Palisades Gold Radio

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Michael Kao to the show. Michael Kao is Private Family Office Investor & Author and a Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities Trader. In this comprehensive discussion, Kao provides an in-depth analysis of the Trump 2.0 economic strategy, focusing on several key policy initiatives designed to reshape the United States’ economic trajectory. He describes the current approach as navigating an “asteroid field” with strategic policy levers aimed at addressing significant economic challenges, including massive deficits, global conflicts, and critical dependencies on adversarial nations. Kao highlights four primary policy initiatives: tariffs and economic statecraft, redirecting fiscal spending, managing inflation, and containing internal and external threats. A critical component of this strategy involves what he calls a “reverse Marshall Plan,” where other countries and private industries shoulder fiscal responsibilities traditionally borne by the US government. This approach could potentially redirect billions of dollars in spending through trade deals, NATO commitments, and corporate reshoring initiatives. The discussion extensively explores potential deflationary mechanisms within the policy framework, including strategic tariffs, oil price management, and potential productivity gains from AI and deregulation. Kao suggests that these policies could create a “disinflationary growth” scenario, potentially allowing the US to grow its way out of its current debt challenges. Kao remains cautiously optimistic about the United States’ economic future, emphasizing the importance of maintaining these strategic initiatives beyond the current presidential cycle. He believes the US has significant untapped potential on its balance sheet and that the current approach could create more favorable long-term economic conditions. The conversation also touches on geopolitical dynamics, including potential shifts in Middle Eastern relationships, China’s economic challenges, and the importance of creating sustainable economic conditions that don’t rely on short-term monetary manipulations. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:58 – Trump Economic Shifts 00:12:02 – Chinese Industry/Automation 00:16:47 – U.S. Debt Bubble & GDP 00:22:24 – Bessent & Treasury Yields 00:32:00 – CBO Metrics, & Cuts 00:38:30 – Stablecoins & SWIFT 00:42:10 – Middle East Risks 00:46:46 – Markets & Conflicts 00:51:10 – Trump a High-Vol Playbook 00:57:00 – Energy, Oil, & China 01:03:16 – U.S. Market Chart & Risks 01:10:15 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/@UrbanKaoboy [https://x.com/@UrbanKaoboy] Substack: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/about [https://www.urbankaoboy.com/about] Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings. Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Matthew Piepenburg to the show. Matthew Piepenburg is Partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland, and Author of ‘Gold Matters & Rigged To Fail’. In this wide-ranging discussion, Piepenburg explores several critical economic topics, including potential gold revaluation, stablecoins, and the current state of the global financial system. He argues that the United States is facing unprecedented economic challenges, characterized by massive debt levels, currency debasement, and growing global economic tensions. Regarding gold revaluation, Piepenburg suggests that while some propose dramatic scenarios like gold reaching $24,000 per ounce, the reality is more nuanced. He emphasizes that such a revaluation would be a desperate measure to address mounting debt, potentially destabilizing global currencies. The discussion highlights the complexity of such a strategy, noting that it might provide temporary relief but would not solve underlying structural economic problems. Piepenburg is particularly critical of current economic indicators, pointing out the widening wealth inequality, the struggling middle class, and the market’s disconnection from economic fundamentals. He views the current stock market as a bubble sustained by liquidity and debt, warning of potential significant mean reversion. The conversation also explores alternative assets like silver and platinum, with Piepenburg viewing them as potential stores of value and speculative opportunities. He argues that gold’s rising price is not a bull market, but rather a signpost of a broader currency and debt crisis. Ultimately, Piepenburg’s message is one of cautious preparation rather than panic. He encourages listeners to be informed, challenge assumptions, and understand that while the current economic system faces significant challenges, it is not necessarily heading for immediate collapse. The key is to remain objective, understand the underlying trends, and make informed decisions about wealth preservation. The discussion concludes with a call for critical thinking and avoiding emotional or sensationalist approaches to understanding complex economic dynamics. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:66 – Gold Revaluation Coming? 00:14:47 – U.S. Debt & Stablecoins 00:21:21 – Stablecoins & SWIFT 00:23:56 – Trump’s Tariff Approach 00:35:47 – Can The System Be Saved? 00:47:12 – Debt Symptoms & Outcomes 00:55:27 – Silvers Role & Importance 01:01:43 – How High Could Gold Go? 01:09:26 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland [https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland] Website: https://goldswitzerland.com/ [https://goldswitzerland.com/] Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/ [https://signalsmatter.com/] Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c [https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c] Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, “Rigged to Fail”. Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Florian Grummes to the show. Florian Grummes is Financial Analyst, Advisor, and Founder & Managing Director of Midas Touch Consulting. The discussion centers on the current state of gold and silver markets, highlighting a period of consolidation following a strong rally. Grummes explains that gold has been trading in a range between $3,200 and $3,400, which he considers a healthy and bullish consolidation after a significant price increase from $2,000 to $3,500 over the past 14 months. He anticipates more market movement in September and October as traders return from summer holidays. Central bank buying remains a crucial driver for gold prices, with emerging markets like China and India continuing to diversify away from the US dollar. Grummes believes this trend could continue for five to ten years, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a strategic shift in global financial dynamics. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has become increasingly prominent, potentially challenging Western pricing mechanisms for precious metals. Regarding silver, Grummes notes a more measured approach to price movement, which he views positively. He suggests the market is building momentum more sustainably, increasing the likelihood of breaking through the $50 resistance level and potentially continuing higher to $55-$75. The discussion also touches on mining stocks, which Grummes sees as undervalued and potentially poised for significant growth. He references the Dow-to-Gold ratio as an important long-term indicator, suggesting that precious metals are likely to outperform traditional stocks in the coming years. Looking ahead, Grummes provides price targets for the end of 2024: approximately $4,000 for gold, $50 for silver, and potentially $150,000 for Bitcoin. He expects a strong final quarter across markets, with potential rate cuts and continued liquidity in the financial system. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:40 – Gold & Seasonality 00:03:00 – Volatility this Fall? 00:06:28 – Eastern Buying Season? 00:09:40 – Central Bank Buying 00:13:24 – Western Pricing Power 00:16:32 – Silver and Stable Pricing 00:20:23 – Gold Support & Resistance 00:24:14 – Silver Previous ATHs 00:27:28 – Topping Technical Signals 00:31:23 – Website T.A. Buy Gauge 00:32:53 – Miners & Maturing Markets 00:35:30 – ReMonetizing Gold & Fed 00:40:58 – Dow To Gold Ratio 00:46:30 – Bitcoin & Stablecoins 00:49:20 – Price Targets End 2025 00:50:55 – Fall Rate Cuts or Q.E. 00:52:12 – Wrap Up Guest Links: Website: https://www.midastouch-consulting.com [https://www.midastouch-consulting.com] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/floriangrummes/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/floriangrummes/] X: https://twitter.com/FlorianGrummes [https://twitter.com/FlorianGrummes] Substack: https://substack.com/@midastouchconsulting [https://substack.com/@midastouchconsulting] Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/florian-grummes [https://seekingalpha.com/author/florian-grummes] Telegram: https://t.me/MidasTouchConsulting [https://t.me/MidasTouchConsulting] Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Midastouchconsulting [https://www.facebook.com/Midastouchconsulting] Free Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/d5Euf [http://eepurl.com/d5Euf] Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, mentor, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 30 years of experience in financial markets.    Florian is the founder and managing director of his company Midas Touch Consulting, which is specialized in trading & investments as well as consulting, analysis & research with a focus on precious metals, commodities and digital assets. Via Midas Touch Consulting he is publishing daily and weekly gold, silver, bitcoin & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental/macro and sentiment analysis into one often accurate conclusion about the markets.

Tom welcomes back investment manager Lawrence Lepard for a discussion on the current economic landscape, focusing on potential signs of a “crack-up boom” and the challenges facing the US monetary system. Lepard suggests we may be entering a period of significant economic transformation, characterized by record highs in stock markets, gold, and Bitcoin, while expressing skepticism about the stability of current financial structures. The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve’s potential monetary policy shifts, with Lepard believing that a new dovish Fed chairman could lead to increased money printing and inflationary pressures. He anticipates a decade of high inflation and potentially significant economic restructuring. Larry is particularly bullish on gold, silver, and Bitcoin as hedge assets, predicting gold could reach $5,000 and Bitcoin could hit hundreds of thousands of dollars. He draws parallels between the current AI investment landscape and the dot-com bubble, warning that overinvestment in AI could potentially trigger a significant economic downturn. He also discusses the possibility of a gold revaluation, suggesting that the government might eventually reset gold’s value as a way to address mounting national debt. Regarding gold and silver mining stocks, Larry sees tremendous potential for growth. He highlights that these stocks have significantly underperformed the metal prices and believes they could potentially double in the next 12-18 months as investors recognize the long-term upward trajectory of precious metals. This interview concludes with Lepard promoting his book, “The Big Print,” which explores the current monetary system’s challenges and offers strategies for protecting wealth during potential economic instability. His core message emphasizes the need to return to a sound money standard and prepare for potential inflationary pressures. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:50 – Crack Up Doom Phase 00:02:56 – Trump Rates & Powell 00:10:20 – Mortgages & Housing 00:11:59 – Gold, Bitcoin, & Bonds 00:16:58 – U.S. Economic Dominance? 00:21:53 – Stablecoins & Treasuries 00:26:54 – Japanese Debt & Carry Trade 00:29:50 – A.I. The New .com Bubble? 00:32:00 – Fed & Revaluing Gold? 00:38:23 – Gold ETF Inflows/Demand 00:39:35 – Silver Price Levels 00:43:13 – HUI Chart Vs. Gold 00:47:08 – What Could Go Wrong? 00:49:28 – Larry’s Book – The Big Print Guest Links: X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard [https://x.com/LawrenceLepard] Website: http://www.ema2.com [http://www.ema2.com] Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT [http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT] Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/llepard [https://tinyurl.com/llepard] Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities. Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II. Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.

Tom welcomes global economic consultant Simon Hunt back to the show. Simon provides a comprehensive analysis of current geopolitical and economic tensions, focusing on potential conflicts and economic challenges facing the world. The discussion centers on the upcoming Putin-Trump summit, which Hunt believes will likely produce no substantial outcomes, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict expected to continue and be ultimately decided on the battlefield. Hunt suggests significant geopolitical risks exist, particularly in the Middle East, with potential escalations involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Simon emphasizes that Washington’s broader strategic objective is to prevent the BRICS nations from maturing into a genuine opposition to the current unilateral world order. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in September could be a pivotal moment in reshaping global dynamics. Economically, Hunt warns of potential recessionary pressures, with particular concerns about Europe’s financial stability. He notes that China’s economy is experiencing weakening demand, with manufacturing sectors showing signs of strain. The implementation of tariffs and trade uncertainties are creating significant business hesitation and potential long-term economic disruptions. Regarding inflation, Hunt predicts a potential inflationary surge by mid-2025, potentially reaching double-digit levels by 2027-2028. He highlights food prices as a critical indicator, with the FAO food price index showing concerning upward trends. The potential for war and continued monetary stimulus could exacerbate these inflationary pressures. In the commodities sector, particularly copper, Hunt anticipates a market correction with prices potentially falling to around $7,000 before potentially doubling by 2027-2028. He suggests that war could paradoxically become a driver of copper consumption. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:00 – Trump/Putin Outcomes 00:08:47 – Europe & Putin’s Interests 00:12:43 – Conflict Could Escalate 00:13:50 – Middle East Tensions 00:21:20 – China, Trade, & Taiwan 00:23:05 – War, Recession, or Both? 00:25:53 – Econ. Outlook For China 00:31:04 – Black Swans Or Grey Rhinos 00:33:06 – Recession & Moar Stimulus 00:36:20 – Inflation – Cause & Effect 00:40:48 – Tariffs & Chaotic Prices 00:42:08 – Copper, Equities, Liquidation 00:45:55 – Copper Price Spikes 00:47:19 – Trade Avoiding The U.S. 00:50:26 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: E-Mail: mailto:simon@shss.com [simon@shss.com] Website: https://simon-hunt.com/ [https://simon-hunt.com/] Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/ [https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/] Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia. In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe. He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level. He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia. The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected. Simon established this company in January 1996.