Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook

Corn, Soybeans & Wheat Rally After White House China Announcement Thumbnail: $17B AG DEAL

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest White House announcement on U.S.-China trade negotiations — and why grain and oilseed markets reacted sharply higher to start the week. In this May 18 update, Arlan covers: * What the alleged new China ag purchase agreement includes * Why soybean markets rallied overnight * The significance of the proposed $17B in additional U.S. ag purchases * What this could mean for corn, wheat, beef, ethanol, and other commodities * Why traders remain reluctant to build large short positions * How China’s weaker economic data may influence future buying * What to watch next for crop progress, weather, and export demand * Why biofuels and fertilizer concerns continue supporting the Ag markets Stay ahead of the markets with Arlan’s Market Intelligence Plan: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001828&utm_medium=organicsocial&utm_campaign=stonexsocial_USaginsights_yt&utm_content=organic_USaginsight_v1_20250821 [https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001828&utm_medium=organicsocial&utm_campaign=stonexsocial_USaginsights_yt&utm_content=organic_USaginsight_v1_20250821] Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX. #ArlanSuderman #StoneX #Soybeans #CornMarkets #WheatMarkets #ChinaTrade #AgMarkets #CommodityMarkets #Biofuels #GrainMarkets #Exports #Agriculture

Grain Markets Slide Despite Bullish USDA Report, China Talks & Inflation Risks

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why grain and oilseed markets are under pressure despite bullish supply fundamentals, tightening global inventories, and ongoing inflation concerns. In this May 15 update, Arlan covers: - Why investor money flow and market sentiment are overriding traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals - How computerized trading and headline-driven momentum are impacting grain and oilseed markets - What disappointed the markets following President Trump’s trade meetings with China - Why expectations for major Chinese soybean purchases may be unrealistic - How the USDA’s latest outlook tightened supply expectations for corn and wheat - Why E15 legislation could still have major implications for long-term demand - How inflation, treasury yields, and energy markets continue to support commodities longer term - Why fertilizer shortages could become a major supply issue heading into 2027 - What producers and end users should watch as volatility accelerates Stay ahead of the markets with Arlan’s Market Intelligence Plan: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001 [https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001] Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX. #ArlanSuderman #StoneX #Commodities #AgMarkets #GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #ChinaTrade #Inflation #RiskManagement

Big Week for Commodities: Iran War, China Deal & USDA WASDE Could Move Markets

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, outlines why this is a pivotal week for commodities — with the Iran conflict, U.S.–China trade negotiations, and the USDA WASDE report all converging to drive market direction. In this May 11 update, Arlan covers: * Why the ongoing Iran conflict continues to tighten global energy and fertilizer supplies * How disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are impacting oil, inflation, and global growth * What to expect from President Trump’s trip to Beijing and potential U.S.–China trade agreements * Which ag commodities could be included in a deal — and why soybeans may not be a major factor * Key expectations heading into the USDA WASDE report and new crop balance sheets * Why corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks may come in tighter than trade estimates * How markets could react to trade surprises, weather risks, or geopolitical developments * What to watch as volatility increases heading into summer Stay ahead of the markets with Arlan’s Market Intelligence Plan: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001… [https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001…] Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX. #ArlanSuderman #StoneX #Commodities #AgMarkets #WASDE #EnergyMarkets #OilMarkets #ChinaTrade #Iran #GrainMarkets

Is the Iran War Nearly Over? Why Supply Risk Still Isn’t Gone

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down signs that the Iran conflict may be nearing an end — and why that does not mean the market risk is over. In this April 17 update, Arlan covers: Why markets are reacting to signs the war may be winding down What the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for oil and shipping flows Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets are reversing as money flow shifts How damage to oil, gas, and fertilizer infrastructure could keep supply tight for months or longer Why fertilizer may become a bigger 2027 issue even if the conflict ends soon What to watch next as negotiations continue Stay ahead of the markets with Arlan’s Market Intelligence Plan: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001828&utm_medium=organicsocial&utm_campaign=stonexsocial_USaginsights_yt&utm_content=organic_USaginsight_v1_20250821 [https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001828&utm_medium=organicsocial&utm_campaign=stonexsocial_USaginsights_yt&utm_content=organic_USaginsight_v1_20250821] Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX. #ArlanSuderman #StoneX #OilMarkets #Fertilizer #GrainMarkets #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #Iran #OATT #OOTT

Iran Blockade Escalates: What It Means for Oil, Fertilizer & Grain Markets

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the weekend developments in Iran and what the latest U.S. blockade move could mean for commodity markets. In this update, Arlan covers: * Why the U.S. blockade marks a major escalation in the Iran conflict * What a shutdown of Iranian shipping could mean for oil and fertilizer flows * Why corn and wheat prices are trading above pure supply-and-demand fundamentals * How energy inflation and fertilizer shortages could keep elevating the floor under food-based commodities * Why Asia and Europe may feel the most acute shortages first * What China’s latest moves could mean for trade and Taiwan risk Stay ahead of the markets with Arlan’s Market Intelligence Plan: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001… [https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001…] Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX. #ArlanSuderman #StoneX #OilMarkets #Fertilizer #GrainMarkets #Corn #Wheat #CommodityMarkets #Iran #OATT #OOTT #Hormuz #Oilprices