Dialogues, Hamburg

Review of Open AI's fund raising

In 2025, open AI gets into frenzy of fundraising and deal making, which led us to ponder how fiscally sustainable open AI is? * Is it a growth story? * Is it a cost advantage firm? * Or is open AI, a capital discipline company? And our answer, using free cash flow model, was it's all the three. So we built our model and ran a Monte Carlo simulation. Without Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), we found that there was unlikely chances to have a positive cash flow. But with SPV, we found there is a 6% likelihood that they will have a positive cash flow for 10,000 scenarios. Now, while building our model, we took data available from public domain and multiple new sources(The Finanical Times). One of the major sources for our information is The Information.