Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

In Ep. 108, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview CNN Tokyo correspondent Hanako Montgomery about the historic election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister, exploring her background, conservative policies, and the geopolitical challenges she faces amid rising regional tensions and domestic economic woes. The discussion highlights Takaichi's rise: how she broke through Japan's traditional patriarchal barriers, and how she will navigate its complex domestic politics and the rapidly changing Indo-Pacific geostrategic picture. Sanae Takaichi, formerly the economic security minister, emerged as Japan's fourth prime minister since Shinzo Abe's 2020 departure, marking a milestone as the country's first woman in the role despite Japan's low G7 ranking in gender parity. Unlike many politicians who come from dynasties, her background includes a TV anchor career in the mid-1990s, where she discussed politics and society, while her parents were a police officer and a car company worker. Known for her colorful personality (including a love for motorcycles and heavy metal music), she is a self-described workaholic and Abe protégé, advocating conservative stances like revising Japan's pacifist constitution, boosting defense spending to 2% of GDP, and opposing same-sex marriage. Takaichi's election comes during a period of turmoil for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which lost its parliamentary majority in recent elections amid scandals like unreported slush funds and ties to controversial groups linked to Abe's assassin. The long-dominant LDP now relies on a new coalition, creating an identity crisis between its conservative roots and younger reformers. Her "Sanaenomics"--looser fiscal policies, increased government spending, and inflation relief via billions in subsidies for household items--differs from Abenomics but faces hurdles from her coalition's fiscally conservative views and Japan's demographic crisis, including low birth rates and immigration crackdowns. Markets reacted positively with the Nikkei 225 hitting records post-election, but the yen also weakened, signaling investor excitement tempered by fiscal risks. Takaichi inherits a fraught Indo-Pacific landscape, with her hawkish views on China, including criticisms of its militarization, espionage by Chinese residents, and even ugly tourist behavior, drawing Beijing's ire via state media warnings that Japan is at a "crossroads." Her April Taiwan visit, pushing defense and economic ties without U.S. centrality, has heightened tensions, though economic interdependence may prompt pragmatic diplomacy during upcoming APEC and ASEAN meetings. Takaichi previously vowed female representation in her cabinet but appointed only two women, emphasizing qualifications over gender in a male-dominated field, surprising some observers. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher abound for her symbolic strength as a first female leader; however, there are policy differences between the two. Takaichi's tenure could reshape Japan's role amid uncertainties about U.S. commitment and China's assertiveness in areas such as the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, with public support growing for constitutional revision and defense hikes due to perceived threats. Her success hinges on economic delivery--tackling inflation and wages--while balancing alliances. 👉 Follow Hanako on X, @HanakoMontgome1 [https://x.com/HanakoMontgome1] 👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay] 👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/]

In this episode, acclaimed Filipino filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss her documentary, "Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea"—a film Beijing tried repeatedly to block inside the Philippines and internationally. Villarama shares her perspective on the struggle of Filipino fisherfolk and defenders facing intimidation on the region’s contested waters, and how their experience holds urgent lessons for food security, truth, and sovereignty across the Indo-Pacific. A story bigger than borders: Villarama frames the West Philippine Sea not merely as a local dispute, but as a global issue involving food security and human dignity—where what happens to Filipino fishermen and their defenders ripples far beyond the region. Courage and resistance on the water: Her documentary spotlights Arnel Satam, whose David-versus-Goliath confrontations with China’s bullying paramilitary vessels epitomize the bravery and resolve of ordinary Filipinos under threat. Suppressed but not silenced: Repeated efforts to ban and discredit the documentary—in Manila and abroad—reflect real-world campaigns to silence stories that threaten powerful interests, but these actions have also served to attract even more attention and support. Funding and independence: Villarama explains how her team navigated the challenges of independent filmmaking in the Philippines, relying on grassroots backing and remaining free from government support, thus reinforcing the film’s authenticity and local perspective. Solidarity and the Streisand effect: She notes that pushback from China and “silent treatment” at home only amplified interest; acts of censorship drew more eyes and allies. Beyond politics—human connections: Villarama emphasizes that the heart of the story is about protecting livelihoods, identity, and the truth itself. She advocates seeing the sea as something that connects, not divides, and urges mutual respect between neighbors. Military and daily life on the edge: The film, as described by Villarama, captures the harsh realities of Filipino military postings on remote outposts, documenting both logistical struggles and profound patriotism that contrasts sharply with China's well-supported installations. Expanding the narrative: Despite obstacles, Villarama shares that “Food Delivery” has screened at over 80 venues, launched an Oscar campaign, and plans to continue sharing the fisherfolk's story worldwide—inviting communities everywhere to reflect on their own fight for truth and home. Takeaway message for global audiences: According to Villarama, defending truth and dignity is everyone’s responsibility: when one story is lost, the world’s humanity is diminished. She calls on viewers to see themselves in the struggle and to protect our “one sea, one world” for the sake of all. 👉 For screening details, follow “Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea” on Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/FoodDeliveryFresh] and Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/fooddeliveryfresh/] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/] 👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay] 👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/]

Veteran journalist Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack how China’s economic rise is remaking alliances and perceptions throughout the Global South, and assesses the real stakes for prosperity and stability as competition intensifies. China is setting new international standards: As U.S. influence recedes, China’s growing economic power is shifting global norms in technology, governance, and more. Global South nations seek stability, not ideology: According to Olander, most countries in the region prioritize practical gains and development models, finding appeal in China’s modernization without Westernization. Leadership contested: China, India, and Indonesia are among the Indo-Pacific’s competitors for influence as champions of the Global South, but no single country truly “leads”; instead, nations want self-determined prosperity. Concerns about Chinese power are real but muted: Territorial disputes matter, but most regional players hedge by forging new partnerships—like Japan and the Philippines—while doubting U.S. reliability. The “debt trap myth”: Olander believes Chinese lending is generally profit-driven, not a conspiracy to seize strategic assets; governance failures, not Chinese ambition, explain crises like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port. China’s economic model is both a boon and a barrier: While cheap Chinese exports drive growth, they also make it harder for poorer countries to move up the value chain. Digital and surveillance technology goes global: Olander says that China exports electronic surveillance tools widely, but so do other nations; countries choose models that fit their own priorities around sovereignty and economic development. Rivalries today differ from the Cold War: The U.S.–China competition is less binary than the U.S.–Soviet rivalry of the past, with most Global South leaders aiming for balanced relationships rather than forced choices. Latin America’s ties with China are deepening: Resources, markets, and political influence flow in both directions, shaping the region and U.S. trade policy. Olander’s unique view is that, beyond power politics or ideology, China’s appeal in the Global South rests on its ability to deliver tangible improvements without imposing its values. He highlights how these countries view great power engagement not as a zero-sum rivalry, but as an opportunity to chart their own paths to modernization and stability. 👉 Follow Eric Olander on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/olander/] or X, @eric_olander [https://x.com/eric_olander], or visit the China Global South Project [https://chinaglobalsouth.com/]. 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/]

North Korean defector and human rights advocate Timothy Cho joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso for a deeply personal account of his life in and escape from North Korea. He recounts his childhood poverty, four imprisonments, harrowing escape, and ultimate rescue that finally brought him to freedom. His story reveals North Korea's total information control, systemic persecution, and brutal detention conditions, while also highlighting the power of compassion, civil society, and diplomacy to intervene. Total information blackout: North Korea remains the only country without internet, cross-border communication, or social media—25 million people completely isolated from the outside world. Childhood indoctrination and famine: Timothy grew up worshiping the Kim family from infancy. His parents fled the country during the starvation that swept the country in the 1990s, which led him to being labeled "enemy class" for their defection. First escape and capture: After crossing the river into China, Timothy experienced shock at the open markets and fashionable clothes he saw there. However, he fled in terror from Christian missionaries who wanted to help, as he had absorbed many years of propaganda that painted religion as barbaric. Prison hell: After he was arrested at the Mongolian border, Timothy was sent to North Korean detention cells so overcrowded that detainees couldn't lie down. He witnessed death, torture, forced abortions, and other traumas that left him deeply scarred. Second crossing: Assisted by his grandmother to escape a second time, he was wrapped in plastic for another river crossing into China, where he found unexpected help from strangers. Rescue: After a 13-year-old student's email sparked international media coverage of the plight of North Korean refugees, public protests and diplomatic pressure led China to deport Timothy and eight others to the Philippines. Today's advocacy: Today Timothy serves as Secretariat of the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea, speaking at the UN and urging sustained attention to the "voiceless" millions under DPRK repression. North Korea's unique isolation underpins mass repression through complete information control. The regime punishes families of defectors, while detention is often lethal by design. However, civil society and diplomatic action can save lives—one student's message triggered multilateral intervention. Of 34,000 estimated escapees, most remain fearfully silent to protect themselves and loved ones still inside. 👉 Follow Timothy Cho on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothy-cho-51687b229/] and Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/timothycho2022/?hl=en] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or BlueSky [https://bsky.app/profile/indopacpodcast.bsky.social] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/]

In this compelling episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Shannon Brandao – attorney, Mandarin speaker, and founder of the China Boss Substack – to explore China's expanding influence even as America appears to turn inward. Broadcasting from Europe, Brandao delivers her unique insights on Chinese Communist Party strategy, economic challenges, and geopolitical ambitions. Brandao emphasizes that perception easily becomes reality, in that when America appears to withdraw, China seizes opportunities to expand influence through economic leverage and promises of stability. This directly impacts Indo-Pacific supply chains controlling critical minerals, batteries, and essential products that Americans depend on daily. Rejecting claims that China seeks only regional stability, Brandao explains that the Chinese Communist Party operates from a paranoia that requires control to ensure regime survival. Under Xi Jinping, ruling "red aristocrats" fear vulnerability to external powers, and even successful Chinese entrepreneurs like Jack Ma, leading to enterprise nationalization and tight party control over innovation. While China faces economic headwinds, including debt, demographic challenges, and declining GDP, Xi Jinping has successfully modernized the military. Still, China's unreliable economic statistics mask systemic problems, with Communist Party interference undermining potential innovation, even despite a tremendous national talent base. China exercises strength in strategic sectors—solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence—through massive subsidies, but this creates a chronic overcapacity problem. Local government subsidies benefit politically connected firms like Huawei, creating quasi-monopolies across industries: steel, aluminum, cement, telecom gear, plastics, fertilizers, construction equipment, etc. Endemic corruption further dilutes programs, with billions disappearing from AI innovation funds. Companies attempting to leave China face complex challenges. When signaling departure, employees report to Party and government officials, triggering shakedowns through exit bans and extortionate demands. Recent surveys show companies staying but withholding investment and hedging elsewhere. For firms that do leave, repatriating profits and protecting intellectual property depends entirely on relationships with local government officials. Asked for what advice she would give to President Trump before meeting Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit, Brandao warns that Xi will use flattery while masking the geopolitical reality, and that failing to press American interests in the Indo-Pacific creates vacuums China eagerly fills. 👉 Follow the “China Boss” Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/shannon-brandao/] or on her Substack [https://shannonbrandao.substack.com/] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/] 👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/] 👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific