UBS On-Air: Market Moves

UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Podcast by Client Strategy Office

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About UBS On-Air: Market Moves

UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior

Kaikki jaksot

256 jaksot
episode UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fearing fear' artwork
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fearing fear'

We should be getting US personal income and spending data today, but because the US lacks a properly functioning government we are getting no such thing. This matters because the resilient middle-income consumer has kept the US from recession this year. Credit card data hints that this is still the case, but if fear of unemployment were to rise, downside risks would quickly emerge. The longer the government is shutdown, the greater the role of rumor in the economy—and as bad news sells better, there is a risk that unwarranted fear gains ground in the absence of actual facts.

31.10.2025 - 2 min
episode UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'British style' artwork
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'British style'

The Federal Reserve spoke with an almost British accent yesterday, cutting rates a quarter point with a Bank of England-like three-way vote split. Fed Chair Powell signaled that a December cut was not inevitable. While a majority clearly favored insuring against the risks of a brittle US labor market today, there are fears about future inflation pressures and the lack of credible US economic data.

Eilen - 2 min
episode UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Another little cut' artwork
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Another little cut'

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates a quarter point. The absence of credible short-term data since the last Fed meeting means policymakers cannot follow Fed Chair Powell’s “data dependency” mantra and must instead focus on economic trends. Market interest will be focused on the spectrum of views, the tone of the press conference, and (inevitably) speculation about Powell’s successor.

29.10.2025 - 2 min
episode UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Italian States of America' artwork
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Italian States of America'

The IMF suggested that the US government debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed that of Italy by the end of the decade. There is no reason to suppose this IMF forecast is more accurate than any other IMF forecast, but the trend is clear. Italian parallels are a reason not to panic. Italy is a very wealth country, and has successfully mobilized private wealth to help fund its debt. The US is a reasonably wealth country and could do likewise. The UK’s Truss debacle reminds us that funding government debt (not the debt level itself) is what matters.

28.10.2025 - 2 min
episode UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Less tense?' artwork
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Less tense?'

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to have moved into a “dial down” phase after the recent escalation. While details will probably not be given until the proposed meeting between US President Trump and China’s President Xi later this week, the threatened 100% tariff on US consumers of China’s exports appears to have been removed.

27.10.2025 - 2 min
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Loistava design ja vihdoin on helppo löytää podcasteja, joista oikeasti tykkää
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Sitten 7,99 € / kuukausiPeru milloin tahansa.

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