S2EP73 | The Jobs Number Was Weak. The First Move Was Relief. And Today, America Is Shut | 3rd July Friday

S2Ep79 | The Breakout FIIs Finally Backed, Into A Weekend Crude Shock | Why The 24000 Gap Down Is A Dip To Buy | 13th July Monday

On Friday we finally broke out. Then over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up 4 percent and we open lower near 24000. Sounds scary. It is not. Episode 79 is a news podcast with a twist, and the read is simple: this is a dip you buy, not one you sell. The tape first. Nifty closed 24206 up 1.02 percent, the first close above 24200 in the whole move. Sensex 77569 up 1.08 percent. India VIX fell another 8 percent to 12.25, a fresh low. Broad rally: Realty led up 3.49 percent, PSU Bank up 3.03, Bank Nifty up 1.39, IT up 1.96 off the TCS beat, Metal up 1.48. Midcaps and Smallcaps up over 1.4 each. Out of the entire board only FMCG closed red. The broadest green tape of the week. Now the twist, straight from the NSE participant open interest. For the first time in a week the big money bought it with us. FIIs bought 2,603 crore of cash and DIIs added 2,020 crore, both hands buying. In futures the FIIs covered: still net short 2,54,711 index contracts but down from 2,66,251, so they bought back 11,540 shorts, covered 37,617 short calls, and trimmed puts while adding stock longs. Every leg, the hedge came off. They covered, they did not flip, still net short, but the direction is clear. Pros sit long gamma with 1,74,916 long calls and 1,22,524 long puts. Clients are short 6,29,518 index puts, the put writers who defend 24000. The weekend then flipped one of Friday's three legs. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US struck a third night, and the Iranian oil waiver was revoked. This morning Brent gapped 4 percent to 79 and GIFT Nifty is down about 205 points, pointing to an open near 24000. But watch the tells: crude stopped under 80, a contained spike not a runaway, and gold FELL more than a percent to 4072. In real fear money runs into gold, today it is leaving. That is a positioning wobble, not a panic, and the gap down lands you right on the biggest put wall on the board. The levels, from the 14 Jul BhavCopy chain into Tuesday expiry. Max pain 24200, sitting on Friday's close. Support 24000, the 105 lakh put wall, then 23800. Resistance 24300 at 94 lakh calls, then the hard wall 24500 at 141 lakh calls. Put to call ratio 1.27, put heavy and supportive. The straddle is near 197, so the expected move is about 24010 to 24405. The plan. Buy the 24000 to 23950 zone with a stop, target the reclaim of 24200 then a grind to 24300. The tell in the first hour is a reclaim of 24100 with IT holding green off HCL Tech Q1, which reports today. The invalidation is precise: a clean break below 24000 on volume, which only happens if crude runs over 80 or a fresh strait headline hits. Then stand aside, the next shelf is 23800. Keep the hedge on with VIX at 12.25. Friday, episode 78, went five out of five. We called the gap up over 24000, the hold, the grind to the 24200 cap, and IT as the swing that decides the break. All of it landed, IT led up almost 2 percent and TCS added 1.45 after the numbers. Global backdrop: US closed green Friday, Dow futures soft this morning, Asia mixed, Brent 79, Gold 4072, Dollar index 101.1, USD INR 95.32. SOURCES Data from NSE and BSE official BhavCopy and end of day reports. STREAMING Streaming free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research or consult a registered advisor. HASHTAGS #Nifty #Crude #BankNifty #OptionChain #FnO #TheTanmayEdge #StockMarketIndia #Trading #GIFTNifty #RupeeCase META Episode 79 . Season 2 . Monday 13 Jul 2026 . Runtime target 8 min . Drop 8:30 AM IST . Nifty weekly expiry Tue 14 Jul . POV buy the 24000 dip

S2Ep78 | The Tanmay Edge EP78 | Gap Up Over 24000 Into The FII Call Supply | TCS Prints A 9.5 Billion Dollar Book, IT Decides | 10th July Friday

Yesterday 24000 was resistance and we got sold right there. This morning GIFT Nifty is at 24133, a gap up of about 170 points straight over it. So the question flips from can we reach 24000 to can we hold above it. Episode 78 is a news podcast with a twist, and the twist is in the positioning. The tape first. Nifty closed 23962 up 0.34 percent, Sensex 76741 up 0.31 percent, and India VIX collapsed almost 9 percent to 13.36 as the Wednesday crash fear unwound. It was a broad market day. Realty led up 3.54 percent, Media up 2.09, Consumer Durables up 1.68, PSU Bank up 1.62, Midcaps up 1.4 and Smallcaps up 1.8. Only two sectors closed red. Auto down 0.21 and IT down 0.30. IT was the weakest sector on the board, right into the biggest result of the quarter. After the bell TCS reported. Profit 13,349 crore up almost 5 percent, revenue up 14 percent, a 9.5 billion dollar order book with an AI led SKF deal, AI revenue at a 2.6 billion dollar annual run rate, and a 12 rupee interim dividend. Strong book, with the only soft spot a 24 percent margin squeezed by the annual wage hike. The most beaten down sector in the market printed a healthy number at a six year low price. Now the twist, straight from the NSE participant open interest. FIIs sold only 533 crore of cash but stayed net short 2,66,251 index futures, barely covered from Wednesday's 2,68,586. At the same time they are net long 5,91,571 stock futures, holding 5,24,225 long index puts, and short 2,56,228 index calls. Long the stocks, hedged on the index, selling the calls overhead. Pros are net long just 16,954 index futures with balanced call and put books. Clients are net long futures, long calls, and short 6,45,560 puts, writing the support. DIIs bought another 2,058 crore of cash. The bounce is led by domestic money and put writers while the FIIs cap the index. The levels, from the 14 Jul BhavCopy chain. Resistance where the FIIs sold their calls: heaviest call open interest 24200 at 89.9 lakh contracts, then 24300 and 24000. Support at the put base: heaviest put open interest 23800 at 65.8 lakh, then 24000. 24000 is the gamma flip. Above it positive gamma dampens moves and the market grinds, below it negative gamma makes moves fast. The 14 Jul straddle is near 278 with front volatility crushed to 11.6 percent, so the expected zone into the weekend is 23800 to 24200. The plan. Open near 24100 to 24130 into the 24200 call supply. Hold above 24000 and the grind is toward 24200, but that is where the FIIs defend, so book do not chase. Lose 24000 in the first 30 minutes and it is a slide to the 23800 put base, which is the buy zone not the panic. TCS and IT are the swing. It is a Friday into the weekend with crude at 76 still the open risk, so keep the hedge on. Yesterday, episode 77, went three out of five. We called the gap up open and nailed 24000 flipping to resistance. The misses were Sensex settling 76741 not 76500, and IT lagging into TCS instead of leading. Global backdrop: Nasdaq up 1.30 percent, Nikkei up 2.09, Hang Seng up 1.46, KOSPI up 4.12. Brent 76.5, Gold 4129, Dollar index 100.6, USD INR 95.38. --- ## SOURCES Data from NSE and BSE official BhavCopy and end of day reports. ## STREAMING Streaming free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. ## DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research or consult a registered advisor. ## HASHTAGS #Nifty #TCS #BankNifty #OptionChain #FnO #TheTanmayEdge #StockMarketIndia #Trading #GIFTNifty #RupeeCase ## META Episode 78 . Season 2 . Friday 10 Jul 2026 . Runtime target 8 min . Drop 8:30 AM IST . Next Nifty weekly expiry Tue 14 Jul

S2Ep77 | Nifty Broke 24000 Support, Down 516 Points. Smart Money Bought The Fall. Sensex Expiry And TCS Q1 Today | 9th July Thursday

Yesterday the calm broke. The Nifty fell 516 points, or 2.12 percent, to close at 23882, its worst day in weeks, with only 4 of 50 stocks green. The Sensex fell 1677 points to 76503, down 2.15 percent. The fear index, India VIX, jumped almost 25 percent in a single day to 14.54, after sitting near 11 all week. When VIX moves like that, option prices rise and daily swings get bigger. The reason was oil. Brent crude jumped almost 5 percent to 77.67 dollars on an Iran and Hormuz supply scare, and the world sold off with it. Korea fell 5.65 percent, Japan 2.15 percent, and Europe closed deep red. The rupee slipped to 95.56. The 24000 support every desk had defended all week did not hold, and the Nifty went all the way down to 23805. But here is the twist, and it is in the flow data. On that red day, foreign funds bought a net 1,962.80 crore of Indian stock and domestic funds added 790.16 crore. Both were buyers into the fall. In the derivatives the pros are net long about 10,201 index futures with put protection, careful not scared. The foreign funds are short 2,68,586 index futures but long 5,77,555 single stock futures, so it is a hedge, not a crash bet. Retail, the crowd, is long 1,87,155 futures and has sold 6,28,922 put options, exposed if support breaks. Big money is hedged and buying. The crowd is exposed. This morning looks better. GIFT Nifty points to a gap up open near 23977, up 0.41 percent, so the Sensex should open near 76800. Asia turned green, Japan up 2 percent and Korea up 1.7 percent after crashing yesterday. But oil is still climbing, Brent 78.87, and the rupee is still weak, so the bounce has a headwind. Today is a double event in one session, Sensex weekly expiry and TCS first quarter results. On the Sensex option chain, resistance is at 77000 where the biggest call selling sits, then 77500, and support is at 76000, with 76500 the magnet in the middle. The straddle is priced near 780 points, the swing the market expects today. With VIX rising into expiry the magnet is weak, so this is not a day to blindly sell options. The plan is simple, sell near 77000 resistance, buy near 76000 support, and skip the chop in the middle. On the Nifty the map flipped. 24000 was support all week and is now resistance, with 24200 above it. Support is 23800, then a fast gap to 23700, and the week is priced for a range of 23500 to 24260. And the tell. The one sector that held yesterday was IT, down just 1.37 percent, and it reports today through TCS. Watch the IT reaction and let it lead. All figures are official NSE and BSE data for 8 July 2026 plus 9 July pre market prints. Free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], where every episode streams first. SOURCES (public) NSE, BSE. Official EOD close 8-Jul-2026 plus 9-Jul pre-market prints. STREAMING Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube, and live on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. DISCLAIMER Educational and informational only. Not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research or consult a registered adviser. HASHTAGS #Nifty #Sensex #TCS #Q1FY27 #Expiry #OptionsTrading #Nifty50 #BankNifty #IndiaVIX #FIIDII #StockMarketIndia #TheTanmayEdge #RupeeCase

S2EP76 | 24400 Held To The Point. Crude Broke The Calm. War is back. TCS Decides Thursday | 8th July Wed

- One Sector Held The Whole Market Up. This Morning Crude Broke The Calm. - The Map Nailed 24,400. Now A Gap-Down Meets TCS And Sensex Expiry. - 19 Of 50 Went Up. IT Carried It Alone. The Bet Is On Tomorrow's TCS. ## RSS / SHOW-NOTES DESCRIPTION (data-forward, aligned to the cut) Yesterday the Nifty settled at 24,398.70, one and a half points off 24,400, the level every options desk had defended all week. The map did not miss. But under a nearly flat index, only 19 of 50 names rose. One sector carried the whole market: IT closed up 2.43% and rose almost alone, the day before TCS reports. That is not a coincidence. That is a bet placed before the number. The close: Nifty 24,398.70, down 31.65, snapping a 4 day green run inside a tight 182 point band. The high, 24,530.90, tagged the 24,500 ceiling and settled back on 24,400. IT led with HCL Tech +3.04%, Tech Mahindra +2.86%, Infosys +2.81% and TCS +1.86%, while Realty fell 1.58%, Metal 1.10% and Pharma 0.73%. Take IT out and this was a clearly red day. Sensex 78,180.72, down 104. India VIX 11.65, still unusually calm. The desks told the real story. Foreign investors net bought 468 crore of stock on NSE, 393 crore combined, a buyer through expiry, while domestic institutions flipped to sellers at minus 383 crore after Monday's plus 3,791 crore. The pros stepped aside: they cut index futures almost to flat at net long 5,435 and bought protection back to net long 45,315 puts. The foreign index short barely moved at minus 2,38,838, covering has stalled, but their single-stock futures long grew to 6,03,692: long the shares, short the index, a hedged long book, not a bearish call. The crowd did not blink, still net long 1,64,159 index futures and short 5,14,896 puts. The fresh weekly map, for the 14 July expiry, centers on 24,400, exactly where we settled. Overhead, 24,500 is a heavy ceiling, with 51 lakh fresh calls added there, the biggest build on the board. Below, 24,300 and 24,200 are the support shelves, about 28 lakh puts each and building. The gear-change is 24,400: above it moves dampen and pin, below it they speed up toward 24,300. The week is priced for about a 270 point swing, a band near 24,130 to 24,670, volatility still under 10%. But the open changed overnight. GIFT Nifty points to a gap-down near 24,230, down 0.63%, below the 24,400 gear-change and under the 24,300 shelf. Crude jumped, Brent back to 76 dollars up 2.48%, as tension pushed back in. New York closed soft, Nasdaq off 1.16%, the DAX down 1.38%, Asia lower with Korea down 2.49% though Hong Kong turned green, so Asia is off its worst. The rupee held firm at 94.96, off the record-low watch. POV: we open below 24,300, so this is a wider mean-reversion day, not a tight box. The range is roughly 24,100 to 24,500, a stretch to 24,000 if selling has legs. Trade the edges, not the middle. Sell the rise into 24,400 to 24,500, offering just under the round number, around 24,475, not at 24,500 where the crowd rests. Buy the flush into 24,000 to 24,100, bidding just above 24,000, around 24,015. The middle, 24,200 to 24,300, is no-man's land, so stand aside. Do not build a heavy directional position into tomorrow: Thursday is a double event, Sensex weekly expiry and TCS first quarter results, in one session. Let IT lead, hold the bid and the bet is alive, give it back and the market is already voting. Data sources: NSE, BSE (official). Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. New episodes every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. Educational content only. This is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; do your own research. #Nifty #Sensex #TCS #NiftyOptions #FIIDII #OptionsData #IndianStockMarket #TheTanmayEdge #StockMarketIndia #Trading

S2Ep75 | The Support Moved Up To 24,400. The Pros Dropped Their Protection. Nifty Expiry | 7th July Tuesday

4 straight green days, and on Monday the options board physically moved its floor up under this market. Traders added 1.21 crore fresh puts at 24,400, the single biggest build anywhere on the chain, and 76 lakh more at 24,300, while the calls sitting at 24,300 evacuated. Both strikes now hold about 1.38 crore contracts each, closing in on the 24,000 anchor at 1.62 crore. Today those walls get tested, because it is Nifty weekly expiry. The settle is the story. The tape they defend: Nifty closed 24,430.35 (+0.66%), a 4th straight green day, with a high of 24,458.65, never touching 24,500. Sensex 78,285.07 (+521). India VIX 11.82. And underneath, the thinnest engine list of the move: just 24 of 50 Nifty stocks advanced. HDFC Bank +3.59% on its business update did the heavy lifting nearly alone while Kotak fell 3.89% and IT faded a 3rd straight day, with TCS reporting Thursday. Autos, realty and smallcaps (+1.14%) carried the broadening. The flows got louder. Monday's official NSDL print: foreign investors net bought +2,182 crore of equities on the exchange, a 2nd straight buying day and bigger than Friday's +1,355 crore, plus roughly 925 crore of index futures buying on the day. The positioning map turned a notch more constructive on every desk. Pro desks are net long index futures and cut their net long puts from about 1,10,000 contracts to 31,878, dropping most of their downside protection the night before expiry, quietly the most bullish shift on the board. The FII index short is down to 2,41,279 after a 3rd straight session of covering, while their single-stock futures long GREW to 5,72,044 contracts: long the shares, short the index against them, a hedged long book, not a bearish bet. The crowd is net long index futures and still short 5,13,142 puts. Nobody is positioned for a break of 24,300. This episode lays the full expiry map: the 24,000 anchor, the fresh twin put walls at 24,300 and 24,400, the 24,500 ceiling with 1.33 crore calls and the strongest pinning force on the board, the gear-change zone at 24,400 to 24,450 where moves switch from amplified to dampened, and a 24,450 straddle near 120 points pricing only a half percent settle swing. The weekly is pricing about 9.6% volatility, already below the following weeks, so option value melts fast today: a day to be paid for insurance, not to buy it. POV: the close is what counts, the whips are noise. Buy dips into 24,300 to 24,400 where sellers are paid to defend. Do not chase into 24,500 on the settle. A clean close below 24,300 changes the character: 24,200 opens, then 24,000, with the crowd's short puts as fuel. Watch the rupee at 95.39, pressing the record-low zone, and the domestic institutions' Monday print this morning. Overnight: New York green again (Nasdaq +1.12%), Asia mixed with Korea down hard, GIFT Nifty 24,552 pointing to a firm open, Brent 72.7 friendly. Data sources: NSE, BSE, NSDL (official). Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. New episodes every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. Educational content only. This is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; do your own research. #Nifty #Sensex #NiftyExpiry #FIIDII #OptionsData #IndianStockMarket #TheTanmayEdge #StockMarketIndia #Trading