Economics Explored

Debt and Deficits: Have We Lost Discipline? w/ Sinclair Davidson & John Humphreys

Debt and deficits used to be political dealbreakers. So why don’t they seem to matter anymore? In this episode, Gene Tunny explores the concept of fiscal illusion with John Humphreys and Professor Sinclair Davidson. They examine whether Australia is “sleepwalking” into a more precarious fiscal position, and what could happen if a crisis hits. A thought-provoking discussion on debt, accountability, and economic literacy. Sinclair Davidson is Professor of Institutional Economics in the School of Economics, Finance and Marketing at RMIT University. John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance.  Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com [contact@economicsexplored.com].  TAKEAWAYS 1. Governments use various budget measures that can obscure the true fiscal position (“fiscal illusion”). 2. Off-budget spending and government “investments” may not appear in key budget figures, even when they worsen debt. 3. Growth in national debt may be the clearest indicator of underlying fiscal reality. 4. Public attitudes toward debt and deficits have softened, reducing political pressure for fiscal discipline. 5. Debt may not be an immediate crisis, but it represents a slow-burning risk that could become serious over time.  TIMESTAMPS * Public Debt and Its Implications (0:00) * Off-Budget Spending and Fiscal Risks (4:17) * Complexities of Budget Reporting (6:29) * State Debt and Federalism (12:17) * NDIS and Government Spending (42:50) * Economic Literacy and Public Perception (54:40) * Alternative Solutions and Policy Reforms (56:46) LINKS RELEVANT TO THE CONVERSATION Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 23 April, “New Taxes and Rising Debt”: https://www.youtube.com/live/6sc7wU8vKpo?si=QG4tmu8ntyb6dspL [https://www.youtube.com/live/6sc7wU8vKpo?si=QG4tmu8ntyb6dspL] LUMO COFFEE PROMOTION 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED [https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED] Promo code: 10EXPLORED

Have We Gone Too Far on Free Trade?

Free trade has long been a cornerstone of economic thinking, but is it still fit for purpose in a more dangerous and uncertain world? Gene Tunny is joined by Dan Ryan and John Humphreys to debate tariffs, industrial policy, and economic resilience. They explore whether Australia has gone too far in opening its economy, the risks of fragile global supply chains, and the perceived trade-offs between efficiency and national security.  Dan Ryan is Executive Director of the National Conservative Institute of Australia, and John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance.  Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com [contact@economicsexplored.com].  TAKEAWAYS 1. Free trade generally boosts living standards but may also introduce vulnerabilities in a geopolitically unstable world. 2. Tariffs can protect domestic industries, but they also raise prices and risk economic inefficiency. 3. Supply chain resilience is emerging as a key policy concern, alongside cost efficiency. 4. Deindustrialisation is driven not just by trade, but also by automation and energy costs. 5. There may be a middle ground: limited, targeted trade restrictions for national security rather than broad protectionism. TIMESTAMPS * 00:00 – Introduction: Free trade under pressure * 02:45 – Why Australia lost refining capacity * 03:40 – Supply chains and geopolitical risk * 05:40 – What does “cheapest” really mean? * 07:30 – Do tariffs encourage local production? * 10:35 – Automation vs trade in deindustrialisation * 13:05 – Energy costs and competitiveness * 15:15 – Is reindustrialisation realistic? * 18:15 – What tariffs would actually look like * 20:30 – Dan’s case for a 10% tariff baseline * 22:15 – Can tariffs replace income taxes? * 25:10 – Historical tariffs in Australia * 27:30 – Are tariffs just another tax? * 28:25 – Would tariffs really bring jobs back? * 30:50 – Technology vs trade: what matters more? * 33:15 – Tariffs, revenue, and economic trade-offs * 36:00 – Final reflections: trade vs national security LINKS RELEVANT TO THE CONVERSATION Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 16 April: https://www.youtube.com/live/fyukScFysDs?si=FwDjygolodDUQVRz [https://www.youtube.com/live/fyukScFysDs?si=FwDjygolodDUQVRz] LUMO COFFEE PROMOTION 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED [https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED] Promo code: 10EXPLORED

Housing Crisis: Supply, Demand, or Both? w/ John Humphreys and Tom Switzer

What happens when geopolitical tensions collide with domestic economic pressures? In this episode, Gene Tunny is joined by John Humphreys and Tom Switzer to unpack the economic fallout from escalating tensions with Iran. The conversation then turns to Australia’s housing affordability crisis—examining whether government policies, population growth, or supply constraints are to blame. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com [contact@economicsexplored.com].  TAKEAWAYS 1. Housing affordability remains a major challenge in many advanced economies, with strong demand outpacing limited supply. 2. Policies like Australia's 5% deposit scheme can boost prices by increasing demand in an already constrained market. 3. Both supply and demand matter—increasing construction and managing population growth are key levers. 4. International examples (such as Canada) suggest that policy changes can influence housing outcomes. TIMESTAMPS * Iran Nuclear Tensions and Market Reactions (0:00) * Impact of the 5% Deposit Scheme on Housing Affordability (6:02) * Supply and Demand Dynamics in Housing (7:51) * Proposed Solutions and Policy Reforms (14:50) * Long-term Factors Contributing to Housing Affordability (18:55) * Final Thoughts and Call to Action (24:08) LINKS RELEVANT TO THE CONVERSATION Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 9 April: https://www.youtube.com/live/hoRKqJhBhUQ?si=_1uHKUG6zCO7vBP1 [https://www.youtube.com/live/hoRKqJhBhUQ?si=_1uHKUG6zCO7vBP1] Tom Switzer’s show, Switzerland: https://www.youtube.com/@TomSwitzerMedia [https://www.youtube.com/@TomSwitzerMedia] LUMO COFFEE PROMOTION 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED [https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED] Promo code: 10EXPLORED

Fuel, Fertiliser, and Fear Down Under - ep314

Are fears of fuel shortages in Australia overblown—or are we underestimating the risks? Gene Tunny is joined by Dr John Humphreys and farmer Peter Rothwell to explore how rising diesel prices, fertiliser shortages, and supply chain stress could ripple through the economy. From supermarket prices to farm viability, this episode breaks down how a global energy shock could hit households and businesses—and whether markets can cope. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com [contact@economicsexplored.com].  ABOUT THE GUESTS Dr John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance and an experienced economist with a background spanning academia, government, consulting and think tanks, including roles at the Australian Treasury, the Centre for International Economics and the Centre for Independent Studies. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Queensland, where he has lectured in advanced microeconomics, and has also taught in Cambodia, where he founded an education charity and research institute. John is the founder of the Australian Libertarian Society and the Liberal Democrats (Libertarian Party), and has published widely on tax, welfare, public finance and international trade. He was awarded a knighthood in the Cambodian Royal Order of Moniseraphon for his contributions to education. Peter Rothwell is a farmer and former Liberal Democrats candidate based in regional New South Wales. He has contested the federal seat of Parkes, covering much of western NSW including Dubbo and surrounding areas. Peter describes himself as having grown up on the land and as an “old school Liberal,” entering politics out of concern about national economic challenges including high government debt, inflation and rising interest rates. TAKEAWAYS 1. Markets help—but aren’t perfect: Prices usually allocate scarce fuel efficiently, but panic buying and logistics can still create short-term shortages. 2. Diesel is critical infrastructure: It powers transport, farming, mining, and supply chains—making it far more economically important than petrol. 3. Energy shocks are stagflationary: Higher fuel prices raise costs and reduce economic activity at the same time. 4. Agriculture is highly exposed: Fertiliser shortages and higher diesel costs could reduce yields and farm profitability. 5. Policy trade-offs are tough: Governments face difficult choices on fuel taxes, spending, and how to respond to a supply-side shock. TIMESTAMPS * 0:00 – Intro: fuel shock fears and “Mad Max” scenarios * 2:40 – Oil prices surge and diesel costs spike * 9:00 – Are we underestimating the risks? * 12:50 – Fertiliser shortages and farming realities * 25:00 – Food supply vs distribution challenges * 29:00 – Why diesel is the critical constraint * 41:50 – Fuel excise debate and policy responses * 52:50 – Final reflections and listener call-out   LINKS RELEVANT TO THE CONVERSATION ATA livestream “Real situation in rural Australia”: https://www.youtube.com/live/MczcHEBXXIY?si=cLVJ3EWjserUeXNU [https://www.youtube.com/live/MczcHEBXXIY?si=cLVJ3EWjserUeXNU] Charts that Gene talks about: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1siZwkNV7QLF1PXdeg6mZJt_uomZuRpZN/view?usp=sharing [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1siZwkNV7QLF1PXdeg6mZJt_uomZuRpZN/view?usp=sharing] LUMO COFFEE PROMOTION 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED [https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED] Promo code: 10EXPLORED

AI, Jobs, and the Value of Ideas w/ Benjamin Shiller, Brandeis University

AI can write essays, generate code, and assist with research, but does that mean it will replace human workers? Economist Benjamin Shiller, author of AI Economics, joins show host Gene to discuss how AI may instead make human creativity and ideas even more valuable. In this conversation with Gene Tunny, they explore AI’s potential impact on jobs, productivity growth, education, and inequality, as well as the risks the technology could pose. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com [contact@economicsexplored.com].  ABOUT THIS EPISODE’S GUEST: BENJAMIN SHILLER Benjamin Shiller is an Associate Professor of Economics at Brandeis University. His research on personalized pricing, ad-blocking, and technological change has been published in leading journals and covered in The Atlantic, The Economist, Forbes, Fortune, The Guardian, and The Washington Post. TAKEAWAYS 1. AI may increase the value of human ideas. Benjamin Shiller argues that while AI is excellent at turning ideas into polished text or code, it still struggles to generate genuinely original ideas. That means creativity, judgment, and insight may become more valuable in the AI age. 2. Workers who know how to use AI will have an advantage. Rather than fully replacing professionals, AI may function as a “co-pilot.” Graduates who can effectively use AI tools — prompting them, checking outputs, and integrating them into workflows — could be in strong demand. 3. AI could dramatically improve education through personalised tutoring. Shiller highlights Bloom’s two-sigma problem, which shows that personalised tutoring can dramatically improve student outcomes. AI tutors could provide personalised learning at scale, potentially transforming education systems. 4. Productivity gains from AI may take time to appear. Like earlier technologies such as electricity or computers, AI may require years before its benefits show up in productivity statistics as businesses learn how to integrate it effectively. 5. 5. AI brings serious risks alongside its benefits. While AI could boost productivity and living standards, Shiller warns about potential downsides — including labour market disruption, social isolation from AI companionship, and the possibility of automated AI-driven warfare. TIMESTAMPS * 00:00 – Introduction * 03:08 – Using AI to write a book * 06:11 – The explosion of AI-generated content * 15:11 – AI, jobs, and the labour market * 21:23 – Can AI automate research? * 25:57 – AI blind spots and the “kangaroo problem” * 31:29 – Bloom’s two-sigma problem and AI tutors * 37:42 – Will AI boost productivity? * 42:30 – Inequality, regulation, and AI risks * 49:19 – AI and the dangers of automated warfare * 53:34 – Key takeaways and closing LINKS RELEVANT TO THE CONVERSATION Benjamin Shiller’s website: https://benjaminshiller.com/ [https://benjaminshiller.com/] AI Economics: How Technology Transforms Jobs, Markets, Life, & Our Future: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G45MKBZT [https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G45MKBZT] LUMO COFFEE PROMOTION 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED [https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED]   Promo code: 10EXPLORED