ChinaTalk

Japan's New Prime Minister: What to Expect

Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan [https://observingjapan.substack.com/] substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy. Lily's in Osaka, hit her up at lily@chinatalk.media Chapters: 00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama 07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style 24:27 National Defense and International Relations 40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability 48:33 Implications of a Minority Government 01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Second Breakfast: Venezuela, Shutdowns, PE + Army, E.B. Sledge

Bryan, Eric, and Justin join the fun. 00:00 Venezuela 16:08 Shutdown Effects on Military Operations 34:45 The PE Army Takeover + Datacenters 46:32 Submarine Detection and Naval Strategy 48:44 Sledge Outtro Music: Botaste la Bola, Un Solo Pueblo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

PLA Purges and How Xi Rules with Jon Czin

Jon Czin [https://www.brookings.edu/people/jonathan-a-czin/] spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden’s National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We discuss what Xi’s fourth-term means for China’s top leadership and military, Taiwan, and the US. We cover: * How Xi’s mafioso-style “decapitation strategy” has kept the PLA in line and why he’s purged more generals than Mao. * Cognitive decline and how end-of-life thinking might be shaping Xi’s succession plans and Taiwan strategy. * Tariffs, rare earths, and China’s appetite for pain vs. America’s. * Beijing’s parochialism and its limits in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. * What intelligence work on China actually looks like and whether or not Xi’s era is duller than previous generations. Plus: who might succeed Xi, comparing the Politburo Standing Committee to a frat house, and why chips and TSMC matter much less in Xi’s Taiwan calculus than most think. Outtro Music: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Second Breakfast: Gaza, SOUTHCOM, AI Nuke Analogies Stink, Generals Using AI (with M. Horowitz and L. Kahn!)

Guests today include Michael Horowitz (Penn now, in the Biden years was DAS for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities + Director of the Emerging Capabilities Policy Office) and Lauren Kahn (worked with Michael in the DoD, now at CSET). The book that Mike recommended is free to download online! https://history.army.mil/portals/143/Images/Publications/catalog/30-4.pdf Outtro Music: The Shirelles, Soldier Boy 00:00 Gaza and the Middle East Peace Process 06:26 US-Latin American Policy and Military Engagement 10:38 AI and Nuclear Weapons: A Seductive Analogy 17:47 Nuclear Energy vs. AI: Lessons in Governance 20:02 The Future of AI in Military Operations 31:46 Transforming Military Lessons with AI 37:38 Operational Surprise and Historical Context 45:55 Social Acceptability of Military Technologies 57:59 Ethics and Accuracy in AI Warfare Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Tarun Chhabra on the Stakes of AI Competition

Tarun Chhabra [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarun_Chhabra] is Head of National Security Policy at Anthropic, and previously served as the Deputy Assistant to the President and Coordinator for Technology and National Security on Biden’s NSC. Today, our conversation covers… * Why the US needs to maintain an advantage in the race for AI development against China, * Whether the US’s AI industry is prepared for future competition from China, * The lawyers vs. engineers debate, and what the US needs to build AI supply chains, * How government and industry can work together to across the AI development process. Outro music: Stephen Wilson Jr. - Stand By Me (Live at The Print Shop) (YouTube Link [https://youtu.be/pfnH49R0wFc?si=r5pCLHUURD2pcaSQ]) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]