Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 22, 2026

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | June 5, 2026

**Distribution Upheaval** - RNDC closes transfer of 11 markets to Reyes Beverage Group; Reyes now covers 52% of US LDA population - Additional RNDC market exits pending: Columbia Distributing (OR/WA), Martignetti (17 control states), Manhattan Beer (NY), Breakthru (KY/IN), Quality Brands (NE/SD/ND) - RNDC layoffs reach up to 4,677 positions across multiple states; NC, SC, OH facilities closing - Southern Glazer's acquires Clare Rose on Long Island; rebrands to Southern Glazer's Beverage Company in July - T.J. Sheehan acquires Eagle Beverage in Central New York (+3M cases) - Breakthru/Edrington launch Colorado distribution partnership for The Macallan, Highland Park, Brugal - Elenteny Imports rebrands to Elysia & Co - Hayden Beverage/Columbia Distributing partner in Idaho; Oliver Winery and Caymus Vineyards align with Reyes **Earnings & Corporate Strategy** - Brown-Forman FY2026: Net sales $3.9B (-1%); organic flat; EPS $1.53 (-17%); FY2027 guidance: organic sales flat, operating income -3% to -5% - Pernod Ricard merger talks officially dead; Sazerac ~$15B bid rejected; RBC argues M&A was clearest value path - Rémy Cointreau FY2026: Sales €935.3M; organic +0.2%; adjusted EPS €1.71 (beat by 7%); guides to organic growth in FY2027 - Treasury Wine Estates slashes brands from 76 to <30; selling CA wineries; consolidating around Penfolds, DAOU, Matua; targeting A$100M annual savings; H1 net loss A$649.4M - Costco Q3: Net sales $69.15B–$70.5B; US comps +6.8%–9.4%; EPS $4.93; traffic decelerating - Dollar Tree Q1: Net sales $4.975B (+7.2%); EPS $1.74 (+38%); raised full-year guidance - Dollar General Q1: Net sales $10.8B (+3.4%); EPS $2.00; 4th straight quarter of traffic growth; 450 new stores planned **Beer Market** - NBWA Beer Purchasers' Index at 52 (3rd consecutive month expansionary); at-risk inventory at 39 (lowest since 2021) - BA revises 2025 craft decline to -4% (from -5.1%); Yuengling data corrected; craft dollar share 24.8% - Legacy craft brands collectively lost $158M; emerging brands added only $17.5M - Domestic super premium only beer segment growing both dollars (+3%) and volume (+2.5%); Michelob Ultra the engine - Michelob Ultra Zero surged 622% to $91M; Athletic Brewing leads NA beer at $156M - Voodoo Ranger G Force cracks top 30 craft brands; Blue Moon, Samuel Adams Seasonal post double-digit declines - Draft beer at 9.6% of volume — highest since 2019 **RTD & Spirits Categories** - RTDs surpass vodka globally in value for first time (IWSR) - US spirits-based RTDs: +26.8% dollar sales L4W; +34.8% YTD - Top growth brands: Cutwater +124%, Sun Cruiser +113%, Good Boy Vodka +117%, Surfside +61% - Consolidation: ABI/BeatBox, Molson Coors/Atomic Brands & Monaco, Mark Anthony/Long Drink, Sazerac/Dirty Shirley - US tequila volumes slip for first time; super-premium -8%; value tier +8%; Becle Q1 US/Canada sales -26.3% - Gran Coramino reaches ~$200M cumulative sales; Lalo Tequila gains momentum post-Tito's investment **Whiskey Oversupply** - Industry inventory at ~1.5B gallons; inventory-to-production ratio ~85x vs. historical ~53x - Brown-Forman pauses Slane and Glenglassaugh distilleries - Whiskey House of Kentucky cuts 30% of workforce; operating at 60% capacity - TKC Distilling/True Story faces two lawsuits totaling ~$1.45M - Diageo signals more competitive US pricing across full price spectrum **M&A & Distress** - Uncle Nearest receivership: LOI signed with unnamed Black-owned investment firm for full asset sale - Press Premium Seltzer in receivership; owes ~$7M to Constellation's CBV Ventures + $4.3M to City Brewing - Voodoo Brewing crowdfunding investors told equity is total loss - Great Central Brewing faces $4.7M foreclosure - Carbliss openly for sale (~5.7M cases projected); SpikedAde projects 1M cases across 22 states - Tilray sells Atwater Brewery back to founder Mark Rieth - Wine M&A frozen: 40–60% buyer-seller valuation gap; worst sector slump in 30 years **Legal & Regulatory** - Boston Beer faces $191M judgment in Ardagh aluminum can contract case; appeal planned - Celsius/Alani Nu under Texas AG investigation for youth-oriented marketing - Furlong v. Brown: Maryland DtC beer delivery law struck down on Commerce Clause grounds; 8+ states with similar statutes potentially affected - Ninth Circuit orders Akin Gump to pay fees in Winebow/Franz Haas arbitration case - Cannabis: DOJ rescheduling hearing June 29; hemp ban amendment efforts blocked; HHC Schedule I challenged in two circuits **THC Beverages** - $239M in mainstream retail sales (52 weeks ending April 4); +135% YoY; 1,170+ UPCs, 200+ brands - 50% of US adults (~130M people) express interest in trying THC beverages - Strongest in liquor stores ($132M), convenience ($55M), grocery ($49M) **Trade & Tariffs** - 8 of 10 Canadian provinces still ban US liquor; Phillips Distilling lost 70% of Canadian business - Phillips relocated Sour Puss production to Montreal to re-qualify for Canadian shelves - Wine Institute sent 14-executive delegation to D.C. to lobby for Canadian market restoration - Rémy Cointreau estimates €20M in FY2027 tariff impact (€15M US, €5M China) **Consumer & Retail Trends** - Only 54% of Americans drinking alcohol — lowest since Gallup tracking began in 1939 - "Reverse happy hours" (9:30 PM–midnight) emerging as on-premise value/experience strategy - Private label share declining in aggregate but retailer commitment deepening (Kroger, Walmart) - Scotch POS raises $20M Series A; surpasses $1B annual GPV - The Daily Pour acquires Whiskey Riot; plans 30+ events in 2027 - US on-premise wine characterized as "winner-take-all" with top brands holding 8–15% penetration - CA bulk wine market in "narrowing window": record gallons on paper but quality-specific tightening

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 29, 2026

**Key Themes This Week:** - US beverage alcohol market broadly declining across all categories; consumer sentiment near historic lows - Spirit-based RTDs are the sole clear growth engine within spirits - Non-alcoholic beer continues rapid ascent, led by Athletic Brewing and Go Brewing - Wine faces a six-year structural contraction; DTC shipments resume decline after brief March recovery - Craft beer regional breweries see 55%+ in decline; consolidation accelerating **Major Company & Brand Moves:** - **Uncle Nearest:** Receivership expanded; federal investigation disclosed; court values brand at $50–125M vs. $208M in total debts; sale hearing June 11 - **Constellation Brands:** Sequential beer volume improvement ahead of Q1 earnings; TD Cowen trims near-term EPS to $3.30, maintains Buy - **AB InBev:** Outperforms broader beer market; Busch franchise growing +7.5%; Bud Light volumes still declining double digits - **Diageo:** Continued US spirits weakness; Casamigos -13.4%, Don Julio -21.7%; vodka volumes -8.6% - **RNDC:** 320+ additional layoffs in Washington and South Dakota; multi-state unwind continues at accelerating pace - **Boisset Collection:** Aligns nationally with Southern Glazer's across 26 markets - **Tilman Fertitta:** $17.6 billion acquisition of Caesars Entertainment signals confidence in on-premise entertainment **Category Highlights:** - **Spirits:** NABCA Control States volumes -1.2% in April; RTD brands Sun Cruiser, Surfside, Cutwater, BuzzBallz all surging - **Beer:** Total volumes -7.0% in L4W; craft beer production -5.1%; Rogue Ales files Chapter 7; New Belgium surpasses Molson Coors as largest non-BA craft family - **Wine:** DTC shipment value -2% in April; volume -13%; average bottle price hits record $65.55; Burgundy dominates US fine wine auctions at 56% of value - **Hard Cider:** +3.6% dollar growth; Angry Orchard holds 35.8% share; bottom 200 vendors collectively declining - **Energy Drinks:** Category +4.7%; Celsius/Alani Nu outperform; Red Bull market share eroding - **Non-Alc Beer:** +14% growth; Athletic Brewing +20.4% dollars; Go Brewing +116% production volume **Regulatory & Trade Watch:** - Illinois proposed tax rule could classify spirit-based RTDs at $8.55/gallon spirits rate; echoes previously unconstitutional approach; comment period closes June 8 - California AB 1585 passes Assembly 67-0; would require "American" wine to use 100% American-grown grapes - American whiskey exports -19% in 2025; Canada -57%, EU -35%, Japan -28% - SNAP soda restrictions expanding; CSD volumes -4.0% in restricted states vs. -1.7% elsewhere **Retail & Distribution:** - BJ's Wholesale Q1 sales +9.9% to $5.53B; 12 new clubs planned for 2026 - Trader Joe's adding 25 planned new stores; visit growth nearly 3x grocery average - Sotheby's American whiskey auction raises $2.5M; Old Rip Van Winkle 20-Year sets record at $162,500

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 22, 2026

**Key Themes:** - Broad US bev-alc contraction deepens: total off-premise sales down 6% in dollars, 7% in volume (4 weeks ending May 9) - Consumer trade-down behavior hits record levels; premium and luxury tiers under acute pressure - Spirits-based RTDs remain sole reliable growth engine but approaching saturation with 750+ brands - RNDC national unwind accelerates with Oregon WARN filings; distribution map being redrawn nationwide - Bourbon oversupply crisis: 16.1 million barrels in Kentucky, Jim Beam still shuttered through 2027 **Notable Company Moves:** - Brown-Forman cut 12% of workforce; Citi cuts price target to $26; fiscal Q4 report June 4 - Diageo leadership overhaul under new CEO Dave Lewis; four senior executives departing - Molson Coors doubles down on M&A: Monaco Cocktails and Fever-Tree integration; Keystone Light reinvestment - Boston Beer announces $25M share buyback tranche; Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea value packs gaining traction - Treasury Wine Estates under shareholder pressure; Goudet increases stake to 9%; investor day June 4 - Bale Breaker acquires Cloudburst Brewing in Pacific Northwest craft deal - Mitchell Companies expands A-B distribution footprint into Annapolis and DC markets **RTD Brand Performance (52-week Circana data):** - BuzzBallz (Sazerac): $569M, +65.6%, 20.8% share - BeatBox (A-B InBev): $312.5M, +30.5%, 11.4% share - Cutwater (A-B InBev): +72.3%, 11.0% share; overtook High Noon in 2-week share - Surfside (Stateside): $150.7M, +325%, 5.5% share - Sun Cruiser (Boston Beer): $114.7M, +433%, 4.2% share - High Noon (Gallo): declining 11-14% in recent periods **Wine Market:** - DtC shipment volume down 13% in April; average bottle price hits record $65.55 - Napa volume up ~1%, value up 4%+; Florida surges to #2 DtC destination - Sub-$5 wine tier down 19.1%; wine-based cocktails up 11.8% - California harvest smallest this century at 2.6M tons - Canada trade ban: US wine exports to Canada down 77% ($343M decline) **Regulatory & Legal:** - Supreme Court denies cert on Indiana and Arizona retail shipping cases; three-tier system reinforced - 6th Circuit Block v. Canepa ruling could open Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee to retail shipping - 5th Circuit rules federal home distilling ban unconstitutional (TX, LA, MS) - WHO alcohol labeling initiative blocked at Codex Alimentarius; 18-month reprieve - Hemp THC regulation: Lawful Hemp Protection Act proposed; November 2026 THC ban looms - Jack Daniel's "Bad Spaniels" trademark case returns to 9th Circuit **Consumer Insights:** - Deloitte: 3 in 4 alcohol executives call value-seeking structural, not cyclical - 75% of Memorial Day shoppers plan to buy beer; 45% say prices will impact spending - Below-premium beer gaining share; Gen Z indexes 2x for cider; Boomers lean wine - Restaurant traffic under pressure: 35% of consumers spending more than they earn **Retail & Adjacent:** - Walmart Q1 beats: +4.1% US comp sales, e-commerce +26% - Target Q1 beats: +5.6% comp sales vs. +2.4% consensus - Family Dollar closes 350+ stores post-PE acquisition - Monster Beverage closing price gap with Red Bull; 31% vs. 25.5% volume share - SF liquor license values collapsed from $230K peak to ~$100K **Distressed Assets & Bankruptcies:** - Spirits of the USA LLC (Legends brand): Chapter 11 filed May 15 - Alton Distillery: second Chapter 11 petition filed April 2026 - Distillery 291: staff cut from 30 to 12

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 15, 2026

**Key Themes This Week:** - **The Great Distribution Reshuffling:** RNDC exits nearly all U.S. territories; Reyes acquires 11 states, Breakthru takes Kentucky and Indiana, Martignetti absorbs 17 control states, Manhattan Beer takes New York wine/spirits rights, Columbia Distributing eyes Oregon/Washington/Alaska, Quality Brands picks up Nebraska and the Dakotas. Southern Glazer's and Johnson Brothers aggressively capture displaced relationships. Glazer's Inc. confirms family leadership continuity after Bennett Glazer's passing. - **Brown-Forman's Double Rejection:** Pernod Ricard merger-of-equals collapses over family governance disputes. Sazerac's $17B ($32/share) all-cash bid formally rejected. Brown-Forman faces third consecutive year of declining sales with no strategic partner. Sazerac pivots, takes equity stake in SIPMARGS RTD margarita brand. - **Off-Premise Sales Deterioration:** Total bev-alc dollar sales -5.4% L4W (NIQ); volume -5.8%. Wine leads declines at -8.3% dollars. Spirits -6.9%. Beer -4.7%. Prepared cocktails turn negative for first time (-0.1% dollars, -4.7% volume). IWSR full-year 2025: total U.S. volumes -5%. - **Beer Bright Spots Amid Broad Decline:** Busch Light Apple drives ABI outperformance (+17.4% dollars). Pacifico +19.6%. Athletic Brewing +19.6% L4W dollars. Happy Dad +48.8%. Non-alcoholic beer +12.3%. Below-premium growing. Craft improving to -2.6% YTD from -5.2% full-year 2025; hyper-local brands and IPAs lead. - **RTD Spirits Continue Surging:** Spirit-based RTDs +27.7% L4W. Sun Cruiser +143%, Cutwater +132%, Surfside +79%, BuzzBallz +23%. RTD margaritas hit $1.6B annual sales. Korean soju emerges with projected 16% CAGR through 2029. - **Wine's Structural Reset:** $115B in spending but volume -3% to 362M cases (down 12% since 2018). DTC shipments -15% volume, -6% value. 11,107 wineries — nearly 50% more than 2012. 58% report unsold stock problems. Duckhorn realigns national distribution. Wonderful Company expands JUSTIN and Lewis Cellars through SGWS. Wine-Searcher acquired by GLX/Platin Sàrl. - **Willamette Valley Vineyards** Q1 revenue +9.5% to $8.26M; distributor sales up but DTC declined. Net loss narrowed 22.5%. - **Regulatory Earthquake:** Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio wine shipping restrictions as unconstitutional; Supreme Court petition expected by August 4. California self-distribution law challenged (Blue Sky Vineyards case, June 2 hearing). CA AB 1585 advances (100% American grapes for "American" label). NY grocery wine sales bill in committee. NC ABC reform campaign active. CORCA passes House 348-60. Hemp THC crackdown regulations effective November 2026. - **Public Health Pressure:** Alcohol linked to 178,000 annual U.S. deaths, $240B+ economic cost. Third-leading preventable cause of cancer. Stanford study finds cancer-specific warning labels more effective. Alaska passes point-of-sale cancer warning law; Massachusetts bill introduced. - **Pricing & Macro:** CPI +3.8% YoY. Food-at-home +3.0%. Alcohol-at-home just +0.4%; wine-at-home deflationary at -0.8%. Beer-at-home +2.2%. Average beer case price up $0.52 YTD to $31.20. Costco April sales +13% YoY; U.S. comps +11.7%. - **Monster Beverage** Q1 blowout: FX-neutral sales +22.1% vs. +14.3% consensus. U.S. +15%. Ultra line +20%. EPS $0.58 beats by $0.05. Red Bull swings negative in latest reads; Celsius/Alani Nu maintain strong momentum. - **Citi Sector Views:** Positive on ABI, Carlsberg, BAT, Campari. Negative on Heineken, Pernod Ricard. - **2026 FIFA World Cup** (June 11–July 19): Expected mid-to-high single-digit alcohol sales lift. Key beneficiaries: Michelob Ultra, Modelo, Busch Light Apple, Cutwater, White Claw, Beatbox. - **RBC's 10 Forces Reshaping CPG:** Agentic commerce, K-shaped economy permanence, authenticity premium, longevity-focused functional beverages targeting 55+ consumers. - **In Memoriam:** Charles R. "Chuck" Smith, longtime Pernod Ricard SVP of Sales, Remy Amerique EVP, and E&J Gallo executive, passed April 30 at age approximately 85.

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 08, 2026

**Key Themes This Week:** - Legal/regulatory disruption accelerating: Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio shipping law; Supreme Court may take up retail shipping cases May 14 - Tariff relief: 10% Scotch whisky tariff eliminated following King Charles state visit - Beer showing cyclical recovery signs: ABI first volume growth since 2023; March shipments +2.5%; BPI above 50 for second consecutive month - Spirits and wine under sustained pressure: Diageo US spirits -15.4%; total wine volumes at decade-low - RTD/spirits-based cocktails as sole consistent growth driver across channels - Distribution landscape in upheaval: RNDC exits 25+ markets in 2026; Manhattan Beer absorbs NY Opici rights **Major Earnings:** - AB InBev: Q1 volume +0.8% (first growth since 2023); organic EBITDA +5.3%; US depletions +0.3% - Diageo: Q3 organic sales +0.3% (beat of -2.3% consensus); North America -9.4%; US spirits -15.4% - Campari: Q1 organic +2.9% vs +5.1% consensus; shares -11% - Boston Beer: YTD depletions -4%; guidance narrowed to -low to -mid single digits - Celsius Holdings: Revenue +138% YoY to $782.6M; adjusted EBITDA margin 25% - Ball Corporation: North American can supply sold through 2026, 90%+ through 2027 **Notable M&A/Transactions:** - Stone Brewing sold by Sapporo to Firestone Walker (Duvel USA) - LVMH exploring sales of Joseph Phelps, Eminente rum, Fenty Beauty stake - ABI Newark brewery sold for $360M to Goodman North America - RNDC: BreakThru acquiring KY/IN; QBD acquiring NE/SD/ND - Manhattan Beer acquiring RNDC New York distribution rights (Opici) - Golden Eagle Distributing acquires Rinella Company territory in Western Illinois - Veritas Vineyards acquired by Veritas Legacy Partners - Elixir Distillers appoints MISA Imports as US importer - Ball Corporation completes Benepack acquisition **Regulatory & Legal:** - Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio wine retailer shipping law as unconstitutional - SCOTUS to conference May 14 on AZ and IN retail shipping cases - North Carolina "Free Our Spirits" campaign; Senate Bill 938 filed - NYC Health Department launches citywide anti-alcohol cancer awareness campaign - Cannabis class action lawsuits filed against Cresco, Green Thumb, Verano, Curaleaf **Consumer/Retail Trends:** - Total Wine dedicating 28-32 feet per store to THC beverages - Hard lemonade hits $1.5B; spirits-based RTDs +144.6% within segment - Surfside now #2 hard lemonade brand family at 9.9% share - 27% of consumers switching to lower-priced retailers (up from 16%) - Flavored sparkling wine: 25% CAGR since 2019 - On-premise wine sales -26% since 2019; draft beer gaining share - Celsius CEO calls declining alcohol consumption "a major opportunity" **Industry Support:** - Wine Institute secures $6M USDA export funding - WSWA graduates 28 women leaders through Columbia Business School program - ABL designates May as Tavern Month; on-premise supports 2M+ jobs