smarterscout: The Why in Analytics

Dan answers questions from listeners, followers on social media, and smarterscout.com users on a wide variety of topics: top-down versus bottom-up metrics, spotting potential in young players, hard-to-measure skills in defending, adjusting metrics for differences between leagues, how to get into football/soccer analytics, and more. Support the show [http://smarterscout.com] (http://smarterscout.com)

Contributions to winning aren't the only things that football/soccer clubs might want to measure. Playing style has an important role in recruitment, and specific skills like finishing and winning aerial duels can be the crucial raw materials for tactical success – and for the careers of young players. Dan explains various approaches for gauging style and comparing players within and across positions, then moves on to the breakthroughs that pushed skill ratings forward. Support the show [http://smarterscout.com] (http://smarterscout.com)

Each action during a match changes the probability of scoring, and these changes can become part of a model of ball progression. Dan explains how expected goals from ball progression can complement expected goal from shot creation, both in evaluating players and in predicting results. He also shows how both kinds of expected goals can form the basis for tactical tools, sometimes most effectively when they work in combination. Support the show [http://smarterscout.com] (http://smarterscout.com)

Breaking down goal difference into its component parts shows how expected goals from shot creation – the chance of scoring for each shot, estimated from historical data – can be the foundation for a model of the game. Dan explains how this model can be used to rate both attacking and defending, then considers the judgment calls implicit in using this kind of model to evaluate players. Intro: "Crackle & Pop" by Digital Primitives Outro: "No Holiday" by Digital Primitives Support the show [http://smarterscout.com] (http://smarterscout.com)

There's an infinite number of mathematical models that might explain the game of football/soccer, but how can we strike a balance between usefulness and simplicity? Dan considers the advantages and drawbacks of models using goals, and shots, then begins to explain how expected goals – a measure of shots' chances of scoring – might capture information for rating teams and players. Intro: "Crackle & Pop" by Digital Primitives Outro: "No Holiday" by Digital Primitives Support the show [http://smarterscout.com] (http://smarterscout.com)