Carnegie Politika Podcast

How Is Central Asia Weathering the Iran War?

Central Asia’s countries have been the focus of increased attention since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They have been involved in parallel imports, feeding the Kremlin’s war economy, but have also hosted thousands of anti-war refugees from Russia and occasionally demonstrated support for Ukraine, despite Moscow’s ire. Now, with the war in Iran unfolding on their doorstep, the five states must navigate new challenges while not alienating the major local players—Russia and China—and further afield, the United States. What are the risks and opportunities for Central Asia from the Iran war? How is the region navigating Trump’s volatility? How are Russia and China competing and cooperating in Central Asia, and what is the region’s approach to managing the Beijing-Moscow axis?

How Is the Iran War Affecting Russia? With Nicole Grajewski and Sergey Vakulenko

At the center of the new war in the Middle East is one of Russia’s most important partners in its struggle against the West: Iran. Despite strategic agreements with Tehran, Moscow is not bound by a treaty alliance with Iran—and is also consumed by its own costly war against Ukraine. Accordingly, the Kremlin has provided the Iranian regime with limited assistance, but hopes to reap greater benefits from the second-order effects of the chaos in the Middle East unleashed by Trump. How does the war affect Russia both in the Middle East and globally? How do volatile oil prices benefit the Russian war machine, and how long will the effect of this new war last for Russia?

How the South Caucasus Is Navigating a Turbulent World

Following the initiation of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan last summer, there is still a long way to go before the conclusion of a formal agreement and sustainable peace in the region. In the wake of a visit by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and a plethora of signed agreements, the South Caucasus finds itself less and less dependent on a previous regional hegemon: Russia. What does this mean for the region? What obstacles remain on the road to a full-fledged peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Check out the paper here [https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/research/2025/12/armenia-azerbaijan-regulations].

What to Expect From the Russian Economy in 2026

The Russian economy has been under intense pressure from sanctions, the demands of war, and structural challenges. Still, it isn’t collapsing, despite predictions and wishful thinking on the part of the West. How healthy is the Russian economy, and how much strain can it handle in 2026?

Transatlantic Tensions, the Russia Threat, and Davos, With Gideon Rachman

This year’s World Economic Forum took place amid turbulent transatlantic relations. Donald Trump has renewed his plans for “getting” Greenland, threatening to annex part of a NATO ally. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages on, while the peace talks have stalled. What is the state of the European discussion on relations with the U.S.? Can Europe support Ukraine while managing its own domestic challenges and a volatile U.S. foreign policy? What are Western leaders thinking in terms of their Russia strategy?