Dark Money’s Death Knell for Democracy

Sunsets never seemed so…chaotic.

Virginia is two weeks from its first-ever government shutdown, and one of the last fights standing is a data center tax break worth roughly $1.6 billion a year. This episode breaks down the Virginia data center sales tax exemption, the June 30 budget deadline, and the astroturf text-message campaign funded by the Northern Virginia Technology Council and the Virginia Chamber of Commerce urging voters to "stop the digital tax." We cover what JLARC actually found about data center jobs and Virginia power bills, why Dominion Energy rate increases and PJM capacity costs matter for every ratepayer, and the intra-Democratic standoff between Senator Louise Lucas, Governor Abigail Spanberger, and Speaker Don Scott. Plus: how a Republican-controlled Arizona legislature froze new data center giveaways this year, and why a Democratic trifecta in Virginia hasn't. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.bytheballot.com [https://www.bytheballot.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

The Autopsy That Couldn’t Name the Body

TThe DNC just released its 192-page autopsy of the 2024 election. Mentions of Gaza: zero. Mentions of Biden's age: zero. Substantive discussion of affordability: one parenthetical. This episode is about why. Virginia Democratic strategist Matt Royer breaks down the autopsy that couldn't name the body — the Future Forward super PAC that raised nearly a billion dollars and spent it on a theory instead of a race, the decade-long Democratic fantasy of the centrist Republican who never showed up, the "heterodoxy" pitch that only ever points right, and the 18 percent congressional approval rating the party earned from its own base. From the Liz Cheney 93-percent voting record to the Cory Booker 25-hour floor speech, this is a full diagnosis of the save-face instinct that has cost Democrats their credibility, their fundraising, and the trust of the voters they already had. What you'll hear in this episode: Why Future Forward sat on $1 billion while Trump defined the race The Lincoln Project fantasy and why the centrist Republican does not exist "Heterodoxy" as the DC consultant permission slip that always points right Why congressional Democrats hit a record-low 18% approval — and lost 16 points with their own base in 8 weeks The fundraising rut nobody wants to name: belief, not strategy Why replacing Ken Martin is the PR move, not the fix The material-gains agenda Democrats refuse to lead with: minimum wage, repeal right-to-work, expand Medicaid The way back: admit when we were wrong, stop chasing people who were never coming, start trying to win Read the full essay at bytheballot.com [http://bytheballot.com] Subscribe to By the Ballot for analysis, receipts, and the headlines they don't want printed. Follow Matt: X: @royermattw Threads: @royermattw Bluesky: @mattroyer.bsky.social [http://mattroyer.bsky.social] Substack: bytheballot.com [http://bytheballot.com] #Democrats #DNC #2024Election #Politics #Progressive #ByTheBallot #FutureForward #KenMartin #AffordabilityCrisis #VirginiaPolitics #PoliticalAnalysis #DemocraticParty This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.bytheballot.com [https://www.bytheballot.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Where Have All the Good Guys Gone?

Virginia redistricting, the Supreme Court of Virginia ruling, and the Hakeem Jeffries court-packing plan that nobody in Richmond asked for. On this episode of By the Ballot, Matt Royer breaks down the 4-3 SCOVA decision that overturned Virginia's redistricting amendment, the Quinn Yeargain proposal in The Downballot to lower the judicial retirement age to 54, and why House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called Virginia members of Congress on Monday morning without briefing Governor Abigail Spanberger, Speaker of the House Don Scott, or Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell. Topics covered: Virginia redistricting 2026, SCOVA ruling, Justice Stephen McCullough, Virginia Democrats, Hakeem Jeffries, Abigail Spanberger, Don Scott, Scott Surovell, Suhas Subramanyam, Quinn Yeargain, The Downballot, California redistricting, Texas redistricting, Missouri redistricting, Democratic trifecta states, court packing, constitutional amendment, intervening election, fair maps, 2026 midterms. Matt Royer is a Virginia Democratic digital strategist and the writer of By the Ballot. Read the full piece at bytheballot.com [http://bytheballot.com]. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.bytheballot.com [https://www.bytheballot.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

What’s Next: Is It Ever Really, Truly Over?

Virginia approved midterm redistricting on April 21, 2026, taking the Congressional delegation from 6-5 Republican to 10-1 Democratic. Host Matt Royer breaks down what the 3-point margin means for the 2026 midterms, traces the $29 million dark-money operation funded by Peter Thiel that nearly defeated the amendment, and argues that the 12-point gap between Abigail Spanberger's November win and the April referendum reveals a Democratic trust problem heading into next year's House races. Topics covered: Virginia redistricting amendment results, Peter Thiel and Per Aspera Policy Inc., Justice for Democracy PAC, Virginians for Fair Maps, Eric Cantor, Jason Miyares, Glenn Youngkin, Scott Presler in Indiana and Utah, the 2026 midterm map, Medicare for All, the PRO Act, ICE enforcement, the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, and what Democratic delivery actually looks like. By the Ballot is hosted by Matt Royer, a Democratic digital strategist based in Virginia. Subscribe at bytheballot.com [http://bytheballot.com]. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.bytheballot.com [https://www.bytheballot.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

DoubleSpeak to DoubleThink: The GOP’s Ever-Evolving Belief on Redistricting.

DoubleSpeak to DoubleThink: How the GOP Talks Out of Both Sides on Redistricting Virginia has a special election on April 21st that could determine control of the House of Representatives — and the Republican Party doesn't want you paying attention to it. In this episode, we break down the GOP's ever-evolving position on redistricting: how Donald Trump pressured Texas to gerrymander five new Republican seats, how Scott Presler traveled to Utah to dismantle a voter-approved independent redistricting commission and threatened Indiana Republicans who wouldn't gerrymander aggressively enough — and then showed up in Virginia calling Democratic redistricting an "unconstitutional power grab." We trace the $11.5 million PAC, the Peter Thiel dark money behind the anti-redistricting mailers misusing Barack Obama's image, and why the 2020 Virginia redistricting commission was flawed from the start. We also explain why Virginia's April 21st ballot referendum is not a local civics exercise — it's one piece of the most consequential redistricting fight since REDMAP, and the side that shows up wins the next four years of congressional maps. Topics covered: Virginia redistricting referendum 2026 — Scott Presler hypocrisy — Republican gerrymandering — Justice for Democracy PAC — Peter Thiel dark money — Barack Obama redistricting mailer — Texas gerrymandering 2025 — California Proposition 50 — Virginia Question 1 2020 — REDMAP — Mike Johnson House majority — Adam Kincaid National Republican Redistricting Trust — Louise Lucas — Abigail Spanberger — Vote Yes April 21st This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.bytheballot.com [https://www.bytheballot.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]