The slower the Strait of Hormuz gets, the faster things move in the Gulf

We're living in the age of the Terminator

Will algorithms be better decision makers than humans when it REALLY counts? Some countries are betting on it, while others are taking baby steps. We’ve got a short episode about what autonomous weapons are, what they do, and why they could be consequential to the future of war and humanity, much like other parts of the AI boom that we are living in. Please do us a favor and share or drop a comment. We love hearing from our audience! All the best from both of us On the Fringe, Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe [https://onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

The Counterfeit by Dr. Ralph DeFalco

In this episode, Dave and Gav sit down with Dr. Ralph DeFalco, author of The Counterfeit, to talk about Chinese influence campaigns, economic coercion, and the blurry line between fiction and forecasting in the intelligence world. Dr. DeFalco is a U.S. national security operative with more than fifty years of experience. Their conversation explores how speculative fiction can function almost like strategic modeling, where imagined crises have a habit of becoming uncomfortably plausible a few years later. Dr. DeFalco talks about plotting a novel as a labour of love and how he drew from history to create a believable and authentic environment. On the Fringe also taps into how influence actually works in practice and why democracies continue to struggle to respond to slow-moving forms of pressure. One thing I (Dave) forgot to mention in the interview is that I felt the book shines a light into Chinese society under the CCP, specifically about how the Chinese Communist Party secures the Chinese state, how Chinese intelligence operations are conducted, and how information is tightly controlled in China behind the great firewall. If you’re hooked, here’s a link to bookshop.org to purchase the book. [https://bookshop.org/p/books/the-counterfeit/0fce8c4d1d587850?ean=9781935448563&next=t](we make ZERO commission) As always, thanks as always for joining us On the Fringe and don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share. All the best from both of us, Gav and Dave If you enjoyed it, share it. We TRULY appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe [https://onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

He said blockchain would revolutionize the world..and it revolutionized his

A former Google software Engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, got arrested and charged by the Feds in New York for wire fraud, insider trading, and a laundry list of financial crimes for using his position as a software engineer at Google to make crooked bets on Polymarket. The boys dive into the ongoing legal saga surrounding prediction markets and financial regulations in the United States, and make a long-term bet that this is still going to all wind up in the Supreme Court. But ol’ Michele’s going to jail. What’s your take on the future of prediction markets? Will they be state, or federally regulated? If you enjoyed the episode, restack, share it, and let us know. We sincerely appreciate it! All the best from both of us On the Fringe, Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe [https://onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

The rich tale of 'Gold Bar Dave,' a CIA Officer who took millions in gold bars home

In this episode, Dave and Gavin dive into a wild tale, and what may be the biggest counterintelligence failure in the 21st century. Former officer David “Gold Bar Dave” Rush, who allegedly worked in the agency’s Science and Technology Directorate, was recently arrested after fabricating his time sheets, and likely worse—hoarding 300 kilograms of gold bars from the agency for several months. After his arrest, the FBI also discovered several million dollars in cash, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in luxury watches in his house. Moreover, it’s now been discovered that Rush had weaved an intricate web of lies that the agency and DoD (now the Department of War) had fallen for (or ignored) for over a decade, including lies about every credential he had for almost two decades. He had also joined the Senior Executive Service (SES) as one of the top civil servants in the U.S. Government. Here is the affidavit outlining Rush’s charges. [https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28169902/rush-arrest-affidavit.pdf] If Rush’s charges are factually true and he is deemed to be guilty, these events point to critical missteps and tremendous failures that may lead to incredible damage to the United States once (if) the full story ever comes out, and, it should be a serious wakeup call for the U.S. intelligence community about how they vet Officers working with some of the most sensitive information, in some of the most sensitive positions in the country. If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, share, and subscribe. We sincerely appreciate your feedback and our growing Substack community! All the best from both of us, Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe [https://onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

The slower the Strait of Hormuz gets, the faster things move in the Gulf

In this episode, Gav and Dave dig into the stagnant security environment in the Gulf, where stranded cargo ships collecting barnacles have become a symbol of a region stuck in limbo, with trade still moving but nobody feeling particularly good about it. This week’s conversation connects maritime insecurity and rising shipping costs to the growing role of Pakistan as a formal military partner for Gulf states that is trying to convince parties outside the region that it’s a neutral third-party mediator. Dave and Gav also get into why negotiations keep going nowhere, talking on how the major players all want wildly differing outcomes and operate under political systems that reward displays of dominance and over the top claims more than compromise, leaving the region trapped in a crisis everyone claims to want resolved and nobody seems to want to settle. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe [https://onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]