” the cycle 32:26 - Rethinking 60/40, weaker bond diversification and the case for “diversifying diversifiers” 35:32 - Hedge funds, macro and why emerging markets may now be structurally less fragile 37:13 - Can EM really decouple, and what India versus China tells us about country effects 41:59 - Dollar overvaluation, policy preference for weakness and the fading of the dollar smile 47:27 - Fed succession, populism, and why 2 percent inflation will not feel like a ceiling 51:23 - Gold’s rise, stock bond correlation and the search for genuine risk mitigators 53:53 - Investor sentiment, nervous equilibrium and how institutions are repositioning risk 58:00 - Ten year return assumptions and constructing multipolar, all weather portfolios 01:02:04 - Book recommendations, learning macro and closing reflections Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter [https://twitter.com/andrewdbeer1]. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday 01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40 03:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios 05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs 08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future 09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback 10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles 12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day” 16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really being delivered 18:16 - Targeting “space beta” plus cost savings: is complexity in CTAs adding or destroying value? 22:14 - Indexing the replication strategy and using swaps: Simplify’s new "low" headline fee ETF built on Andrew’s index 30:49 - The fee and cost debate: headline fees, trading costs, swaps and what investors should really ask 34:33 - Implementation costs, incentive fees and tax efficiency versus simple fee labels 45:08 - A better story for managed futures: from black box trend to “cloudy crystal ball” 51:22 - How trend taps local information: “someone knows something” and prices as detectors 58:03 - Takeaways from the Stockholm roundtable: short vs long term, exotic markets and heterogeneity 01:01:07 - Alpha-beta separation, core CTA beta vs high-conviction managers and where the space is heading 01:03:44 - Closing thoughts: civilized disagreement, common mission and why every portfolio needs this exposure Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]