Playbook of the Wealthy
You should probably learn "How NOT to Invest" as well as learning the right things to doBoomers were supposed to be broke. The Apple Store was supposed to fail. The dollar was supposed to crash. The people making those calls had decades of experience and the cover of major magazines, and the market did the opposite anyway.In this Playbook of the Wealthy episode, financial advisors Dave Grant of Retirement Matters and Heather Townsend of Townsend Financial unpack the lessons Heather pulled from Barry Ritholtz's new book How Not to Invest. They run through the famously wrong predictions (Michael Burry post-Big Short, Robert Kiyosaki on Twitter), the magazine covers that aged badly (Cisco, BlackBerry, the Apple Store, real estate 2005), the 96% the dollar has lost in purchasing power, and why a market-cap weighted index beats almost every stock picker once taxes are in the picture. Plus the ugliest cautionary tale in the book: a billionaire family that rode Belco Petroleum into Enron, Bernie Madoff, and finally FTX.▶ Listen on Apple, Spotify, or visit https://playbookotw.com★ WHAT YOU'LL LEARN ★▸ Why expert forecasts are statistically indistinguishable from random guesses (the Philip Tetlock study of 28,000 predictions)▸ Michael Burry's record after The Big Short, and why being right once doesn't make you right twice▸ Robert Kiyosaki's recent fearmongering and what the S&P actually did instead▸ The magazine covers that called Cisco, BlackBerry, and the Apple Store dead wrong▸ Why the dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power and what that means for cash-heavy business owners▸ The 9% vs. 12% stock trader: how taxes quietly erase the alpha you thought you earned▸ Why roughly 1% of public companies drive nearly all market returns, and why guessing them is near impossible▸ Market-cap weighted indexing: the boring formula that's nearly impossible to beat▸ The librarian who left $5 million to her library, and why "average" compounds into "exceptional"▸ The Belco Petroleum family: an immigrant billionaire dynasty that lost it all to Enron, Madoff, and FTX▸ John Foley, Peloton, and the cost of leverage plus a $55M Hamptons mansion at the top▸ Barry Ritholtz's 12-point investor's "bow" — from fees to cycles to long-term thinking★ CHAPTERS ★00:00 Cold open: boomers, the dollar, and the monkey with the dartboard01:06 The book Heather had to share: Barry Ritholtz's How Not to Invest01:54 Who is Barry Ritholtz?03:30 Lesson 1: Forecasts and predictions are more wrong than right04:51 Michael Burry's track record after The Big Short06:22 Robert Kiyosaki, fearmongering, and what the market actually did08:40 The Tetlock study: 28,000 forecasts and what they revealed09:44 Lesson 2: The media is just as bad as the pundits10:01 Cisco 2000, the Apple Store, and BlackBerry vs. iPhone11:16 The 2005 real estate cover (and the crash that followed)12:16 Lesson 3: Cash is for spending, not saving — the 96% dollar story13:25 Heather's grandmother-in-law, the CD ladder, and the Great Depression13:58 The best stock trader and why 12% turns back into 9% after taxes15:04 Most stocks don't matter — and why indexing wins17:11 Average performance turns into outperformance: the librarian story17:42 The boring bucket vs. the fun bucket20:19 Lesson 5: People brag about wins and hide their losses20:33 The Belco Petroleum family: Enron, Madoff, and FTX in one bloodline22:27 Peloton, John Foley, and the $55M Hamptons mistake25:08 Barry Ritholtz's 12-point investor's bow26:08 Heather's bow: a plan, a diversified portfolio, and ignoring the noise27:32 Highlights: Heather's hard Q1 hiring lesson29:21 Highlights: Bridgerton and The Pit — Dave's TV recommendations31:41 Wrap up
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