Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 08, 2026

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 29, 2026

**Key Themes This Week:** - US beverage alcohol market broadly declining across all categories; consumer sentiment near historic lows - Spirit-based RTDs are the sole clear growth engine within spirits - Non-alcoholic beer continues rapid ascent, led by Athletic Brewing and Go Brewing - Wine faces a six-year structural contraction; DTC shipments resume decline after brief March recovery - Craft beer regional breweries see 55%+ in decline; consolidation accelerating **Major Company & Brand Moves:** - **Uncle Nearest:** Receivership expanded; federal investigation disclosed; court values brand at $50–125M vs. $208M in total debts; sale hearing June 11 - **Constellation Brands:** Sequential beer volume improvement ahead of Q1 earnings; TD Cowen trims near-term EPS to $3.30, maintains Buy - **AB InBev:** Outperforms broader beer market; Busch franchise growing +7.5%; Bud Light volumes still declining double digits - **Diageo:** Continued US spirits weakness; Casamigos -13.4%, Don Julio -21.7%; vodka volumes -8.6% - **RNDC:** 320+ additional layoffs in Washington and South Dakota; multi-state unwind continues at accelerating pace - **Boisset Collection:** Aligns nationally with Southern Glazer's across 26 markets - **Tilman Fertitta:** $17.6 billion acquisition of Caesars Entertainment signals confidence in on-premise entertainment **Category Highlights:** - **Spirits:** NABCA Control States volumes -1.2% in April; RTD brands Sun Cruiser, Surfside, Cutwater, BuzzBallz all surging - **Beer:** Total volumes -7.0% in L4W; craft beer production -5.1%; Rogue Ales files Chapter 7; New Belgium surpasses Molson Coors as largest non-BA craft family - **Wine:** DTC shipment value -2% in April; volume -13%; average bottle price hits record $65.55; Burgundy dominates US fine wine auctions at 56% of value - **Hard Cider:** +3.6% dollar growth; Angry Orchard holds 35.8% share; bottom 200 vendors collectively declining - **Energy Drinks:** Category +4.7%; Celsius/Alani Nu outperform; Red Bull market share eroding - **Non-Alc Beer:** +14% growth; Athletic Brewing +20.4% dollars; Go Brewing +116% production volume **Regulatory & Trade Watch:** - Illinois proposed tax rule could classify spirit-based RTDs at $8.55/gallon spirits rate; echoes previously unconstitutional approach; comment period closes June 8 - California AB 1585 passes Assembly 67-0; would require "American" wine to use 100% American-grown grapes - American whiskey exports -19% in 2025; Canada -57%, EU -35%, Japan -28% - SNAP soda restrictions expanding; CSD volumes -4.0% in restricted states vs. -1.7% elsewhere **Retail & Distribution:** - BJ's Wholesale Q1 sales +9.9% to $5.53B; 12 new clubs planned for 2026 - Trader Joe's adding 25 planned new stores; visit growth nearly 3x grocery average - Sotheby's American whiskey auction raises $2.5M; Old Rip Van Winkle 20-Year sets record at $162,500

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 22, 2026

**Key Themes:** - Broad US bev-alc contraction deepens: total off-premise sales down 6% in dollars, 7% in volume (4 weeks ending May 9) - Consumer trade-down behavior hits record levels; premium and luxury tiers under acute pressure - Spirits-based RTDs remain sole reliable growth engine but approaching saturation with 750+ brands - RNDC national unwind accelerates with Oregon WARN filings; distribution map being redrawn nationwide - Bourbon oversupply crisis: 16.1 million barrels in Kentucky, Jim Beam still shuttered through 2027 **Notable Company Moves:** - Brown-Forman cut 12% of workforce; Citi cuts price target to $26; fiscal Q4 report June 4 - Diageo leadership overhaul under new CEO Dave Lewis; four senior executives departing - Molson Coors doubles down on M&A: Monaco Cocktails and Fever-Tree integration; Keystone Light reinvestment - Boston Beer announces $25M share buyback tranche; Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea value packs gaining traction - Treasury Wine Estates under shareholder pressure; Goudet increases stake to 9%; investor day June 4 - Bale Breaker acquires Cloudburst Brewing in Pacific Northwest craft deal - Mitchell Companies expands A-B distribution footprint into Annapolis and DC markets **RTD Brand Performance (52-week Circana data):** - BuzzBallz (Sazerac): $569M, +65.6%, 20.8% share - BeatBox (A-B InBev): $312.5M, +30.5%, 11.4% share - Cutwater (A-B InBev): +72.3%, 11.0% share; overtook High Noon in 2-week share - Surfside (Stateside): $150.7M, +325%, 5.5% share - Sun Cruiser (Boston Beer): $114.7M, +433%, 4.2% share - High Noon (Gallo): declining 11-14% in recent periods **Wine Market:** - DtC shipment volume down 13% in April; average bottle price hits record $65.55 - Napa volume up ~1%, value up 4%+; Florida surges to #2 DtC destination - Sub-$5 wine tier down 19.1%; wine-based cocktails up 11.8% - California harvest smallest this century at 2.6M tons - Canada trade ban: US wine exports to Canada down 77% ($343M decline) **Regulatory & Legal:** - Supreme Court denies cert on Indiana and Arizona retail shipping cases; three-tier system reinforced - 6th Circuit Block v. Canepa ruling could open Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee to retail shipping - 5th Circuit rules federal home distilling ban unconstitutional (TX, LA, MS) - WHO alcohol labeling initiative blocked at Codex Alimentarius; 18-month reprieve - Hemp THC regulation: Lawful Hemp Protection Act proposed; November 2026 THC ban looms - Jack Daniel's "Bad Spaniels" trademark case returns to 9th Circuit **Consumer Insights:** - Deloitte: 3 in 4 alcohol executives call value-seeking structural, not cyclical - 75% of Memorial Day shoppers plan to buy beer; 45% say prices will impact spending - Below-premium beer gaining share; Gen Z indexes 2x for cider; Boomers lean wine - Restaurant traffic under pressure: 35% of consumers spending more than they earn **Retail & Adjacent:** - Walmart Q1 beats: +4.1% US comp sales, e-commerce +26% - Target Q1 beats: +5.6% comp sales vs. +2.4% consensus - Family Dollar closes 350+ stores post-PE acquisition - Monster Beverage closing price gap with Red Bull; 31% vs. 25.5% volume share - SF liquor license values collapsed from $230K peak to ~$100K **Distressed Assets & Bankruptcies:** - Spirits of the USA LLC (Legends brand): Chapter 11 filed May 15 - Alton Distillery: second Chapter 11 petition filed April 2026 - Distillery 291: staff cut from 30 to 12

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 15, 2026

**Key Themes This Week:** - **The Great Distribution Reshuffling:** RNDC exits nearly all U.S. territories; Reyes acquires 11 states, Breakthru takes Kentucky and Indiana, Martignetti absorbs 17 control states, Manhattan Beer takes New York wine/spirits rights, Columbia Distributing eyes Oregon/Washington/Alaska, Quality Brands picks up Nebraska and the Dakotas. Southern Glazer's and Johnson Brothers aggressively capture displaced relationships. Glazer's Inc. confirms family leadership continuity after Bennett Glazer's passing. - **Brown-Forman's Double Rejection:** Pernod Ricard merger-of-equals collapses over family governance disputes. Sazerac's $17B ($32/share) all-cash bid formally rejected. Brown-Forman faces third consecutive year of declining sales with no strategic partner. Sazerac pivots, takes equity stake in SIPMARGS RTD margarita brand. - **Off-Premise Sales Deterioration:** Total bev-alc dollar sales -5.4% L4W (NIQ); volume -5.8%. Wine leads declines at -8.3% dollars. Spirits -6.9%. Beer -4.7%. Prepared cocktails turn negative for first time (-0.1% dollars, -4.7% volume). IWSR full-year 2025: total U.S. volumes -5%. - **Beer Bright Spots Amid Broad Decline:** Busch Light Apple drives ABI outperformance (+17.4% dollars). Pacifico +19.6%. Athletic Brewing +19.6% L4W dollars. Happy Dad +48.8%. Non-alcoholic beer +12.3%. Below-premium growing. Craft improving to -2.6% YTD from -5.2% full-year 2025; hyper-local brands and IPAs lead. - **RTD Spirits Continue Surging:** Spirit-based RTDs +27.7% L4W. Sun Cruiser +143%, Cutwater +132%, Surfside +79%, BuzzBallz +23%. RTD margaritas hit $1.6B annual sales. Korean soju emerges with projected 16% CAGR through 2029. - **Wine's Structural Reset:** $115B in spending but volume -3% to 362M cases (down 12% since 2018). DTC shipments -15% volume, -6% value. 11,107 wineries — nearly 50% more than 2012. 58% report unsold stock problems. Duckhorn realigns national distribution. Wonderful Company expands JUSTIN and Lewis Cellars through SGWS. Wine-Searcher acquired by GLX/Platin Sàrl. - **Willamette Valley Vineyards** Q1 revenue +9.5% to $8.26M; distributor sales up but DTC declined. Net loss narrowed 22.5%. - **Regulatory Earthquake:** Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio wine shipping restrictions as unconstitutional; Supreme Court petition expected by August 4. California self-distribution law challenged (Blue Sky Vineyards case, June 2 hearing). CA AB 1585 advances (100% American grapes for "American" label). NY grocery wine sales bill in committee. NC ABC reform campaign active. CORCA passes House 348-60. Hemp THC crackdown regulations effective November 2026. - **Public Health Pressure:** Alcohol linked to 178,000 annual U.S. deaths, $240B+ economic cost. Third-leading preventable cause of cancer. Stanford study finds cancer-specific warning labels more effective. Alaska passes point-of-sale cancer warning law; Massachusetts bill introduced. - **Pricing & Macro:** CPI +3.8% YoY. Food-at-home +3.0%. Alcohol-at-home just +0.4%; wine-at-home deflationary at -0.8%. Beer-at-home +2.2%. Average beer case price up $0.52 YTD to $31.20. Costco April sales +13% YoY; U.S. comps +11.7%. - **Monster Beverage** Q1 blowout: FX-neutral sales +22.1% vs. +14.3% consensus. U.S. +15%. Ultra line +20%. EPS $0.58 beats by $0.05. Red Bull swings negative in latest reads; Celsius/Alani Nu maintain strong momentum. - **Citi Sector Views:** Positive on ABI, Carlsberg, BAT, Campari. Negative on Heineken, Pernod Ricard. - **2026 FIFA World Cup** (June 11–July 19): Expected mid-to-high single-digit alcohol sales lift. Key beneficiaries: Michelob Ultra, Modelo, Busch Light Apple, Cutwater, White Claw, Beatbox. - **RBC's 10 Forces Reshaping CPG:** Agentic commerce, K-shaped economy permanence, authenticity premium, longevity-focused functional beverages targeting 55+ consumers. - **In Memoriam:** Charles R. "Chuck" Smith, longtime Pernod Ricard SVP of Sales, Remy Amerique EVP, and E&J Gallo executive, passed April 30 at age approximately 85.

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 08, 2026

**Key Themes This Week:** - Legal/regulatory disruption accelerating: Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio shipping law; Supreme Court may take up retail shipping cases May 14 - Tariff relief: 10% Scotch whisky tariff eliminated following King Charles state visit - Beer showing cyclical recovery signs: ABI first volume growth since 2023; March shipments +2.5%; BPI above 50 for second consecutive month - Spirits and wine under sustained pressure: Diageo US spirits -15.4%; total wine volumes at decade-low - RTD/spirits-based cocktails as sole consistent growth driver across channels - Distribution landscape in upheaval: RNDC exits 25+ markets in 2026; Manhattan Beer absorbs NY Opici rights **Major Earnings:** - AB InBev: Q1 volume +0.8% (first growth since 2023); organic EBITDA +5.3%; US depletions +0.3% - Diageo: Q3 organic sales +0.3% (beat of -2.3% consensus); North America -9.4%; US spirits -15.4% - Campari: Q1 organic +2.9% vs +5.1% consensus; shares -11% - Boston Beer: YTD depletions -4%; guidance narrowed to -low to -mid single digits - Celsius Holdings: Revenue +138% YoY to $782.6M; adjusted EBITDA margin 25% - Ball Corporation: North American can supply sold through 2026, 90%+ through 2027 **Notable M&A/Transactions:** - Stone Brewing sold by Sapporo to Firestone Walker (Duvel USA) - LVMH exploring sales of Joseph Phelps, Eminente rum, Fenty Beauty stake - ABI Newark brewery sold for $360M to Goodman North America - RNDC: BreakThru acquiring KY/IN; QBD acquiring NE/SD/ND - Manhattan Beer acquiring RNDC New York distribution rights (Opici) - Golden Eagle Distributing acquires Rinella Company territory in Western Illinois - Veritas Vineyards acquired by Veritas Legacy Partners - Elixir Distillers appoints MISA Imports as US importer - Ball Corporation completes Benepack acquisition **Regulatory & Legal:** - Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio wine retailer shipping law as unconstitutional - SCOTUS to conference May 14 on AZ and IN retail shipping cases - North Carolina "Free Our Spirits" campaign; Senate Bill 938 filed - NYC Health Department launches citywide anti-alcohol cancer awareness campaign - Cannabis class action lawsuits filed against Cresco, Green Thumb, Verano, Curaleaf **Consumer/Retail Trends:** - Total Wine dedicating 28-32 feet per store to THC beverages - Hard lemonade hits $1.5B; spirits-based RTDs +144.6% within segment - Surfside now #2 hard lemonade brand family at 9.9% share - 27% of consumers switching to lower-priced retailers (up from 16%) - Flavored sparkling wine: 25% CAGR since 2019 - On-premise wine sales -26% since 2019; draft beer gaining share - Celsius CEO calls declining alcohol consumption "a major opportunity" **Industry Support:** - Wine Institute secures $6M USDA export funding - WSWA graduates 28 women leaders through Columbia Business School program - ABL designates May as Tavern Month; on-premise supports 2M+ jobs

Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 01, 2026

**Week of April 27 – May 1, 2026** ### Distribution Upheaval - **RNDC dissolution accelerates**: Columbia Distributing acquires Oregon/Washington/Alaska; Martignetti takes 13 control states + brokerage in 4 more; Reyes Beverage Group closing on 11 states by late May; Manhattan Beer acquires RNDC-Opici NY distribution rights; Great Plains buyer TBD; Illinois JV in flux - **2,774 WARN Act notices** issued across six states; Strauss Borrelli launches investigation in South Carolina - **Brown-Forman** completes historic 18 control-state distribution realignment — Johnson Brothers, Southern Glazer's, Superior Beverage, Great Lakes Wine & Spirits named - **Southern Glazer's** adds Edrington's full portfolio (including The Macallan) in New York, effective June 1 - **Johnson Brothers** expands J. Lohr partnership across Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota - **Southern Crown Partners** to acquire Milestone Beverage in South Carolina - **BMO survey**: ~25% of US wineries lost a primary distributor in 2025; 36% in Napa County; ~50% currently seeking new partners ### M&A & Corporate Strategy - **Pernod Ricard–Brown-Forman merger collapses** over share capital imbalance (50% Brown family vs. 14% Ricard family) - **Sazerac** reported $15B bid for Brown-Forman ($32/share); separately signs exclusive US distribution deal with **818 Tequila** (Kendall Jenner) - **Diageo CEO Dave Lewis** restructuring regional management; mid-May notifications expected; US spirits sales down 10.4% in latest Nielsen period; selling majority stake in East African Breweries to Asahi for $2.3B - **The Wine Group** acquires **Phony Negroni** non-alc brand from St. Agrestis - **Fat Brands** completes Ch. 11 auction: Hot Dog on a Stick ($8M to Amazing Brands), Elevation Burger ($2.5M to Kuwait franchisee group); 16 remaining brands via credit bid ### Earnings Highlights - **Molson Coors**: Q1 profit $151.3M ($0.80/share), revenue $2.35B — beat on top and bottom line; volumes -2.9%; Fever-Tree and Topo Chico outperform; Q2 volumes guided -6% to -9% - **Boston Beer**: Net loss of $145.3M (-$13.88/share) on Ardagh litigation charge; adj. EPS $1.64 (missed $1.96 consensus); revenue $433.9M; shipments -6.9%; full-year guidance lowered - **Becle (Jose Cuervo)**: Net profit down 67%; North America volumes -24%; US tequila imports down 32% in 2025 - **MGP Ingredients**: Distilling Solutions revenue -40%; brown goods -56%; Limestone Branch and Lux Row distilleries paused; Penelope Bourbon +10% - **Coca-Cola**: Organic sales +10% (beat 6.5% consensus); adj. EPS $0.86; full-year guidance raised to +8-9% ### Market Data & Scanner Trends - **Beer BPI** surges to 59 — first expansionary reading in 21 months; all segments improve YoY - **Beer scanner volumes** -1.4% L4W; -5.0% L2W (Easter distortion); ABI and Molson Coors outperform broader market - **Total alcohol** dollar sales $8.1B (L4W ending 4/18), down 2.9% YoY; spirits -6.0%; wine -4.9%; beer -2.0% - **Prepared cocktails** only growth category: dollar sales +4.4%; RTDs +28.8% per Jefferies tracker - **Energy drinks** +7.5% L2W; Alani Nu (Celsius) +51.7%; Ghost +22%; Monster Ultra +11.2% - **NABCA control state spirits** volume +1.2% MoM in March but dollar volume -1.6%; Scotch +11.4% ### Wine Sector - **California acreage** down to 540K acres (-12% in two years); 21K+ acres removed in 12 months - **Scanner data**: wine dollars -4.9%, volume -6.1% (L4W); Josh +4.7%, LaMarca +12.8%; Barefoot -6.1% - **DtC**: March shipment value +5% YoY to $462M (first gain in 12+ months); avg. bottle price record $66.96; Napa +14% in value - **Non-alc wine** only growth segment: +15.8% dollars, +11% volume - **Fraud wave**: James Wellesley sentenced (10 years, $100M scheme); Patrick Briones guilty plea; Jeffry Hill sentenced - SVB: wineries with "very weak" financial health nearly tripled since 2022 ### Trade & Tariffs - **Trump removes all whisky tariffs** (10% on Scotch/Irish whiskey + pending 25% single malt tariff) following UK state visit - SWA estimated £4M/week in lost exports; American Whiskey Association hails "meaningful win" - **Heineken** files suit against US government over tariff overpayment - Strait of Hormuz disruption: crude at $119/bbl; shipping rerouted around Cape of Good Hope; urea costs +50% ### Regulatory & Policy - **California AB 1585**: would require 100% US-grown grapes for "American" wine labels (currently 75% minimum); advances to Appropriations Committee; opposed by Wine Institute and Treasury Wine Estates (Penfolds) - **NY wine-in-grocery debate**: Metropolitan Package Store Association + UFCW oppose; 50K+ jobs cited at risk - **SNAP cuts**: payments -8% since November; 11% of US food/bev sales affected; California, NY, Illinois waiver expirations ahead - **CT dram shop case**: $375K settlement for Hartley & Parker distributor liability case - **WA AG sues** Albertsons/Safeway over $20M in deceptive BOGO pricing - **WHO-backed** "3x35" initiative targeting 50% price increase on alcohol, tobacco, sugary drinks by 2035 - **First Citizens Bank** retiring SVB name in Q4 2026; wine lending division continues ### Consumer & On-Premise - **Gallup**: US adult alcohol consumption at 54% — lowest in 90 years - **On-premise** value velocity +5% YoY; ticket counts +7%; avg. check -2% (belt-tightening) - **Amazon** now #2 US grocer; perishables sales +40x YoY; Prime Day moving to June - **FIFA World Cup** (June 11–July 19): 48 teams, 104 matches, 75% on US soil; ~1B pint global uplift; ABI primary beneficiary (+0.52% volume) - **Michigan spirits** sales down to $1.78B from $1.895B; cannabis substitution cited; Red Wagon Troy purchases -25.4% - **Henkell Freixenet** non-alc products +18% in 2025; assumes Korbel global distribution - **Gen Z** alcohol participation jumps 46% ? 70% in two years - 42% of on-premise consumers likely to try mini cocktails ### Key Takeaway The US beverage alcohol industry is experiencing a once-in-a-generation restructuring across distribution, demand, and consumer behavior. RNDC's collapse is redrawing wholesale geography. Prepared cocktails and RTDs are the only organic growth engine. Wine faces a structural correction. Spirits are contracting outside of value-oriented and RTD segments. Beer has the most constructive near-term setup heading into the FIFA World Cup. And the consumer — squeezed by inflation, drawn to non-alc alternatives and cannabis, and culturally embracing moderation — is fundamentally changing the demand equation for every player in this space.