Cem Karsan: The Market Is Being Managed (And That Tells You Something)

NVIDIA Just Beat for the 18th Time, Why Did the Stock Barely Move?

Michele Steele sits down with longtime tech analyst Michael Parekh to break down NVIDIA's latest earnings — $81.6 billion in revenue, 85% growth with guidance for 95% next quarter, and the 18th consecutive quarter of beating expectations. Yet the stock barely moved. Why? Michael walks through the bull case piece by piece: 75% GAAP margins, a freshly hiked dividend (from one cent to 25 cents), an $80 billion buyback, and a valuation that's still only ~27x for a business growing 85–95%. The Blackwell-to-Vera Rubin chip transition is just beginning, and the new architecture is priced higher and dramatically more capable. Then the harder conversations: the missing $10B+ in China revenue that NVIDIA has officially zeroed out of guidance, Huawei and SMIC's chip push, and why CUDA's 19-year head start makes a clean Chinese substitute unrealistic for at least five years. Michael also explains why three megacap AI IPOs — SpaceX in June, OpenAI in September, Anthropic likely in October — could pressure NVIDIA short-term as portfolios reallocate. And the big picture: Jensen's forecast of $3–4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade. Michael thinks the real ceiling is closer to $5 trillion, and that the gating factor isn't demand — it's TSMC, which he calls 'the Federal Reserve of the global tech market.' 00:00  GraniteShares NVDL sponsor read 00:27  Welcome to StockTwits TV with Michele Steele 00:39  Michael's black leather jacket (a Jensen homage) 00:51  The numbers: $81.6B revenue, 95% growth guide 01:08  Anything to give us pause? The missing China revenue 01:32  Huawei and the China domestic chip push 01:54  75% GAAP margins explained 02:12  Demand and supply locked in for years 02:21  Blackwell → Vera Rubin: the next chip cycle 02:40  Why the stock barely moved after a monster beat 03:18  The Apollo 13 analogy: an 18th-quarter beat 04:02  Vera Rubin ramp starting Q2/Q3 04:22  Valuation: 26–27x for 85–95% growth 04:44  Three mega AI IPOs: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic 05:06  Why portfolio reallocation pressures NVDA short-term 05:31  Dividend hike + $80B buyback 06:00  $50B+ in strategic tech-stack investments 06:10  The Groq acquisition that became a product in 4 months 06:33  "Circular deals" and the CoreWeave foundational stake 06:55  Hyperscalers spending $150–200B/year 07:22  Back to the China elephant in the room 07:43  Could a Trump–Xi meeting re-rate NVIDIA overnight? 08:25  China is already getting NVIDIA chips through porous markets 08:49  Chinese AI subsidiaries in Singapore and Asia 09:17  Can Huawei / DeepSeek replicate NVIDIA? 09:46  Huawei chips are 1–3 generations behind 10:00  China has cheap power to brute-force less efficient chips 10:28  CUDA: the 19-year software moat 10:57  Why Huawei chips need 6–12 months of extra software work 11:18  China can't escape NVIDIA for at least five years 11:38  Jensen's $3–4 trillion AI infrastructure forecast 12:06  Bigger than the internet. Bigger than mobile. 12:12  TSMC: the gating factor on all AI growth 12:33  "TSMC is the Federal Reserve of the global tech market" 12:56  Jensen flying to Taiwan every month asking for more fabs 13:15  Chatbots → agents → reasoning: 100x more inference compute 13:55  Wrap & Michael's Substack plug 14:14  Sponsor outro: GraniteShares NVDL Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

The $2 Trillion SpaceX IPO Is Coming for Your Mom's 401(k)

Michele Steele sits down with Ben Cahn (After Hours) for a bonus crossover episode of StockTwits TV. They open on Ben's recent run-in with a hostile cat — and the very real cortisol spike that came with it — before turning to the markets. On the table: the wild Cerebras IPO that priced way above its original $150–$200 range and opened around $350, the rumored SpaceX IPO debuting at a $2 trillion valuation, and the uncomfortable reality that retail investors increasingly serve as exit liquidity for venture capital. Ben argues the software sector has bottomed. The IGV ETF dropped 20–30% in Q1 on fears that AI would kill SaaS, but volume has surged since February and Jensen Huang himself says the entire move was an overreaction. The new narrative: AI is accretive to software, not destructive (Jevons paradox). Plus: Chinese conglomerates quietly rolling up American consumer brands (Shein/Everlane, Luckin/Blue Bottle, Anta/Arc'teryx), Chinese EV build quality, Trump-family trades and World Liberty Financial, the enshittification of everything, and a brief national crisis over Spotify's disco-ball icon. 00:00  Cold open & Ben's cat attack 02:08  Evolution, primal fear, and Brooklyn apartments 02:43  "Would you buy your own stock?" 03:14  T-Rex shares & 3x levered Raptors 03:43  The Cerebras IPO — what actually happened 04:54  Where Ben would dip a toe (sub-$300) 05:13  Why retail can't build wealth in IPOs anymore 06:15  SpaceX at a $2 trillion valuation 07:01  Are P/E and market cap antiquated? 07:17  Vibes better than valuations 07:47  The Economist: is the market ignoring reality? 08:53  Narratives, FinTwit, and post-hoc reasoning 09:39  The Strait of Hormuz only matters when it matters 10:50  Running out of distractions 11:44  Why this administration won't let stocks fall 12:05  IGV: is software bottoming? 13:07  Volume surge signals a tradable bottom 13:21  Anthropic / Claude killing SaaS narrative 13:50  Jensen Huang says it's an overreaction 14:46  "Service Yesterday" — Ben pitches a rival 15:50  Jevons paradox & AI as accretive 16:29  Trump family trades every 9 minutes 17:22  Shein acquires Everlane for $100M 18:06  Luckin acquires Blue Bottle 19:10  Chinese conglomerates rolling up US brands 19:58  Enshittification of everything 20:36  Luckin's near-delisting comeback 21:28  Arc'teryx is owned by Anta Sports 22:46  Chinese EV build quality (BYD on US roads) 23:40  Spotify's disco-ball icon backlash 25:11  The real news we're not paying attention to 26:27  Phones in black-and-white mode & Cerebrus jokes 27:14  Inside Spotify's World Trade Center offices 28:23  Bloomberg's elite snacks 28:40  Semiconductors: SOXL, SMH, SiC, GaN 29:38  Stuffing semiconductor nerds in lockers 29:58  "Local top" — the joke they didn't make 30:21  Wrap & God bless America ► Subscribe to StockTwits TV for daily market coverage. ► Follow Ben Cahn's After Hours podcast wherever you get your shows. ► Join the conversation on StockTwits.

Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma on Q1 Earnings, Growth Strategies and Prediction Markets as a 'Super Cycle'

In this exclusive interview, Robinhood's Chief Financial Officer, Shiv Verma, joins Michele Steele on Stocktwits TV to discuss the company's Q1 earnings results. Verma dives deep into the numbers, exploring Robinhood's impressive growth in revenue, net income, and gold subscriptions. He also shares insights into Robinhood's future plans, including its ongoing commitment to the crypto market, its expansion into new asset classes like prediction markets, and its strategies for becoming a leading global financial ecosystem. Key Topics Covered: Robinhood's Q1 earnings performance The strength of the retail investor and Robinhood's growing customer base The importance of Robinhood Gold and the new Platinum card The impact of the SEC's proposed changes to the Pattern Day Trader (PDT) rule Robinhood's vision for the future, including global expansion and the role of AI

Cem Karsan: The Market Is Being Managed (And That Tells You Something)

The UAE just announced it’s leaving OPEC effective May 1. Oil is back above 100. The Iran war is in its ninth week. And last month, Cem Karsan told StocktwitsTV to buckle up. Michele Steele sits down with Cem Karsan of CHI Wealth and CHI Volatility Advisors to connect the dots: Cem argues the Middle East conflict is part of a broader China vs U.S. battle where the moat to the dollar runs through oil, and the U.S. is using financial markets as a primary tool of power. Cem breaks down why the biggest tell is market structure itself: he says we’ve “never in 125 years” seen a 15% rally come out of only a 5–10% decline from all-time highs, and he frames this as proactive crisis-style market management—because markets create liquidity, not just reflect it. Then he runs through what he calls a “mosaic” of preparations: emergency meetings around private credit and cybersecurity, energy and infrastructure deregulation, shifting industrial priorities, and even Hank Paulson floating a facility to backstop the Treasury market—moves Cem says don’t happen if leaders believe the crisis ends in two weeks. Finally, Michele and Cem talk catalysts the U.S. can’t control—oil, global FX stress, and geopolitical flashpoints like Taiwan—and what it means for the AI trade, inflation, and volatility into summer. Cem’s view: the squeeze power is diminishing, managed mean reversion is likely, vol compression could dominate summer, but the “boots on the ground” realities keep getting worse. Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/ Chapters / Timestamps 00:01 - UAE exits OPEC 00:58 - China vs US framing 02:41 - Dollar moat is oil 03:26 - UAE financial center risk 05:12 - Managed preparation 06:52 - Historic rally signal 08:37 - Proactive market support 09:30 - Markets are the input 10:35 - Too big to fail 12:25 - Market up, reality worse 14:29 - Revisiting the thesis 16:38 - Play the players 18:29 - Crisis prep tells 20:22 - Emergency actions list 22:16 - Hank Paulson warning 25:34 - What forces repricing 28:37 - Taiwan risk to AI 30:01 - Inflation is on menu 32:57 - OpenAI revenue miss 35:14 - What happens next 37:33 - Squeeze power fading 38:59 - “Peace” headlines timing 41:44 - Vol compression vs bleed 44:08 - Trading the bully table 46:19 - Wrap

LendingClub’s Big Quarter: Scott Sanborn on Credit Strength and the Happen Bank Rebrand

Welcome back to StocktwitsTV. Michele Steele is joined by Scott Sanborn, CEO of LendingClub, soon to be Happen Bank, after a major quarter: originations up 31% and EPS at 44 cents, a beat by 22%. Scott explains what drove the performance: strong execution across controllable levers like expansionary marketing and cross-product adoption, plus credit that is outperforming expectations despite noisy headlines about consumer health. He shares standout engagement data, including roughly 40% of auto customers applying for a personal loan, and nearly a quarter of savings accounts coming from former borrowers. Michele digs into the private credit debate, asking whether SaaS-linked fears are being conflated with LendingClub’s funding story. Scott says funding looks strong: more loans sold in Q1 than Q4, at higher prices, with buyers signaling intent to keep purchasing because returns have held up. The biggest strategic shift is the rebrand: LendingClub is becoming Happen Bank. Scott explains why now is the right time, why “bank” matters for trust, and how “Happen” reflects an action-oriented customer who chooses to improve their finances. In rapid-fire community questions, Scott addresses whether Happen Bank will advertise on TV, how the strategy differs from SoFi, and how LendingClub plans to grow responsibly without chasing market share at the expense of credit quality. He also outlines the product roadmap: home improvement loans launching now, DebtIQ improvements including transaction monitoring, and home equity as a likely next major product once builds are complete. Finally, Michele asks about the impact of geopolitical shocks and higher oil on rates and borrowers. Scott says the immediate hit is the rate outlook shifting from three cuts to zero, but he maintains guidance and says the company is not seeing leading indicators of consumer stress in the tighter approval box it now underwrites. Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/ Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 - Big quarter recap 00:22 - Execution levers working 00:53 - Cross-product traction 01:09 - Credit beats expectations 01:26 - Private credit noise 02:05 - SaaS fear explained 02:32 - Loan buyers still active 02:54 - Hybrid model advantage 03:28 - Happen Bank rebrand 04:16 - Why name change now 04:42 - “Bank” builds trust 05:10 - “Make it happen” meaning 06:18 - TV advertising question 07:22 - Moving up the funnel 08:22 - Focused customer strategy 09:33 - Borrowers become savers 10:42 - Burner account question 11:11 - Market share vs credit 11:55 - 40–50% lower delinquencies 12:43 - “Marathon, not sprint” 14:26 - Product roadmap 14:37 - Home improvement launch 15:39 - DebtIQ upgrades 16:14 - Home equity next 17:30 - Rate cuts now zero 18:17 - No stress indicators 19:18 - Provision near zero 20:19 - Wrap