Thesis under Fire

Global Macro Weekly 11th January, 2026

In this week’s episode, we break down a chaotic week in global macro where geopolitics took centre stage. From the US President’s controversial bid to buy Greenland to the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, political friction is driving market uncertainty. We cover: • The US Economy: Why the "No Hire, No Fire" labour market is keeping things stable despite weak manufacturing numbers. We also discuss the "Sanctioning Russia Act, 2025" and how the potential purchase of Greenland is straining the NATO alliance. • Japan’s Bullish Rate Hike: The Bank of Japan is hiking rates, but unlike the past, the Nikkei and yields are rising together—signalling that growth is finally genuine. • India’s Telecom & Tariff Troubles: GDP forecasts are down to 7.4%, and the government faces a dilemma over capping AGR dues for Vodafone Idea and Airtel. Plus, we analyze the threat of 500% tariffs on Indian imports due to Russian oil usage. • The AI Capex Cycle: Are we nearing the end of the AI rally? We outline the "5 Stages of the Rally" and explain why we might be transitioning from Stage 2 (Hyper scaler spending) to Stage 4 (Inventory glut). Tune in for the data, the divergence, and the trade ideas you need for the week ahead.