#874: Guy Oseary — The Legendary Hollywood Power Broker on 5-Minute Decisions, 36 Years of Managing Madonna, 26 IPOs, and Spotting Magic First

#874: Guy Oseary — The Legendary Hollywood Power Broker on 5-Minute Decisions, 36 Years of Managing Madonna, 26 IPOs, and Spotting Magic First

Guy Oseary (@guyoseary [https://www.instagram.com/guyoseary/?hl=en]) has been spotting talent before anyone else could see it for nearly four decades. Under his leadership at Maverick Records, Maverick sold more than 100 million albums. Guy has managed some of the biggest names in music, including Madonna, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, and U2, and was named Variety's Music Mogul of the Year in 2022. He executive produced Twilight, which became one of the most successful franchises in movie history, generating more than $3.5B.  Guy was also an early investor in Vita Coco and co-founded A-Grade Investments and then Sound Ventures [https://www.soundventures.com/], now with nearly $2 billion under management. At A-Grade, his hits included Airbnb, Uber, and Spotify. Sound Ventures launched with less than $100M and has since had 86 exits and 26 IPOs. This episode is brought to you by: * Momentous [https://livemomentous.com/Tim] high-quality creatine for cognitive and muscular support: https://livemomentous.com/Tim [https://livemomentous.com/Tim] * AG1 [https://drinkag1.com/tim] all-in-one nutritional supplement: DrinkAG1.com/Tim [https://drinkag1.com/tim] Timestamps * [00:00:00] Start. * [00:02:01] How a West Hollywood balcony became a backstage pass. * [00:03:51] A knife on Pico Boulevard and the snap decision to switch schools. * [00:05:54] Faking a Beverly Hills address to get inside another world. * [00:08:10] Wise Guy Records: a 15-year-old builds a portfolio out of nothing. * [00:10:09] Guy's alternative terms when Bernie Brillstein offered $25,000. * [00:11:34] The one moment that confirmed Guy was on the right path. * [00:12:29] Freddy DeMann enters the picture and Guy proves himself with Ice-T's crew. * [00:15:07] A desk at Maverick Records in exchange for no salary. * [00:17:08] Chasing Hole and Rage Against the Machine — and losing both. * [00:23:34] Candlebox in five minutes: seeing thousands in a room of 30. * [00:24:11] Why "magic" beats everything else. * [00:26:37] Signing Alanis off a single song, and stopping Muse mid-audition. * [00:31:59] The real Alanis story: "Perfect," Joni Mitchell, and a 30-million-selling debut. * [00:35:24] What Madonna taught Guy about thinking without walls. * [00:38:50] From bands to Twilight: the power of a blank canvas. * [00:45:30] How Guy got into investing, and the IdeaLab bet that wiped him out before the crash. * [00:54:31] Why Guy is known as a great curator of people. * [00:58:32] The three-month window that caught OpenAI and Anthropic. * [01:06:07] AI music and the battle to ensure human musicians get paid. * [01:09:30] How Spotify solved the problems Napster couldn't overcome. * [01:14:50] SpaceX and Bitcoin: the ones that got away. * [01:17:32] The rewards, rigors, and responsibilities of back-to-back touring. * [01:21:44] Why Guy never stops to celebrate. * [01:24:45] Splitting with Ashton Kutcher after 20 years. * [01:27:30] Final thoughts on Guy's first podcast. * For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast [https://tim.blog/podcast/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=podcast-description]. For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsors [https://tim.blog/podcast-sponsors] Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday [https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/]. For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts [https://tim.blog/transcripts]. Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books [https://tim.blog/books]. Follow Tim: Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss [https://twitter.com/tferriss]  Instagram: instagram.com/timferriss [https://instagram.com/timferriss/] YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss [https://www.youtube.com/timferriss] Facebook: facebook.com/timferriss [https://www.facebook.com/TimFerriss/]  LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferriss [http://linkedin.com/in/timferriss] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].

#873: David Allen — The Art of Getting Things Done (GTD) (Repost)

For more than 40 years, David Allen [https://davidallen.substack.com/about] has worked with individuals and organizations around the world to help them stay clear, focused, and productive—without burning out. He is the author of the mega-bestseller Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress-Free Productivity [https://www.amazon.com/dp/0143126563?tag=offsitoftimfe-20]. Subscribe to David's Substack at davidallen.substack.com [http://davidallen.substack.com]. This episode was originally published in September 2019. Show notes: https://tim.blog/2019/09/03/david-allen-getting-things-done/ [https://tim.blog/2019/09/03/david-allen-getting-things-done/] This episode is brought to you by: * Shopify [https://shopify.com/tim] global commerce platform, providing tools to start, grow, market, and manage a retail business: Shopify.com/tim [https://shopify.com/tim] * Eight Sleep Pod Cover 5 [https://www.eightsleep.com/tim/] sleeping solution for dynamic cooling and heating: EightSleep.com/Tim [https://www.eightsleep.com/tim/] * AG1 [https://drinkag1.com/tim] all-in-one nutritional supplement: DrinkAG1.com/Tim [https://drinkag1.com/tim] * 5-Bullet Friday [https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/?utm_source=timblog&utm_medium=timblog&utm_campaign=podcast-sponsorship], my very own free email newsletter: https://tim.blog/friday [https://tim.blog/friday] Timestamps: * [00:00:00] Start. * [00:03:12] As David once told Chase Jarvis: "Your mind is made for having ideas, not for holding ideas." What did he mean by this? * [00:06:06] What are the first questions and exercises David presents when he begins coaching high-functioning but overwhelmed people? * [00:08:28] What are the consequences of breaking an agreement with yourself, why are you most likely to break such an agreement, and what are your options for recovering from a broken agreement? * [00:11:35] David's best tips for renegotiating an agreement when the need arises. * [00:17:01] Where does David keep his backlog? * [00:18:25] What are the pros and cons of keeping track of information in digital versus analog format? * [00:20:00] As a teenager, what did David want to be when he grew up? * [00:24:08] What did David's college and career path look like, and how did it steer him toward understanding models for navigating life's complexities? * [00:25:48] What David can piece together from Berkeley, 1968 and the long list of careers that followed — leading to the formation of the principles detailed in GTD. * [00:30:32] What mentors does David credit as being instrumental in his creation of GTD? * [00:33:09] What are next action decisions, and how do they differ from what people generally put on their to-do lists? * [00:36:24] The capture list, the two-minute rule, and emptying the in-basket. * [00:37:22] Top-down versus bottom-up systems and understanding the hierarchy of priorities. * [00:43:02] What led to the Allens' relocation to Amsterdam, and what quality of life improvements have he and his wife noticed since moving there? * [00:48:29] How long did it take for the Allens to go from thinking about the possibility of moving from Ojai to Amsterdam to actually going through with it? * [00:50:50] What does David consider his most fruitful — though seemingly counterintuitive — life decision? * [00:55:34] One of David's mentors in Berkeley claimed to have extra-sensory abilities. Did David ever experience evidence of this in person? * [00:56:58] David shares a particularly difficult period of time in his life, what led to it, and what happened in its aftermath. * [01:01:21] What does the word "spiritual" mean to David? * [01:02:14] What does David's meditation practice look like these days — and what does he recommend for someone who wants to start meditating? * [01:02:58] What was David's biggest takeaway from the time he spent in a mental institution? * [01:04:05] Does David ever feel overwhelmed or unfocused? If so, how does he deal with it? * [01:05:02] Are there any new beliefs, behaviors, or habits that have materially improved David's life in the last handful of years? * [01:06:19] Books (aside from his own) that David has gifted or recommended most to others. * [01:07:13] What are David's bedtime and morning routines, and how much sleep does he get every night? * [01:08:48] Is there anything about GTD David wishes more adherents would heed? Does anything important get commonly missed? * [01:10:25] What are the steps of the GTD weekly review? Does David recommend doing it at any particular day or time? * [01:12:40] Are there certain categories of things to which David simply says "No" as a default? * [01:14:00] How does David filter unpleasant people out of his life? * [01:14:52] Why GTD is intended as a force for freedom and creativity, not a yawnworthy paean to rigid structure — as Brad Keywell, Howard Stern, Will Smith, and Robert Downey, Jr. can testify. * [01:18:58] Is the GTD weekly review inherently a solo process, or can it involve someone's group, staff, or family? * [01:19:38] What does David use to organize his email? * [01:20:58] Does David use any particular app or program for pulling material like articles or references from the Web? * [01:22:13] Are there any quotes by which David tries to live his life? * [01:22:48] What would David's billboard say? * [01:23:16] Does David still have hope that people will do something with the space created by GTD to answer life's bigger questions? * [01:25:35] Parting thoughts. * For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast [https://tim.blog/podcast/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=podcast-description]. For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsors [https://tim.blog/podcast-sponsors] Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday [https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/]. For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts [https://tim.blog/transcripts]. Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books [https://tim.blog/books]. Follow Tim: Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss [https://twitter.com/tferriss]  Instagram: instagram.com/timferriss [https://instagram.com/timferriss/] YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss [https://www.youtube.com/timferriss] Facebook: facebook.com/timferriss [https://www.facebook.com/TimFerriss/]  LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferriss [http://linkedin.com/in/timferriss] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].

#872: Graham Duncan — Talent Is the Best Asset Class (Repost)

Graham Duncan [https://grahamduncan.blog/] (@GrahamDuncanNYC [https://x.com/GrahamDuncanNYC]) is the co-founder of East Rock Capital [https://eastrockcap.com/], a multibillion-dollar multi-family investment office he launched in 2006. He is also Chairman of the Sohn Conference Foundation [https://www.sohnconference.org/], which funds pediatric cancer research. This episode was originally published in February 2019. Show notes: https://tim.blog/2019/02/28/graham-duncan/ [https://tim.blog/2019/02/28/graham-duncan/] This episode is brought to you by: * Shopify [https://shopify.com/tim] global commerce platform, providing tools to start, grow, market, and manage a retail business: Shopify.com/tim [https://shopify.com/tim] * Eight Sleep Pod Cover 5 [https://www.eightsleep.com/tim/] sleeping solution for dynamic cooling and heating: EightSleep.com/Tim [https://www.eightsleep.com/tim/] * AG1 [https://drinkag1.com/tim] all-in-one nutritional supplement: DrinkAG1.com/Tim [https://drinkag1.com/tim] * 5-Bullet Friday [https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/?utm_source=timblog&utm_medium=timblog&utm_campaign=podcast-sponsorship], my very own free email newsletter: https://tim.blog/friday [https://tim.blog/friday] Timestamps: * [00:00:00] Start. * [00:02:29] I think of Graham as far more than an investor. How does he describe what he does? * [00:06:13] Absent the systems and frameworks he's honed over time, what made Graham a good talent hunter at the tender age of 24? * [00:08:42] What constitutes taste when Graham is scouting for talent these days? * [00:11:14] Upon meeting someone, how does Graham stress-test whether or not someone is "commercial" in the way they balance aggression and integrity? * [00:16:49] One high-signal question Graham has found particularly useful when trying to determine the quality of anyone from a trader to an OB/GYN. * [00:19:17] When interviewing a potential candidate, how does Graham vet their given references? * [00:22:21] On approaching the reference process with curiosity rather than an attempt to catch anyone with a "gotcha." * [00:25:34] Why does mutual friend Josh Waitzkin call Graham The Wild Gardener? * [00:27:04] How does Graham deal with contradictory perspectives — when the data is telling him one thing and his gut is telling him another? * [00:29:09] What does Graham do to familiarize himself with the way people underwrite their mental models (besides nearly beheading them)? * [00:30:29] Graham talks about his role as an investment coach, of sorts, and how he picks the best "players" for the game at hand. * [00:31:53] What other patterns has Graham noticed in the successful talent he's ended up selecting? * [00:36:06] In what way have others helped Graham surface his hidden assumptions, and how might a coach do the same for others? * [00:39:17] An example of when Graham's "grip" has been a bit too tight around his own beliefs. * [00:40:09] What Byron Katie has taught us about articulating the opposite of such beliefs — and having a mindful lunch. * [00:46:18] When evaluating a team, how does Graham think about each person developing the ability to look at the opposite versus hiring to end up at that optimal mixture? * [00:49:12] How might someone train to more clearly see disconfirming evidence — and roll with the punches when their instincts lead them toward regrettable decisions? * [00:42:21] What books does Graham gift to others most often? * [00:56:11] An aside about Wim Hof and Josh Waitzkin embracing "the other side of pain" to get the most out of life. * [00:59:31] How does James Carse's distinction of finite and infinite games apply to finance, and how would Graham test a potential teammate for compatible sensibility? * [01:02:41] How likely would it be for Graham to invest in a Jocko Willink project? * [01:04:16] Different people have different ways of sniffing around direct questions. Here are a few examples. * [01:05:54] Graham explains what this Kwame Appiah quote means to him: "In life the challenge is not so much to figure out how best to play the game; the challenge is to figure out what game you're playing." * [01:08:13] Going by David Foster Wallace's famous commencement speech, what's your water? Podcasting helps me see mine. * [01:09:32] Graham's take on Greg McKeown's Essentialism. * [01:10:31] How Graham sees careers as a river (with a nod of thanks to neuroscientists Dan Siegel and Tina Payne Bryson's model of well-being). * [01:12:53] Toward which bank do the top one percent in any given field swim? What if that field is financial markets? What if that field is writing fiction novels? * [01:16:39] The differences between millionaires, billionaires, cultural billionaires, and time billionaires. * [01:18:47] An idea for how Tim Urban might allow for personalization of his 90-year-life calendar. * [01:20:00] Are you more concerned about the length of your life or its width? * [01:20:38] Life changes Graham and I have both made as a direct result of reading Tim Urban's "The Tail End" piece at Wait But Why. * [01:22:05] How does Graham try to appreciate the width of his life? * [01:25:05] Aside from the aforementioned Kwame Appiah quote, what might Graham put on his billboard? * [01:25:52] The power to be found in treating negative feelings like welcome party guests. * [01:27:43] Parting thoughts from Mark Twain and Graham. * For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast [https://tim.blog/podcast/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=podcast-description]. For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsors [https://tim.blog/podcast-sponsors] Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday [https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/]. For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts [https://tim.blog/transcripts]. Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books [https://tim.blog/books]. Follow Tim: Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss [https://twitter.com/tferriss]  Instagram: instagram.com/timferriss [https://instagram.com/timferriss/] YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss [https://www.youtube.com/timferriss] Facebook: facebook.com/timferriss [https://www.facebook.com/TimFerriss/]  LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferriss [http://linkedin.com/in/timferriss] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].

#871: The “Divine Leaf” with 8,000+ Years of Use — Exploring the Many Benefits of Coca with Dr. Andrew Weil and Wade Davis

"Coca is to cocaine what potatoes are to vodka" — Dr. Andrew Weil and Wade Davis on the health benefits, sacred history, and unjust prohibition of the most misunderstood plant on Earth. Dr. Andrew Weil is a pioneer in integrative medicine and founder of the Andrew Weil Center for Integrative Medicine at the University of Arizona, where he holds the Lovell-Jones Endowed Chair and serves as Clinical Professor of Medicine and Professor of Public Health. Wade Davis is an ethnographer, writer, photographer, and filmmaker. From 2014 to 2024 he served as Professor of Anthropology and BC Leadership Chair in Cultures and Ecosystems at Risk at the University of British Columbia, and from 2000 to 2013 as Explorer-in-Residence at the National Geographic Society. Connect with the Beneficial Plant Research Association (BPRA): Website [https://www.bpra.org/] (scroll down to donate) | Coca Leaf Research [https://www.bpra.org/cocaleaf/research] | Coca Leaf Documentary [https://www.bpra.org/cocaleafdocumentary] | Coca Leaf Retreat [https://www.bpra.org/coca-retreat] This episode is brought to you by: * Incogni, [https://incogni.com/tim]which removes your personal data from the web, helping shield you from fraud, scams, and identity theft: Incogni.com/Tim [https://incogni.com/tim] (use code TIM at checkout and get 60% off an annual plan) * Maui Nui Venison [https://mauinuivenison.com/tim] delicious, nutrient-dense, and responsible red meat: https://mauinuivenison.com/tim [https://mauinuivenison.com/tim] * 5-Bullet Friday [https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/?utm_source=timblog&utm_medium=timblog&utm_campaign=podcast-sponsorship], my very own free email newsletter: https://tim.blog/friday [https://tim.blog/friday] Timestamps: * [00:00:00] Start. * [00:02:38] When coca tea cured my brutal altitude sickness in Chile. * [00:04:01] Andy meets coca, 1965: the Andes' master medicine for gut, energy, mood, metabolism. * [00:06:20] 14 alkaloids, one scapegoat. * [00:07:11] The paradox: one remedy for both diarrhea and constipation. * [00:11:37] 8,000 years, zero addiction — and the 1975 study no one wanted to run. * [00:13:11] Eradication began 60 years before there was a cocaine problem. * [00:16:27] Two nations inside Peru: alcohol versus coca. * [00:17:05] The 1950 UN commission that dictated coca policy by pseudoscience, fear, and racism. * [00:18:10] Filed beside fentanyl and heroin; 250,000 families and the price of peace. * [00:20:03] What coca actually feels like: milder than half a coffee, no crash, no withdrawal. * [00:24:19] Decoupling the leaf from the cartels; why crop substitution is a fantasy. * [00:25:54] Domesticated three times; the accident of Schedule II. * [00:27:49] The sacred leaf: k'intu, cruceta, Pachamama, runakuna. * [00:31:11] Hayo in the Sierra Nevada, and Latin America's most-denied gift. * [00:32:53] The wedge in the door: demand, the FDA, and an entrepreneur's gold mine. * [00:40:22] The story coca deserves — a film, green powders, and one good study. * [00:43:12] Monkey mind, the tax of consciousness, and an 84th birthday on coca. * [00:47:35] Who to fund: McCurdy and the hunt for legal leaves. * [00:49:17] Could coca treat cocaine addiction? Cost, and NIDA's timing. * [00:53:18] "Green cocaine" at the airport: coca is to cocaine as potatoes are to vodka. * [00:56:58] A 24-hour ritual run powered entirely by coca. * [00:59:07] Why two men gave their careers to one leaf — and the pharmaceutical body count. * [01:06:22] America's legal cocaine capital, and Coke's secret recipe. * [01:09:08] No accident: the hideous prose behind laws we still obey. * [01:15:42] Parting thoughts. * For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast [https://tim.blog/podcast/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=podcast-description]. For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsors [https://tim.blog/podcast-sponsors] Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday [https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/]. For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts [https://tim.blog/transcripts]. Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books [https://tim.blog/books]. Follow Tim: Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss [https://twitter.com/tferriss]  Instagram: instagram.com/timferriss [https://instagram.com/timferriss/] YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss [https://www.youtube.com/timferriss] Facebook: facebook.com/timferriss [https://www.facebook.com/TimFerriss/]  LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferriss [http://linkedin.com/in/timferriss] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].

#870: Sebastian Mallaby, Biographer of Demis Hassabis — Lessons from 100+ AI Insiders on The Race to Superintelligence, The Religion of AI, and Spotting Breakthroughs Early

Sebastian Mallaby (@scmallaby [https://x.com/scmallaby]) is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics [https://www.cfr.org/paul-volcker-chair-international-economics] at the Council on Foreign Relations, a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, and the author of six books, including More Money Than God [https://www.amazon.com/More-Money-Than-God-Relations/dp/0143119419/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20], The Power Law [https://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/052555999X/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20], The Man Who Knew [https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Knew-Times-Greenspan-ebook/dp/B01CDVCAXS/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20], and The World's Banker [https://www.amazon.com/Worlds-Banker-Financial-Poverty-Relations-ebook/dp/B01MUNOYM9/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20]. His latest book is The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence [https://www.amazon.com/Infinity-Machine-Hassabis-DeepMind-Superintelligence/dp/0593831845/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20]. This episode is brought to you by: * Eight Sleep Pod Cover 5 [https://www.eightsleep.com/tim/] sleeping solution for dynamic cooling and heating: EightSleep.com/Tim [https://www.eightsleep.com/tim/] * AG1 Pro [https://drinkag1.com/tim] all-in-one nutritional supplement: DrinkAG1.com/Tim [https://drinkag1.com/tim] * Wealthfront [http://wealthfront.com/Tim] high-yield cash account: Wealthfront.com/Tim [https://wealthfront.com/Tim]  Wealthfront disclaimer: New clients get 3.30% base APY from program banks + additional 0.75% boost for 3 months on your uninvested cash [https://wealthfront.com/Tim] (max $150k balance). Terms and conditions apply. The Cash Account offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC (“WFB”) member FINRA/SIPC, not a bank. The base APY as of 1/30/26 is representative, can change, and requires no minimum. Tim Ferriss, a non-client, receives compensation from WFB for advertising and holds a non-controlling equity interest in the corporate parent of WFB, which creates a conflict of interest. Individual experiences and outcomes will differ. Instant withdrawals may be limited by your receiving firm and other factors. Investment advisory services provided by Wealthfront Advisers LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Securities investments: not bank deposits, not bank-guaranteed or FDIC-insured, and may lose value. * Timestamps * [00:00:00] Start. * [00:02:11] The twinkly eyed polymath who became Sebastian's next book. * [00:06:55] Picking the next book project the way a great VC picks a startup. * [00:09:41] Why God keeps crashing the superintelligence party. * [00:11:13] Shane Legg's grainy 2009 prophecy — and the nervous giggle. * [00:13:11] Ilya Sutskever burns an effigy. * [00:13:54] Demis at 4 a.m., hunting God's algorithm. * [00:18:43] Super-abundance, Mad Max, and the China shock lesson. * [00:22:39] The kitchen debate with Geoff Hinton that flipped Sebastian. * [00:24:06] Why a zero-percent chance of doom is indefensible. * [00:24:52] Will Washington seize the labs? The Mythos wake-up call. * [00:27:18] Anthropic's bull case, bear case, and a dead parent's letter. * [00:33:24] Where Sebastian and Benedict Evans part ways. * [00:38:16] Is the SaaS apocalypse overdone? One word: Palantir. * [00:39:53] The AI friend you'll never switch. * [00:41:56] Does Google win consumer AI by default? * [00:44:45] Four cities, eight days: China actually talks safety. * [00:47:28] A Cold War non-proliferation playbook for AI. * [00:49:45] Did the chip export controls actually work? * [00:51:49] Burned doves: why Washington swears China won't talk. * [00:54:56] "By 2028, the race is over" — one lab boss' bet. * [00:59:11] Inside Hikvision: toddlers, sensors, and US sanctions. * [01:01:07] Bill Gurley's Uber bet: venture capital perfected. * [01:05:18] Luke Nosek bear-hugs DeepMind into existence. * [01:10:52] Thiel's heresy: never invest by committee. * [01:11:59] How Founders Fund nearly fumbled the deal of the century. * [01:14:30] Selling to Google for $650M: a secret British heist? * [01:16:41] The Traitorous Eight, gardening leave, and the UK's to-do list. * [01:20:55] Ender's Game: "That's really how I see myself." * [01:23:42] Too dumb for Gödel, Escher, Bach? Maybe an LLM can help. * [01:25:19] If not Demis or Sam, then Dario. * [01:26:04] My royalties cliff — and what dropped in late 2022. * [01:27:47] Lila Sciences and the labs that run themselves. * [01:31:13] Sebastian's billboard: "Prepare your mind." * [01:35:14] The one thing Sebastian will never outsource to AI. * [01:40:09] Parting thoughts. For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast [https://tim.blog/podcast/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=podcast-description]. For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show [https://tim.blog/podcast], please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsors [https://tim.blog/podcast-sponsors] Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday [https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/]. For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts [https://tim.blog/transcripts]. Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books [https://tim.blog/books]. 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