TWIL: Hope Is Not a Plan — Iran Deal Signals, RTCCO Goes Live, FedEx Freight Goes Independent

TWIL: How to Deliver an Amazon-Like Experience — with Rob Hango-Zada from Shippit

The fulfillment bottleneck. The three-day gap hiding inside your own operation. And the delivery benchmark your customers are already measuring you against. Let's dive in. In This Week in Logistics, CartonCloud CEO Shaun Hagen sits down with Rob Hango-Zada, Co-Founder and Joint-CEO of Shippit — the platform powering around 100 million deliveries a year across retailers like Kmart, Myer, and JB Hi-Fi. Courier companies are delivering in under two business days from collection. Retailers are quoting five to seven at checkout. The three-day gap in between is sitting upstream in the retailer's own warehouse — not in the carrier network. Rob Hango-Zada calls it the fulfillment bottleneck, and it's the layer most 3PLs and retailers are underinvesting in right now. At the same time, the Amazon delivery expectation has crossed out of B2C and into B2B. Pallet buyers want the same tracking certainty as parcel buyers. And the retailers winning on delivery — like Petbarn, who can pick, pack, and ship within five minutes of checkout — aren't doing it by finding a faster carrier. They're doing it by fixing the operation upstream. The question most retailers are asking is how to match Amazon's delivery speed. The more useful one is whether their warehouse operation can actually support the promise they're making at checkout. This episode unpacks what the Amazon delivery benchmark actually means for mid-market 3PLs, transport operators, and the retailers they serve right now. This week we cover: * Why the fulfillment bottleneck is the real delivery problem — and why fixing the warehouse layer matters more than finding a faster carrier * How to build a delivery proposition when you're not Amazon — Rob's proximity-versus-purchase-frequency framework, and why copying competitors is the wrong starting point * Why the e-commerce delivery expectation has crossed into B2B, what's really driving it, and what 3PLs need to do before their retail clients ask the question * What Petbarn's five-minute pick-pack-ship benchmark means for 3PLs building e-commerce capability — and why it's an operational discipline, not a carrier feature * The three things that have to be in place before speed: inventory visibility before checkout, pick-pack-ship velocity, and a connected tech stack that surfaces real-time capacity * Why multi-carrier flexibility is back on the agenda — and what single-carrier dependency costs when surcharges hit * Why delivery spend belongs in the same budget category as your loyalty program — not your cost-to-reduce line * Three practical starting points for the next 30 to 60 days: audit your existing tech before buying new, map the fulfillment bottleneck in your own operation, and match your delivery proposition to your customers' actual purchase behaviour If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse supporting e-commerce clients, this episode will help you close the gap between what your customers expect and what your operation can deliver: From blaming the carrier → to fixing the upstream fulfillment bottleneckFrom chasing Amazon's model → to building a delivery proposition matched to your customers, proximity, and purchase frequencyFrom treating delivery as a cost line → to treating it as an investment in customer loyalty Technology amplifies a good operation. It does not fix a broken one. Start with the operation. Then connect the tech.

TWIL: Hope Is Not a Plan — Iran Deal Signals, RTCCO Goes Live, FedEx Freight Goes Independent

The first real Iran deal signal since February, the RTCCO review hearing, and FedEx Freight going independent next week. Let's dive in. This Week in Logistics, we're tracking the first genuine signal of hope since the Hormuz crisis began in February — and why hope is not a plan. President Trump announced the Iran deal is largely negotiated and will be announced shortly, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time in weeks. But Iran's state media immediately pushed back, calling the announcement incomplete and inconsistent with reality. The deal looks like a memorandum of understanding as a first phase, with broader negotiations to follow. Meanwhile, the Fair Work Commission held its first formal review hearing for the RTCCO — the road transport fuel cost recovery order that's been live for five weeks. And FedEx Freight, the largest LTL carrier in North America, is going independent next week. The FedEx board has approved the separation, trading starts on the New York Stock Exchange on the 1st of June under ticker FDXF — an $8.7 billion revenue business that has been sitting inside a parcel company for 25 years, now competing on its own. The question most operators are asking is whether the deal will hold. The more useful one is: what does your pricing look like if it does, and what does it look like if it doesn't? This episode unpacks what these three shifts mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why the Iran deal headline is the most positive signal since February — and why unwinding your fuel surcharge on hope is structurally dangerous * What Aramco and Chevron's CEOs have already told us about how slowly fuel costs come down even in the best case, and why six to twelve months is the realistic timeline * Why the RTCCO review hearing today marks a transition from crisis response to permanent regulation, and what construction, council, and small operators are now asking the Commission * The broader lesson: emergency regulation has a habit of becoming permanent regulation, and the fortnightly fuel adjustment cadence may well outlast the crisis that triggered it * What FedEx Freight going independent on the 1st of June actually means — 370 service centres, $1 billion in projected annual free cash flow, 300 IT applications cut, new shipment initiation from five clicks to one * Why intermodal volumes are up over 7% year-on-year, and why the mode shift window where intermodal pricing lags trucking is still open * The customer expectation gap that is now commercially dangerous: customers hear "deal close" and expect immediate relief while operators are still carrying elevated fuel, labour, compliance, and infrastructure costs * Three practical actions for the next seven days: don't unwind on hope, check your RTCCO compliance, and watch the structural shifts If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From pricing to a single headline → to building margins that work in both directionsFrom assuming existing rise-and-fall clauses are enough → to verifying they meet the RTCCO minimum standardFrom treating structural shifts as distractions → to recognising the competitive landscape that exists when the fuel crisis eases The operators who will be strongest in six months are the ones paying attention to both the fuel crisis and the structural shifts underneath it. Spot the pattern early. Simplify your response. And this week — hope is a good sign, but it is not a plan. Prepare for both outcomes.

TWIL: Aramco Says Oil Won't Normalize Until 2027 — And Two Other Shifts That Moved the Ground This Week

The 2027 oil normalization timeline, Australia's $45B Inland Rail decision, and a 1-in-3 truck out-of-service rate. Let's dive in. Last week on the podcast, we tracked volatility as the operating environment. #Thisweekinlogistics, the dramatic swings have settled — but when the dust settles, you get to see what the ground actually looks like and what has moved. And the ground has moved in some significant ways. Saudi Aramco's CEO confirmed the oil market will not normalize until 2027, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today. Australia's Federal Government scaled back Inland Rail, halting the northern corridor and redirecting $1.75 billion into the existing rail network. New Zealand and Singapore signed a world-first legally binding supply chain resilience pact. CVSA's Roadcheck Day 1 data came back with roughly 1 in 3 trucks placed out of service — up from 1 in 5 at last year's full event. And the industry conversation around Amazon Supply Chain Services has shifted from shock to the practical question of what operators actually do about it. The question most operators have been asking is when does this all settle. The more useful one is: now that the dust has, what has actually moved underneath your planning assumptions? This episode unpacks the three structural shifts and what they mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why the Hormuz crisis has stopped being a short-term disruption and started looking like a structural reality through 2027 — and what that means for surcharge models built on temporary assumptions * Why Inland Rail being scaled back forces East Coast Australian operators to revisit depot, corridor, and multimodal planning built around a corridor that may no longer arrive * What the New Zealand-Singapore resilience pact signals about governments treating supply chains as strategic national capability * Why a 1-in-3 out-of-service rate at CVSA Roadcheck Day 1 is now translating directly into fleet availability in the tightest truck market in a decade * How the AWS comparison reframes Amazon Supply Chain Services as a long-term structural shift, not a short-term shock * Why knowing your own performance number — on-time rate, exception resolution, onboarding speed, cost-to-serve — is becoming commercially dangerous to not know * Three practical actions for the next seven days: make fuel structures permanent, pressure-test network assumptions, and make performance visible If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From temporary surcharge models → to permanent two-directional pricing structuresFrom planning to infrastructure timelines → to pressure-testing assumptions that may not arriveFrom watching big tech publish performance data → to knowing your own number cold The operators handling this well aren't waiting for things to normalise. They're treating 2027 as the planning horizon, revisiting the assumptions underneath their network, and answering performance questions with specificity. Spot the pattern early. Simplify your response. Know exactly where the ground has moved.

TWIL: Volatility Is the Operating Environment

$18 Brent Swings, Decade-Low Capacity, and Amazon's 96.4% Benchmark. Let’s dive in. This Week in Logistics, we're tracking what happens when volatility stops being a disruption and becomes the operating environment. Brent crude swung $18 in a single week — $115 down to $97 on ceasefire hopes, then back above $105 after Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal. At the same time, DAT says truck availability is already at a decade low — and CVSA's annual road check just pulled thousands more trucks off the road. And Amazon Supply Chain Services posted its first benchmark: 96.4% on-time delivery, with P&G, 3M, and Lands' End confirmed as early adopters. The question most operators are still asking is: when will fuel and capacity normalize? The more useful one is: what will your operation looks like if neither does? Join CartonCloud CEO Shaun Hagen to unpack what these three pressures mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why planning to a single Brent price is now structurally flawed, and how to build a fuel surcharge cadence that adjusts in both directions * Why capacity is tightening from four directions at once — fuel economics, compliance crackdowns, seasonal demand, and CVSA road check stacking on top of each other * What FedEx reactivating retired MD-11 freighter aircraft actually signals about the freight market * Why Amazon's 96.4% on-time delivery rate will appear in your next customer conversation, even if your customer isn't considering switching * How mid-market operators differentiate against a platform built for standardised freight * The CVSA Road Check numbers worth knowing this week — 15 inspections per minute, 72 hours, and roughly 13,000 trucks pulled off the road in a single weekend * Three practical actions for the next seven days: build pricing across the range, manage the capacity crunch proactively, and know your own number If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From planning to a single price → to building margins that work across the rangeFrom waiting for capacity to ease → to communicating before the pressure arrives at the customerFrom watching Amazon → to knowing exactly where your service complexity makes you irreplaceable The operators who are winning right now are the ones who plan for the range, not the headline. Plan for range. Communicate before the pressure arrives. Know your number.

TWIL: The Hormuz Fuel Crisis, Freight Upcycle + Amazon Supply Chain Update

#ThisWeekinLogistics, we're covering two weeks of news in one episode — because the volume of developments between late April and early May has been extraordinary. The Strait of Hormuz escalated from blockade to live fire. Amazon opened its entire logistics network to any business globally. And Q1 freight earnings confirmed what operators have been feeling on the ground — rates are up, but it's fuel and supply pressure doing the work, not demand. The question most people are still asking is when does this settle. The more useful one is what does your operation look like if it doesn't? This episode unpacks all three structural shifts and what they mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why the Strait of Hormuz crisis has moved from economic disruption to a permanent operating environment — and what that means for your planning assumptions * Why every fuel model built on pre-February assumptions is now structurally wrong * What Amazon Supply Chain Services actually is, who it competes with, and where mid-market operators still have a clear advantage * Why the freight upcycle is real but fragile — and how a supply-driven cycle behaves differently to a demand-driven one * Why every major parcel carrier globally is running an active fuel surcharge simultaneously for the first time ever * The mode-shift window that's open right now — and how offering options turns a provider into a logistics partner * Three practical actions for the next seven days: stress-testing your fuel model, mapping your Amazon exposure, and connecting to crisis infrastructure If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From waiting for normal → to planning for what's in front of youFrom riding the rate wave → to fixing your cost structure while conditions allowFrom reacting to Amazon → to knowing exactly where you compete and win The operators doing well right now aren't waiting for things to calm down. They're being disciplined because things haven't — and they're planning for that to stay the case.