More Stress than Strategy: Episode 26

Tehran, Taiwan, & The Knicks: Episode 31

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass take stock of a world long on ceasefires and short on strategy. They begin with the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the subject of Haass’s recent Home and Away essay, bluntly titled “Defeat,” and ask whether the deal is less diplomacy than capitulation: vague on the nuclear question, silent on missiles, generous to Tehran, and dangerous for Israel and America’s partners. From there, they turn to Netanyahu’s narrowing room for maneuver, JD Vance’s warning to Israel, and the erosion of U.S. reliability. They then discuss Haass’s forthcoming Foreign Affairs essay with Council on Foreign Relations Taiwan expert David Sacks on Taiwan, arms sales, and the risk of treating commitments as bargaining chips. Finally, they touch on Keir Starmer’s troubles, Wyndham Clark at Shinnecock, the Knicks’ improbable championship. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack [https://www.news-items.com/] Home and Away on Substack [https://richardhaass.substack.com/] Produced by Dale Eisinger [https://www.daleweisinger.com/about]

Tehran, Pyongyang, Los Angeles...and MSG: Episode 30

John Ellis and Richard Haass take up a world in which problems are less solved than managed. Iran remains unfinished business, with the future of the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits on Iran, and sanctions relief all in play. What is certain is that the Gulf states face a future of greater uncertainty, with some likely to try to come to terms with Iran and others more inclined to confront it. China’s outreach to North Korea reveals an effort on Xi Jinping's part to reestablish influence there as well as the unease beneath his partnership with Putin as Russia's war with Ukraine grows more costly, less winnable, and harder to exit. At home, California’s elections and urban progressive politics point to intra-Democratic tensions heading toward 2028. And, inevitably, the Knicks, with one of our two hosts going with his head and the other his heart. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack [https://www.news-items.com/] Home and Away on Substack [https://richardhaass.substack.com/] Produced by Dale Eisinger [https://www.daleweisinger.com/about]

Pope Leo, AI, and the Knicks: Episode 29

For years, artificial intelligence occupied the familiar territory of technological optimism: faster growth, greater efficiency, and the promise that innovation would solve more problems than it created. That era may be ending. This week on Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis examine the rapid emergence of AI not simply as a business story, but as a political, strategic, and even theological one. Prompted by a sweeping papal encyclical warning against surrendering human judgment to machines, the conversation explores the widening backlash against Silicon Valley’s concentration of power and the growing fear that societies are drifting into dependence on systems they neither understand nor control. From the possibility of AI regulation and U.S.-China competition to the surprising coalition forming between populists, evangelicals, and labor skeptics, Haass argues that the debate over artificial intelligence is quickly becoming a debate about governance itself. Also: early 2028 political maneuvering, Texas intrigue, and the improbable emotional stability of New York Knicks fans. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack [https://www.news-items.com/] Home and Away on Substack [https://richardhaass.substack.com/] Produced by Dale Eisinger [https://www.daleweisinger.com/about]

The Strait, the Summit, and the Slush Fund: Episode 28

In this week’s Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis begin with Iran, which remains suspended in the uneasy territory between war and peace.  Washington appears to be inching toward a revised nuclear arrangement that resembles, in substance if not in branding, the very deal Donald Trump tore up in his first term. Also emerging are growing tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may come to regret advocating for a war that has created growing problems for Israel's relations with its most important patron. In Asia, Trump’s remarks on Taiwan raise unsettling questions about whether support for Taiwan could be traded off in exchange for increased access to China's market. The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where mounting Russian casualties, strikes deep inside Russian territory, and growing signs of political anxiety around Vladimir Putin suggest the war may be nearing an end on terms closer to Ukraine's than Russia's. Domestically, Senate Republicans might finally be balking at the political excesses and corruption of the Trump administration, which is turning into a political liability with all but hard-core Republican voters. The episode closes, as always, with sports, which thanks to the Knicks and the PGA provide an upbeat final few minutes.   Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack [https://www.news-items.com/] Home and Away on Substack [https://richardhaass.substack.com/] Produced by Dale Eisinger [https://www.daleweisinger.com/about]

Bored of War: Episode 27

John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss the latest on multiple wars, actual and political. They review the absence of good options for ending the war with Iran, noting that wars dont necessarily end when one side (in this case Donald Trump) has had enough.  The big question as the President heads to China is what he might be prepared to give up on Taiwan or chips to get Xi’s help with Iran or on trade. The surprising good news is how the tide of war is slowly but steadily turning against Vladimir Putin in his increasingly unsuccessful war of choice against Ukraine. Peace or at least a lasting ceasefire may be closer than many realize. Closer to home, the two look at the partisan wars in several states over redistricting, which for now seem to be favoring the Republicans but no matter what the result are sure to leave American politics more polarized and the political center losing out to the extremes.  Last but never least, Ellis and Haass turn to sports, in this case to celebrate the Knicks who are playing their best basketball of the year and who could well end up in the NBA finals if they manage to keep it up and stay healthy. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack [https://www.news-items.com/] Home and Away on Substack [https://richardhaass.substack.com/] Produced by Dale Eisinger [https://www.daleweisinger.com/about]