FedTalk

Amplifying Voices with the Small Business Credit Survey

Join us for a discussion of the latest Small Business Credit Survey [https://www.fedsmallbusiness.org/] (SBCS), administered in fall 2025, and the key findings from the recently released 2026 Report on Employer Firms: Findings from the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey [https://www.fedsmallbusiness.org/reports/survey/2026/2026-report-on-employer-firms]. Through the presentation, you will discover the key trends impacting small businesses, including * Their revenue and employment growth and expectations for future growth * Where owners are seeking funding and whether they can meet their financing needs * The impacts of changes in international trade and availability of artificial intelligence (AI) tools The SBCS has been administered nationally since 2016 by the 12 Federal Reserve Banks in collaboration with community and business groups throughout the country. The survey gathers information from thousands of small business owners on business conditions and characteristics, credit experiences, and owner demographics. It continues to be the largest national dataset of its kind. Speakers will take your questions after the presentation. Speaker * Hal Martin [https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/m/martin-hal], Policy Economist and SBCS Director, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland * Ann Marie Wiersch [https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/w/wiersch-ann-marie], Senior Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Moderator * Allison Clark [https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/c/clark-allison], SBCS Project Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

College Degrees and the Labor Market: Long-Run Trends and Recent Challenges for Young Graduates

For decades, a college degree was a reliable ticket to faster job placement, lower unemployment, and rising wages. But something fundamental shifted around the year 2000, and the consequences are only now becoming fully visible. Join us for a discussion of new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland that reveals a major transformation in the American labor market. Using nearly 50 years of data, researchers Alexander Cline and Barış Kaymak examine how the economic forces in the labor market that once strongly favored college-educated workers have shifted over the past several decades—and how young college graduates have lost their long-standing advantage in finding jobs faster. What you'll discover: * Why the unemployment gap between young high school and college graduates has hit its lowest level since the late 1970s—and why this isn't just a postpandemic phenomenon * How growth in labor demand switched from "college-biased" to "education-neutral" after the year 2000, ending decades of college-biased growth * What advantages college graduates retain despite their struggles with initial job placement and why the story is more nuanced than "college degrees don't matter anymore" This research documents significant shifts in how education relates to labor market outcomes over the past several decades. The findings raise important questions about the changing nature of work, education, and economic opportunity. The speaker will take your questions following the presentation. Speaker * Barış Kaymak [https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/k/kaymak-baris], Economic and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Moderator * Amy Morona [https://signalohio.org/author/amoronasignalcleveland-org/], Higher Education Reporter, Signal Ohio

Where Could Reshoring Manufacturers Find Workers?

In recent decades, manufacturing employment has fallen dramatically in the United States even as it has expanded globally. Policymakers have focused on trying to rebuild America's manufacturing base through initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act and new tariff policies. But a crucial question remains: Who will fill these jobs if manufacturing returns to the United States? This Fed Talk will dive into research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland that addresses this issue. Our discussion will highlight pools of potential manufacturing workers, including * Workers who could transition to manufacturing from lower-paying industries such as retail and food service * Young people entering the workforce who could begin careers in manufacturing * Working-age adults not currently in school or the workforce Panelists will also explore which regions of the country have existing manufacturing clusters, where manufacturing employment has grown recently, and which areas have the strongest potential for workforce expansion. The discussion could help employers, workforce development professionals, and educators prepare for potential reshoring of manufacturing jobs by creating pathways to help people start manufacturing careers. Panelists will take your questions following the presentation. Speakers * Marcia Ballinger, President, Lorain County Community College * Jacob Duritsky, Vice President, Strategy and Research, TEAM NEO * Annette Vickers, Senior Research Manager, ARM Institute * Stephan Whitaker, Senior Policy Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Moderator * Khaz Finley, Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

2026 Economic Outlook

Join the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland for its annual economic outlook Fed Talk webinar. Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, will analyze incoming economic indicators and walk through the US economic outlook for 2026. The session will offer valuable insights for professionals, academics, business leaders, and others interested in economic trends and policy. Various economic indicators critical for understanding the health and direction of the economy will be covered: * Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The broadest measure of economic activity at the national level. * Inflation Rates: Analysis of current inflation trends, the factors driving them, and their implications. * Labor Market Indicators: Employment growth, the unemployment rate, wage growth, and other measures that capture the health of the labor market. * Consumer Spending: Data related to the health of the US consumer, whose spending powers most of the overall economy. * Business Spending: AI-related investments are raising capital spending, but that's just one part of the story. * And more. The Fed Talk program is the Cleveland Fed's speaker series illuminating an array of issues related to the economy. Each session features economists and experts discussing subjects such as inflation, workforce trends, banking, and community development. Attendees can enhance their understanding of economic issues and trends. Interactive Q&A sessions allow participants to ask questions and engage directly with speakers. Speaker * Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Moderator * Julianne Dunn, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Cincinnati Branch

Dive into the Business Outlook and Trends Survey (BOTS)

The regional analysis group at the Cleveland Fed monitors the economy across the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, eastern Kentucky, western Pennsylvania, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. One important tool the group uses to keep tabs on economic developments across this region is the Business Outlook and Trends Survey (BOTS) [https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/business-outlook-and-trends-survey]. Join us for a conversation about the BOTS and the key role it plays in illuminating economic trends across the Fourth District. The BOTS is distributed by partner organizations twice a year and gathers data from a diverse range of businesses in the Fourth District on topics such as * Labor markets * Prices * Demand for regional goods and services The data collected through the BOTS potentially provide insights into economic changes before they show up in published data, helping businesses understand why and how trends may be occurring. The survey also informs the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, ensuring that the unique needs and conditions of the Fourth District are considered in the broader context of national economic policy. Speakers will take audience questions following the presentation. Speakers * Julianne Dunn [https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/d/dunn-julianne], regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Cincinnati Branch * Brooke Dirtzu [https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/d/dirtzu-brooke], economic analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland * Carol Moseley [https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/m/moseley-carol], research analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland * Brandon Mendoza [https://eriepa.com/Mendoza_Bio], president and CEO, Erie Regional Chamber and Growth Partnership Moderator * Russell Mills [https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/m/mills-russell], regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Pittsburgh Branch