Forecasting Chaos

The Biggest Asshole Always Wins

Most people assume the majority gets its way. This episode explores why group decisions are often determined less by numbers than by the willingness of competing factions to apply pressure, and what that means for politics, corporations, and modern institutions.

Do We Follow The Evidence, Or Lead It?

Most people believe they follow the evidence wherever it leads. In reality, we often do the opposite. When confronted with information that challenges our existing beliefs, we rarely evaluate it objectively. Instead, we rationalize it, reinterpret it, or dismiss it altogether in order to preserve our preferred theories, narratives, and worldviews. In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines why people cling to beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence, the incentives that encourage theory defense, and how public commitment, social pressure, and personal attachment can distort our judgment.

The Windmills We Create

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines how individuals and societies create "windmills" to fight. Drawing on the story of Don Quixote, he explores the psychological and social forces that cause threats to be exaggerated, narratives to spiral, and well-intentioned responses to become overreactions. From evolutionary instincts and strategic calculations to ego needs and institutional incentives, this episode looks at why the dangers we perceive often grow larger than the realities that inspired them.

Inside the Mind of a Bureaucrat

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines how personal incentives influence decision-making inside institutions. Although individuals are expected to act in the best interests of the organizations they serve, competing pressures—including career advancement, ideology, comfort, relationships, and ego—often shape decisions in ways that diverge from an institution's stated purpose. Topics include: • Fiduciary duty and organizational purpose • Career incentives and high-profile prosecutions • The Asch conformity experiments • Bureaucratic inertia and institutional culture • Ideology, ego, and self-image • Why organizations often drift from their original mission

Can Government Be Efficient?

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines why governments often appear less efficient than other organizations and explores whether that outcome is inevitable. Using socialism, bureaucracy, and institutional incentives as a case study, the episode examines how organizations develop interests of their own, how bureaucratic structures expand over time, and why the goals of institutions, offices, and individuals often diverge from their original mission. Topics include: • Government efficiency and public trust • Organizational interests vs. stated intent • Bureaucratic growth and mission drift • Personal incentives within institutions • Why voters often feel they aren't getting value for their tax dollars • Whether effective government is possible