S2EP62 | Sensex Expiry Tomorrow. The Fed Tonight. 24000 Held | 17th June Wed

S2EP67 | 24000 Cracked On Expiry. The Floor Is Now The Ceiling | 24th June Wednesday

For three weeks, 24,000 was the floor. On expiry day it cracked. The Nifty held till 11:30, then let go straight through 24,000 and closed at the low — 23,824.10, down 278.80 (−1.16%), seven stocks up and forty-three down. The level you were buying is now the level you have to sell into. Today's read, all the numbers in one place: • Tue close: Nifty 23,824.10 (−278.80, −1.16%), range 23,784.95–24,135.50. Sensex 76,200.68 (−893.39, −1.16%). IT and metals led the fall — Infosys −3.36%, TCS −3.16%, Tata Steel −2.66%. Only four Nifty names green. • The why: global, not domestic. Korea fell ~10% Monday (circuit-breaker, chip rout), US Nasdaq −2% overnight, an everything-selloff with gold and crypto down too. • Flows: FII cash net FLAT (+₹18 Cr) on a 279-point down day; DII bought ₹680 Cr. The fall came through index futures and global beta, not cash selling. • Positioning (Pro → FII → Client): Pros flipped net short (−2,131). FII went deeper short — ~2.29 lakh contracts (added ~5,800), all three legs bearish. Client bought the dip — net long ~1.63 lakh, the crowd catching the knife. • The flip (30-Jun chain): 24,000 — the old floor — is now the biggest call wall of the month (~13.6M). Real support below is 23,500 (8.5M puts). PCR 0.78, call-heavy. • Max pain: 24,000 — the chain's magnet is still the broken floor. The whole week is a fight at that one number. • Premarket: GIFT Nifty 23,864 (+53), soft higher open. US tech −2% overnight, no help. Brent 76.41, crude a cushion. Gold under 4,100. USD/INR 94.73. India VIX 14. The plan: no expiry today, so no pin — it's an auction, a follow-through day. Sell the rallies, respect the broken level. Resistance 23,900 then 24,000; sell into it or let it prove itself. Support 23,800, 23,700, then the real floor 23,500. Only a clean reclaim and hold of 24,000 says the foreign shorts are covering. The education today: support becomes resistance. When a floor that held for weeks breaks, it flips into a ceiling — because the longs who bought it are now trapped underwater and sell into any bounce back to break-even. Their relief is your resistance. EP66 graded 3/8 — the pin thesis broke when 24,000 cracked, though the break-calls landed. Full scorecard at rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Trade the level, not the opinion. Free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], Apple Podcasts and Spotify — every trading morning at 8:30 AM IST. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL.

S2EP66 | Weekly Expiry: 24000 Floor, 24200 Ceiling, Max Pain 24100 | 23rd June Tuesday

Monday's gap-up did half its job. The Nifty held the 24,000 floor, closed up 0.37% at 24,102.90, and the IT wreck from Friday reversed clean — Tech Mahindra, Infosys and pharma led the bounce. But it stalled cold at 24,200 and faded. Now it's weekly expiry, and the chain has built the tightest room of the week. Today's read, all the numbers in one place: • Mon close: Nifty 24,102.90 (+89.80, +0.37%), range 24,073–24,168. Sensex 77,094.07 (+0.38%). IT and banks led; consumption (Asian Paints, Titan, ITC) dragged. • Flows: FII sold ₹636 Cr cash, DII bought ₹1,036 Cr — a flip from Friday. No conviction either side. • Positioning (Pro → FII → Client): Pros flipped to a small net long in index futures (+1,193) — first desk leaning up. FII still net short ~2.23 lakh contracts but covered ~3,600; hedged-bearish (long puts, short calls). Client net long 1.54 lakh, sold puts heavily — crowd bullish. • The walls (23-Jun chain): FLOOR 24,000 = 13.15M puts (biggest line). CEILING 24,200 = 13.35M calls (biggest line). ATM 24,100 balanced. PCR 0.87. • Max pain: 24,100 — exactly where we open. • Gamma flip ~24,150: above it pins toward 24,200, below 24,100 amplifies toward 24,000. • Expected move: ATM straddle ~129 → 1SD ±129 → 23,975–24,230. VIX ~13, IV ~10%. • Premarket: GIFT Nifty flat at 24,086 (−13). Global soft — US tech −1.3% overnight, Asia red. Brent 77.71, crude a cushion. USD/INR 94.68. The plan is a pin: coil 24,000–24,200, settle near 24,100. Hold 24,150 and it drifts toward the 24,200 ceiling; lose 24,100 and it slides to the 24,000 floor where you buy the dip. A clean close below 24,000 opens 23,950 then 23,900. The education today: 0DTE theta. On expiry the option you buy in the morning has a 3:30 deadline — you can be right on direction and still lose, because time decay drains it faster than the spot can move. The walls tell you where; the clock says it must get there today. EP65 graded 5/6 — every level and the band landed; only the "IT keeps dragging" call missed, because IT bounced. Full scorecard at rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Trade the level, not the opinion. Free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], Apple Podcasts and Spotify — every trading morning at 8:30 AM IST. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL.

S2EP65 | The Streak Broke On IT. 24,000 Held. Now The Gap-Up | 22nd June Monday

Five green days ended Friday — and it broke on IT alone, not the whole market. Infosys fell almost 7 percent after a global consulting giant cut its outlook, dragging TCS, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra with it. But the Nifty closed at 24,013, held the 24,000 line, and the rest of the market shrugged it off. Monday opens with a gap-up and a tailwind from Asia — and no expiry to hide behind. Foreign funds bought cash on Friday but added to a 2.26 lakh-contract short bet on the index. That's the tension: squeeze fuel if 24,000 holds, a trap if the gap-up fades. In this episode: - Why one company in Ireland repriced India's entire IT sector - The 24,000 test and what held it - The map for Monday: above 24,100 vs back under 24,000 - Education: "sell the news" — why Reliance posted a record profit, filed the Jio IPO, and still fell Track every level live and listen free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. RupeeCase is India's first systematic investing terminal. Data: NSE, BSE.

S2EP64 | Five Green Days, Then A Gap Down To 24000. Buy The Dip | 19th June Friday

Five straight green days, and now a gap down to test it. The Nifty closed at 24,168, up 82, its fifth green day and its second close above 24,000, and the Sensex settled its weekly expiry at 77,409. But this morning GIFT Nifty is pointing to an open near 24,000, about 170 points lower, dropping us right back onto the support we only just cleared. There is no expiry today, so the open interest draws the day, and the question is simple, does 24,000 hold as support. The strange part is that the gap down is not coming from a weak Wall Street, it is the opposite. Overnight the US shook off the hawkish Federal Reserve and rallied, the Nasdaq up almost 2 percent, and Asia is firm this morning, South Korea up 2.3 percent. Brent crude sits near a three-month low at 79 dollars, gold got hit hard down to 4,185, and the rupee is steady and strong near 94.3. A friendly global tape and a soft local open at the same time tells you this is our own profit-taking after five up days, not a global risk-off, the kind of dip that gets bought if support holds. With no expiry, the open interest is the map. The put writers are stacked thickest at 24,000, fresh money defending the level that capped this market for five months and has now flipped to support. But just below it the support goes thin, 23,950 is a light shelf, and the real supports are not until 23,900 and 23,800. On the upside the heaviest calls sit at 24,500, the hard resistance, while the first seller is 24,200. The put-call ratio is 1.12. The straddle is about 226 points, an expected range of roughly 23,900 to 24,400. So the plan today is a buy-on-dips plan, not a chase. We open near 24,000, so the first job is to watch it hold. Buy the dip into 24,000, and even a wick toward 23,950 is a level to lean on as long as it snaps back. Keep the stop honest, a sustained break below 23,900 and the bounce is wrong, the next stop 23,800. On the upside, take-off toward 24,150 and then the first seller at 24,200, and only a break and hold above 24,200 reopens 24,500. The simpler trade is a caution about the calm. India VIX is back near 13 and option premium has been crushed, so it looks cheap. But there is no expiry crush to catch it today, and the moment 24,000 or 24,200 breaks the calm flips fast. Do not sell premium just because it looks cheap, and let 24,000 prove itself before chasing the opening move. The twist underneath is why we gap down. After three days of buying, the foreign desk flipped and sold 855 crore of cash, their first sell in four, and they are still net short about 2.21 lakh index futures. What held the market up was the domestic funds, who bought 3,130 crore and absorbed everything single-handedly. If the foreigners keep pressing, 24,000 is tested hard and 24,200 caps the upside. If that short gets squeezed, we snap back through. Episode 63 graded 4.5 out of 5, full scorecard on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Trade the level, not the opinion. Stream the full episode free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL, US Federal Reserve.

S2EP63 | Sensex Expiry, And The Fed Turned Hawkish. 77000 Decides | 18th June Thursday

Four green days, a real breakout, and then the Fed turned hawkish overnight. On Thursday's episode of The Tanmay Edge we trade the collision. A market holding its first ever Nifty close above 24,000 and a Sensex back over 77,000, walking into Sensex weekly expiry the morning after the US Federal Reserve flipped its tone. The setup. The Sensex closed 77,155, up 347 points, its fourth straight up day. Nifty added 96 to close at 24,085, the first time it has ever closed above 24,000 after five rejections. The wall finally became a floor. The leadership was broad and cyclical, metals, defence, IT and energy out front, the private financials, Axis, Kotak and the Bajaj twins, the drag. The overhang resolved overnight, and not in the market's favour. The Federal Reserve held its rate but turned hawkish, the dot-plot now points to a hike this year rather than a cut, and Wall Street faded on it. Yet India is shrugging it off, GIFT Nifty points to a flat to soft open, barely 28 points lower. The reason is the commodity screen, Brent crude at a three-month low near 78 and a half dollars, plus a firm rupee. Cheap oil is the cushion under this breakout. Then the expiry board, where this episode lives. The put writers built the floor at 77,000, adding almost 17 and a half lakh fresh contracts there in a single day, taking it past 21 lakh. The call writers sit thickest at 77,500. The put-call ratio is 1.35, a bullish tilt. The at-the-money straddle is about 470 points, which sets a band of 76,690 to 77,625, and the one-standard-deviation range agrees, 76,570 to 77,740. And the switch, the gamma flip where the big desks move from amplifying the tape to pinning it, sits near 77,300, and we closed just beneath it, in the amplified zone, while the Nifty closed above its own switch, in the calm one. The positioning is the twist. The foreign desk bought cash a third straight day, a small 179 crore, and the domestic funds added 1,703 crore, but in the index futures the foreign desk is still short about 2.25 lakh contracts, trimmed by only 5,000, while the retail crowd sits net long. A fresh breakout while the biggest player stays short. If 77,000 holds, that short is squeeze fuel. If the hawkish Fed cracks it, the short looks smart. The plan. Hold 77,000 and the bias stays up, reclaim 77,300 and the upside opens toward 77,500, lose 77,000 and there is an air-pocket to 76,500. On the Nifty, 24,000 has flipped to support, buy dips toward it, take off into 24,200, wrong below 23,950. And size down, it is a 0DTE expiry after a hawkish Fed, India VIX is back near 13 and a half, and cheap premium into expiry is a trap. Don't chase the gap, let the level prove itself. Episode 62 graded 4.5 out of 5, full scorecard on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Stream free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL, US Federal Reserve. Trade the level, not the opinion.