Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Why Should We Care About the Chinese Embassy’s Brazen War of Words with Philippine Officials? | with Jay Tarriela

China’s embassy in Manila has launched an unprecedented public campaign against Philippine government officials. In this episode, Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela - Beijing’s primary target - explains what’s at stake when foreign embassies publicly threaten democratic voices. The controversy began when Tarriela posted images from a student presentation featuring AI-generated caricatures of Xi Jinping. China’s embassy called it “attacking and smearing Chinese leaders” and a “serious violation of China’s political dignity.” Beijing summoned the Philippine ambassador and demanded Tarriela “pay the price.” Tarriela refused to apologize, receiving backing from Philippine officials and strong public support - 94% of Filipinos support transparency efforts in the West Philippine Sea. Tarriela identifies three reasons behind Beijing’s escalation: the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026 and transparency during regional meetings could expose Chinese actions to neighboring countries; China may want to influence the 2028 Philippine election by reducing focus on West Philippine Sea issues; and transparency prevents China from executing operations like illegal reclamation without immediate international scrutiny. He describes coordination between the Chinese embassy and online accounts that amplify Beijing’s messaging with identical talking points - evidence of organized information operations. Tarriela also addresses allegations that our co-host, the SeaLight Foundation’s Ray Powell, is a U.S. agent providing him with money and instructions, while explaining why Powell’s documentation of Chinese activities across Southeast Asia challenges Beijing’s narrative. Since Tarriela’s last podcast appearance in May 2024, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have moved closer to Philippine shores, now operating near Pangasinan, Ilocos, Mindoro, and Bataan. Meanwhile, transparency efforts have achieved measurable results: Filipino awareness of West Philippine Sea issues has grown significantly, and international embassies that previously avoided naming China now publicly identify Chinese actions. Tarriela makes the case for deploying U.S. Coast Guard vessels rather than Navy warships to counter China’s gray-zone tactics, and explains why he continues speaking out despite personal attacks: “Standing up for our rights is the obligation of everybody. We owe this to our national heroes and to the next generation.” In the post-interview banter, Ray and Jim discuss how the Chinese embassy has also targeted Ray personally for SeaLight’s investigation into Chinese influence over Mandarin-language media outlets in the Philippines. They explore parallels with Australia’s experience combating similar influence operations and debate how democracies can balance freedom of the press with transparency about foreign funding and direction of media organizations. 👉 Follow Jay Tarriela on X, @jaytaryela [https://x.com/jaytaryela], or on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-tarriela-326a39114/] 👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn, [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/] or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if India is Embracing Free Trade? with Anuj Gupta

On January 27, 2026, India and the European Union are expected to announce “the mother of all trade deals” - a historic Free Trade Agreement covering 25% of the world’s GDP. After decades of protectionism, India is pivoting fast, racing to sign deals with developed economies like the EU, UAE, and Australia while diversifying away from China. But why now? And where does this leave the US under Trump 2.0? In this episode, Anuj Gupta, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia (India) and former Chief of Staff to India’s Commerce Minister, takes us inside the room where these deals happen. We discuss: • The Big Shift: Why 2014 was the turning point for India’s trade strategy and why they walked away from the RCEP trading bloc. • The Pivot: Why India is suddenly rushing to sign FTAs with the West after years of hesitation. • Geopolitics: How India balances Russian oil imports with EU trade ambitions and US strategic ties. • The Future: Is India trying to be a bridge between blocs, or becoming a “third pole” in the global economy? Whether you’re a business leader, policy watcher, or just curious about where the world economy is heading, this episode breaks down why India’s new playbook matters to you. Anuj Gupta [https://app.prowritingaid.com/Anuj%20Gupta] leads the India practice at BowerGroupAsia. A seasoned policy strategist, he previously served as Chief of Staff to India’s Minister for Commerce & Industry, where he helped shape key initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and India’s recent wave of FTAs. He has also led public policy for the Tata Group. Follow Anuj on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ganuj/] or on X, @anujg [https://x.com/anujg] • Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] • Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] • Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] • Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if Taiwan is a Political Tinderbox? | with J. Michael Cole

Is Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability China’s military or political warfare from within? J. Michael Cole—former Canadian intelligence officer, Senior Fellow with Global Taiwan Institute and author of “The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island Nation at the Center of the New Cold War”—reveals how Chinese Communist Party influence operations, Taiwan independence debates and political divisions threaten cross-strait stability more than invasion scenarios. Taiwan’s Internal Security Crisis Cole exposes how CCP proxies use cognitive warfare, espionage and co-optation to weaken Taiwan’s defense capabilities from within. Taiwan’s democracy creates a paradox: countering Chinese influence without becoming authoritarian. Opposition parties blocking defense spending increases—Taiwan aims for 5% GDP military spending—sends conflicting signals about Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense, weakening deterrence against Beijing. Taiwan Identity & Independence Movements Taiwan’s divisions trace to indigenous peoples, Japanese colonial rule (1895-1945, and post-1949 Kuomintang (KMT) arrival. Cole identifies two critical movements: Taidu (Taiwan independence) and Huadu (Republic of China supporters opposing Beijing annexation). United, they’d form a powerful defense against the Chinese pressure campaign, but real unity has been elusive. Hong Kong’s Cautionary Tale Beijing’s crushing of Hong Kong democracy under “one country, two systems” became China’s worst propaganda failure for Taiwan unification. Young Taiwanese watched personal connections to Hong Kong destroyed, solidifying opposition across the political spectrum, so that even the dovish KMT publicly rejects Chinese unification proposals. Chinese Cognitive Warfare Success While China failed to convince Taiwanese they’re Chinese—unification support remains below 5%—Beijing has succeeded at fostering divisions and increasing skepticism of America’s reliability as a defense partner. Internet content farms and co-opted politicians amplify CCP narratives from within, exploiting Taiwan democracy against itself. The Greatest Threat: Accidental Escalation Cole’s nightmare scenario isn’t invasion but normalized PLA presence near Taiwan. Chinese naval forces, drones, coast guard and maritime militia crowding Taiwan’s waters increase collision and miscommunication risks. Beijing stands ready to exploit incidents through disinformation, blame Taiwan, and then escalate in unpredictable ways. Taiwan’s Defense Strategy Evolution Taiwan has shifted from passive defense to counter-force capabilities: domestically produced anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles targeting China. This has required US approval, marking a major US Taiwan relations policy shift. Taiwan now emphasizes semiconductor supply chain criticality and first island chain security to make conflict consequences resonate globally. Why Taiwan’s Democracy Matters Cole’s 20-year Taiwan residence reflects the island’s resilience: a vibrant democracy thriving under constant Chinese military threat, successful despite isolation, and a model for defending democratic values without authoritarianism. 👉 Follow J. Michael Cole [https://globaltaiwan.org/member/j-michael-cole/] at the Global Taiwan Institute or on X at @jmichaelcole1 [https://x.com/JMichaelCole1] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care About the India Trump Made? | with James Crabtree

The U.S.-India partnership has been a cornerstone of American Indo-Pacific strategy for two decades, but it’s now facing its most serious crisis. After bipartisan American efforts to bring India into closer partnership as a counterweight to China, President Trump has triggered the most dramatic deterioration in U.S.-India relations in a generation. What began with optimism in Delhi about Trump 2.0 has devolved into a breakdown of trust, escalating tariffs, and diplomatic miscalculation that threatens the entire architecture of Indo-Pacific security. In this essential episode, hosts Ray Powell (former U.S. military officer) and Jim Carouso (former U.S. diplomat) welcome back James Crabtree - distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, former Financial Times bureau chief for India, and author of the acclaimed book “The Billionaire Raj.” Drawing on his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The India That Trump Made,” Crabtree unpacks how two decades of strategic partnership have been upended in less than a year. What Happened? India expected favorable treatment from Trump given Modi’s strong personal relationship with the president during his first term. Instead, they received 50% tariffs - first 25% on general goods, then another 25% for buying Russian oil, putting India’s tariff burden equal to China’s. Then came the Pakistan crisis: when India and Pakistan clashed in Operation Sindor, Trump claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire that India insists he didn’t actually broker. Trump’s perceived slight over not receiving sufficient credit has fueled ongoing tensions, while Pakistan successfully leveraged the moment through crypto deals, a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Trump, and high-level military diplomacy. Strategic Consequences The Quad, the critical U.S.-Australia-India-Japan partnership, is essentially stalled, with a planned summit canceled and little energy for revival. India is now pursuing what Crabtree calls a “pivot to Europe,” seeking to replace American technology transfer, investment, and defense expertise with European alternatives. An EU-India summit in January will likely announce a long-negotiated trade deal, marking India’s shift toward multi-alignment rather than U.S. partnership. Meanwhile, Pakistan has successfully re-emerged as a regional player, signing security treaties with Saudi Arabia that include nuclear assurances and repositioning itself diplomatically after years in India’s shadow. Russia remains a “diminishing asset” for India due to supply unreliability and limited technological offerings, though Delhi still needs Moscow for defense systems like the S-400 and to prevent Russia from becoming a complete Chinese vassal state. India’s Future Despite the diplomatic turbulence, India posted 8% GDP growth last quarter and remains on a positive economic trajectory, though still a developing country at $2,000-3,000 per capita income. Prime Minister Modi, now in his third term and 11 years in office, continues to dominate Indian politics and will likely seek a fourth term, cementing his status as the most significant political figure in independent Indian history. India’s “Make in India” defense ambitions are advancing slowly, with systems like the BrahMos missile finding export success in Southeast Asia, though India remains heavily import-dependent for military hardware. Can U.S.-India trust be rebuilt? Crabtree is pessimistic: “The trust that had been built up between the U.S. and India over a two-decade period has been destroyed”. The pro-American camp in Delhi that architected the strategic partnership has been undermined, while pro-Russia voices feel vindicated. 👉 Follow James Crabtree on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamescrabtree2000/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

EMERGENCY EPISODE: Why Should We Care if America Just Deposed Venezuela’s Dictator? | with Col. (Ret) Michael Burgoyne and Dr. Robert Burrell

In Episode 122, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Dr. Robert Burrell, retired US Marine Corps officer and irregular warfare specialist, and Colonel (Ret.) Michael Burgoyne, University of Arizona professor and former Army attaché in Mexico, to analyze the unprecedented US military operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The experts explore the operation’s implications for the Indo-Pacific, US foreign policy, and the international rules-based order. The Venezuela Operation: A New Precedent Burrell and Burgoyne dissect the extraordinary special operations mission that extracted Maduro in just two and a half hours. The guests explain how three decades of authoritarian rule under Hugo Chávez and Maduro created a nexus between China, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in America’s hemisphere. The 2024 election, won by opposition candidate Edmundo González, was rigged by Maduro, prompting the Trump administration’s decisive action led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Legal and Strategic Implications The discussion examines the operation’s framing as a law enforcement action under foreign terrorist organization designations - a controversial use of Article 2 presidential powers without Congressional authorization. Burgoyne warns this unilateral approach abandons post-WWII hemispheric cooperation frameworks like the Organization of American States Charter and the “Good Neighbor Policy,” returning instead to early 20th-century interventionism reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. Indo-Pacific Connections The experts draw critical parallels for Indo-Pacific allies who depend on international law and the rules-based order. Countries like Japan, the Philippines, and Australia may question US commitment to multilateral norms, while adversaries like China could exploit the precedent to justify their own unilateral actions. Brazil and other regional powers are already diversifying partnerships with China and BRICS nations, concerned about unpredictable US interventionism and trade policy. What Comes Next? With Maduro’s vice president maintaining control in Caracas and the regime apparatus intact, the guests outline scenarios ranging from peaceful opposition transition to Libya-style state collapse. They emphasize Venezuela’s complexity: three decades of corruption, transnational criminal organizations, and a population unfamiliar with democracy. Best-case scenarios require international cooperation and long-term US commitment - both uncertain given the operation’s unilateral nature. The episode concludes with sobering assessments about narrative control, regional stability, and whether this operation serves as prologue to regime change efforts in Cuba and Nicaragua. 👉 Follow Rob Burrell on his web site, robertburrell.com [http://robertburrell.com], or at his Substack [https://robertburrell.substack.com/] 👉 Follow Mike Burgoyne on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/miburgoyne/] 👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn, [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/] or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/]