Signal over Noise with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'One Federal Reserve, many voices?'

The Federal Reserve’s December 2025 policy decision is finally revealed. The Fed has seemingly not attempted to change general expectations of a rate cut. Conspiracy theorists might suggest not delaying the meeting until the release of employment data implies Fed Chair Powell is confident about cutting—but there is likely to be some dissent. Dissent may cause trouble for Powell’s successor, if they command less respect than Powell.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Twelve billion dollars'

Germany’s October trade surplus was larger than expected, principally because of a steeper fall in import demand. Globally, trade away from the US remains robust and (more or less) normal.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'One trillion dollars'

China’s trade surplus exceeded one trillion US dollars in the 11 months to November. Round numbers do not matter in economics, but trends do. This surplus will help China meet its official growth target, compensating for somewhat lackluster domestic demand.

Signal over Noise with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 7 December 2025.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Consuming savings'

Today we get information on the US consumer—but unfortunately it is a mix of old data and misdirection. September personal income and spending numbers (and the consumer expenditure deflator) should show the US consumer spending even as inflation pressures have built. Since April, consumer durable goods prices have added to inflation (having previously reduced it), for instance. However consumers have cut their savings rate to cover the price increases, keeping consumption stable.