TWIL: Volatility Is the Operating Environment

TWIL: Hope Is Not a Plan — Iran Deal Signals, RTCCO Goes Live, FedEx Freight Goes Independent

The first real Iran deal signal since February, the RTCCO review hearing, and FedEx Freight going independent next week. Let's dive in. This Week in Logistics, we're tracking the first genuine signal of hope since the Hormuz crisis began in February — and why hope is not a plan. President Trump announced the Iran deal is largely negotiated and will be announced shortly, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time in weeks. But Iran's state media immediately pushed back, calling the announcement incomplete and inconsistent with reality. The deal looks like a memorandum of understanding as a first phase, with broader negotiations to follow. Meanwhile, the Fair Work Commission held its first formal review hearing for the RTCCO — the road transport fuel cost recovery order that's been live for five weeks. And FedEx Freight, the largest LTL carrier in North America, is going independent next week. The FedEx board has approved the separation, trading starts on the New York Stock Exchange on the 1st of June under ticker FDXF — an $8.7 billion revenue business that has been sitting inside a parcel company for 25 years, now competing on its own. The question most operators are asking is whether the deal will hold. The more useful one is: what does your pricing look like if it does, and what does it look like if it doesn't? This episode unpacks what these three shifts mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why the Iran deal headline is the most positive signal since February — and why unwinding your fuel surcharge on hope is structurally dangerous * What Aramco and Chevron's CEOs have already told us about how slowly fuel costs come down even in the best case, and why six to twelve months is the realistic timeline * Why the RTCCO review hearing today marks a transition from crisis response to permanent regulation, and what construction, council, and small operators are now asking the Commission * The broader lesson: emergency regulation has a habit of becoming permanent regulation, and the fortnightly fuel adjustment cadence may well outlast the crisis that triggered it * What FedEx Freight going independent on the 1st of June actually means — 370 service centres, $1 billion in projected annual free cash flow, 300 IT applications cut, new shipment initiation from five clicks to one * Why intermodal volumes are up over 7% year-on-year, and why the mode shift window where intermodal pricing lags trucking is still open * The customer expectation gap that is now commercially dangerous: customers hear "deal close" and expect immediate relief while operators are still carrying elevated fuel, labour, compliance, and infrastructure costs * Three practical actions for the next seven days: don't unwind on hope, check your RTCCO compliance, and watch the structural shifts If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From pricing to a single headline → to building margins that work in both directionsFrom assuming existing rise-and-fall clauses are enough → to verifying they meet the RTCCO minimum standardFrom treating structural shifts as distractions → to recognising the competitive landscape that exists when the fuel crisis eases The operators who will be strongest in six months are the ones paying attention to both the fuel crisis and the structural shifts underneath it. Spot the pattern early. Simplify your response. And this week — hope is a good sign, but it is not a plan. Prepare for both outcomes.

TWIL: Aramco Says Oil Won't Normalize Until 2027 — And Two Other Shifts That Moved the Ground This Week

The 2027 oil normalization timeline, Australia's $45B Inland Rail decision, and a 1-in-3 truck out-of-service rate. Let's dive in. Last week on the podcast, we tracked volatility as the operating environment. #Thisweekinlogistics, the dramatic swings have settled — but when the dust settles, you get to see what the ground actually looks like and what has moved. And the ground has moved in some significant ways. Saudi Aramco's CEO confirmed the oil market will not normalize until 2027, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today. Australia's Federal Government scaled back Inland Rail, halting the northern corridor and redirecting $1.75 billion into the existing rail network. New Zealand and Singapore signed a world-first legally binding supply chain resilience pact. CVSA's Roadcheck Day 1 data came back with roughly 1 in 3 trucks placed out of service — up from 1 in 5 at last year's full event. And the industry conversation around Amazon Supply Chain Services has shifted from shock to the practical question of what operators actually do about it. The question most operators have been asking is when does this all settle. The more useful one is: now that the dust has, what has actually moved underneath your planning assumptions? This episode unpacks the three structural shifts and what they mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why the Hormuz crisis has stopped being a short-term disruption and started looking like a structural reality through 2027 — and what that means for surcharge models built on temporary assumptions * Why Inland Rail being scaled back forces East Coast Australian operators to revisit depot, corridor, and multimodal planning built around a corridor that may no longer arrive * What the New Zealand-Singapore resilience pact signals about governments treating supply chains as strategic national capability * Why a 1-in-3 out-of-service rate at CVSA Roadcheck Day 1 is now translating directly into fleet availability in the tightest truck market in a decade * How the AWS comparison reframes Amazon Supply Chain Services as a long-term structural shift, not a short-term shock * Why knowing your own performance number — on-time rate, exception resolution, onboarding speed, cost-to-serve — is becoming commercially dangerous to not know * Three practical actions for the next seven days: make fuel structures permanent, pressure-test network assumptions, and make performance visible If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From temporary surcharge models → to permanent two-directional pricing structuresFrom planning to infrastructure timelines → to pressure-testing assumptions that may not arriveFrom watching big tech publish performance data → to knowing your own number cold The operators handling this well aren't waiting for things to normalise. They're treating 2027 as the planning horizon, revisiting the assumptions underneath their network, and answering performance questions with specificity. Spot the pattern early. Simplify your response. Know exactly where the ground has moved.

TWIL: Volatility Is the Operating Environment

$18 Brent Swings, Decade-Low Capacity, and Amazon's 96.4% Benchmark. Let’s dive in. This Week in Logistics, we're tracking what happens when volatility stops being a disruption and becomes the operating environment. Brent crude swung $18 in a single week — $115 down to $97 on ceasefire hopes, then back above $105 after Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal. At the same time, DAT says truck availability is already at a decade low — and CVSA's annual road check just pulled thousands more trucks off the road. And Amazon Supply Chain Services posted its first benchmark: 96.4% on-time delivery, with P&G, 3M, and Lands' End confirmed as early adopters. The question most operators are still asking is: when will fuel and capacity normalize? The more useful one is: what will your operation looks like if neither does? Join CartonCloud CEO Shaun Hagen to unpack what these three pressures mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why planning to a single Brent price is now structurally flawed, and how to build a fuel surcharge cadence that adjusts in both directions * Why capacity is tightening from four directions at once — fuel economics, compliance crackdowns, seasonal demand, and CVSA road check stacking on top of each other * What FedEx reactivating retired MD-11 freighter aircraft actually signals about the freight market * Why Amazon's 96.4% on-time delivery rate will appear in your next customer conversation, even if your customer isn't considering switching * How mid-market operators differentiate against a platform built for standardised freight * The CVSA Road Check numbers worth knowing this week — 15 inspections per minute, 72 hours, and roughly 13,000 trucks pulled off the road in a single weekend * Three practical actions for the next seven days: build pricing across the range, manage the capacity crunch proactively, and know your own number If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From planning to a single price → to building margins that work across the rangeFrom waiting for capacity to ease → to communicating before the pressure arrives at the customerFrom watching Amazon → to knowing exactly where your service complexity makes you irreplaceable The operators who are winning right now are the ones who plan for the range, not the headline. Plan for range. Communicate before the pressure arrives. Know your number.

TWIL: The Hormuz Fuel Crisis, Freight Upcycle + Amazon Supply Chain Update

#ThisWeekinLogistics, we're covering two weeks of news in one episode — because the volume of developments between late April and early May has been extraordinary. The Strait of Hormuz escalated from blockade to live fire. Amazon opened its entire logistics network to any business globally. And Q1 freight earnings confirmed what operators have been feeling on the ground — rates are up, but it's fuel and supply pressure doing the work, not demand. The question most people are still asking is when does this settle. The more useful one is what does your operation look like if it doesn't? This episode unpacks all three structural shifts and what they mean for mid-market 3PLs and transport operators right now. This week we cover: * Why the Strait of Hormuz crisis has moved from economic disruption to a permanent operating environment — and what that means for your planning assumptions * Why every fuel model built on pre-February assumptions is now structurally wrong * What Amazon Supply Chain Services actually is, who it competes with, and where mid-market operators still have a clear advantage * Why the freight upcycle is real but fragile — and how a supply-driven cycle behaves differently to a demand-driven one * Why every major parcel carrier globally is running an active fuel surcharge simultaneously for the first time ever * The mode-shift window that's open right now — and how offering options turns a provider into a logistics partner * Three practical actions for the next seven days: stress-testing your fuel model, mapping your Amazon exposure, and connecting to crisis infrastructure If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters: From waiting for normal → to planning for what's in front of youFrom riding the rate wave → to fixing your cost structure while conditions allowFrom reacting to Amazon → to knowing exactly where you compete and win The operators doing well right now aren't waiting for things to calm down. They're being disciplined because things haven't — and they're planning for that to stay the case.

TWIL: What’s Actually Happening in Logistics Right Now (with special guest Scott Murray)

Wait... what do Zoolander and self-driving delivery trucks have in common? Find out in today's Ep as we take a look at the latest logistics news — from the view of operators on the ground! In this week’s This Week in Logistics, we’re joined by special guest Scott Murray, VP of Operations at CartonCloud, to get a clear, on-the-ground view of what’s actually happening across the logistics industry right now. There’s a lot happening in the headlines — fuel volatility, cost pressure, and shifting demand — but what does that really look like inside day-to-day operations? This episode goes beyond the surface to unpack how these changes are showing up for operators, where businesses are feeling the strain, and what the best operators are doing differently to stay ahead. Because right now, the environment is less forgiving — and the gap between disciplined operators and everyone else is widening. This week we cover: * Why the current market feels “relentless” for logistics operators on the ground * How fuel volatility is forcing mid-contract pricing changes and difficult customer conversations * Why capacity isn’t the real issue — profitability is * What the best operators are doing differently, from customer selection to proactive communication * Why process discipline matters more than technology in the current environment * How to approach AI in logistics, without overcomplicating it * Why strong customer relationships are becoming a key advantage during volatility If you run a 3PL, transport operation, or warehouse, this episode will help you focus on what actually matters right now: From reacting to pressure → to understanding your true cost to serve From chasing volume → to protecting profitability and relationships Get clear on your costs, tighten your processes, and stay close to your customers — that’s what will carry operators through this period.