Russia Decoded

May 18, 2026: The Boy Who Cried Sarmat

On May 12, Russia test-fired the world's largest missile, the 208-ton Sarmat ICBM. That same week, Ukrainian drones penetrated Moscow's heavily-defended airspace to strike industrial plants and oil refineries. Against the backdrop of this asymmetry, Sergey Karaganov has returned to state television to argue that Russia must restore its credibility by striking a NATO country, and Vesti Nedeli's tone toward the West has sharpened across the board. Has the Kremlin's nuclear bluff simply crossed into boy-who-cried-wolf territory, or does the continued saber-rattling herald potential new schemes to divide Kyiv's Western supporters? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org [RussiaDecoded@cftni.org].

May 11, 2026: "The Matter Is Coming to an End"

During his lengthy press conference following the May 9 Victory Day parade, Vladimir Putin slipped in an almost offhand remark that "the matter is coming to an end" — a phrase Western outlets quickly seized on as a signal that the war in Ukraine may finally be winding down. But was that really what Putin meant? Read in the context of continued nuclear threats on state television, North Korean troops marching across Red Square, and a new Russian law authorizing military intervention to "rescue" citizens abroad, the remark begins to sound less like capitulation and more like its opposite. Is Putin's comment an admission of exhaustion, or a threat of escalation toward the West? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org [RussiaDecoded@cftni.org].

May 3, 2026: Murky Signals From Moscow

Last week, Vladimir Putin held a 90-minute phone call with Donald Trump, ostensibly to express concern over a recent assassination attempt and to revive the "spirit of Anchorage." Yet for all the warm headlines, Russian state media's coverage of the call and other top news stories has been unusually murky, with signals pulling in different directions on Iran, Ukraine, and Europe. Did Putin place the call to head off King Charles's potential influence on Trump? Why has Moscow's nuclear rhetoric toward Europe suddenly gone quiet? And why is the buildup to the May 9 Victory Day parade so conspicuously muted? This week's Vesti Nedeli broadcast hints at a Kremlin calibrating. But calibrating toward what? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org [RussiaDecoded@cftni.org].

April 19, 2026: Turning the Screws on Europe

Is Russian state media prepping its audience for a showdown with Europe? Recent broadcasts have framed European drone factories as legitimate military targets and accused Kyiv of deliberately dragging the continent into conflict with Moscow. Beneath the rhetoric, a quietly advancing Duma law (reportedly drafted inside Putin's own family) would give the Kremlin sweeping new authority to deploy its military abroad. Meanwhile, coverage of Donald Trump has turned sharply hostile, with Moscow mocking the U.S. war effort as a "holy war" led by "crusaders" in the White House. And as Vesti Nedeli continues its glowing coverage of Sino-Russian ties, do these stories signal that the Kremlin is abandoning any pretense of diplomacy with the West? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org [RussiaDecoded@cftni.org].

April 12, 2026: Moscow Loses Its Hungarian Trump Card

On Sunday, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party secured a historic victory in Hungary's parliamentary election, ousting current prime minister Viktor Orbán and depriving the Kremlin of its most reliable tool for blocking European assistance to Ukraine. While muted on the election results, Russian state media has continued to hammer at Europe, deriding NATO members as "junk bond" allies and highlighting the Royal Navy’s recent failure to confront a Russian incursion into British territorial waters. This hardline narrative even extends across the Atlantic. The collapse of the Islamabad peace talks has triggered sharp Russian criticism of president Donald Trump’s "madman" negotiation tactics and his megalomaniacal threat to destroy Iranian civilization. In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org [RussiaDecoded@cftni.org].