SMPL Stock: Simply Good Foods Beat Earnings but Sales Fell — Cheap Turnaround or Value Trap?

SMPL Stock: Simply Good Foods Beat Earnings but Sales Fell — Cheap Turnaround or Value Trap?

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Q3 FY2026 — Simply Good Foods (Quest, Atkins, OWYN) beat with adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.35, but net sales fell 6% to $357M, an $82M impairment drove a GAAP loss of $(0.58), Atkins collapsed 24.6%, and full-year guidance implies a down year. Simply Good Foods has fallen ~62% from ~$34 to ~$13. It's cheap (~6x EV/EBITDA), cash-generative, and squarely in the protein-snacking megatrend with founder Joe Scalzo back as CEO — but sales and margins are falling, Atkins is collapsing, OWYN is stalling, and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a real overhang. Our DCF lands ~$12 vs the ~$13 price, so this is a show-me HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, SHOW-ME TURNAROUND) — base-case value ~$12 vs ~$13 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: net sales $357M (-6.3%); adjusted EPS $0.42 (beat $0.35, but -18% YoY); GAAP EPS $(0.58) on an $82M impairment - Brands: Quest $230.3M (+1.1%), Atkins $84.6M (-24.6% collapsing), OWYN $34.8M (+3.6% net sales but takeaway -1.3%) - Gross margin 32.5% (-390 bps); adjusted EBITDA $57.2M (-22.5%, 16% margin); marketing spend up ~16% - Balance sheet: $124M cash vs $400M term debt (net debt $276M, 1.2x EBITDA); YTD FCF ~$110M; no dividend; $213M buybacks YTD - FY26 guidance: net sales ~$1.35B (-6% to -7%), adjusted EBITDA ~$220-225M (-19% to -21%) — a down year; Q4 softer - Founder Joe Scalzo returned as CEO Jan 2026 — the turnaround is one quarter old with no proof yet - Valuation ~$13 (down ~62% from ~$34), ~6x EV/EBITDA, ~12x P/FCF — cheap only if the decline bottoms - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$110M FCF, -4%/+1%, 9-11%): ~$12 fair value vs ~$13 price — essentially fair, wide range - Central debate: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs — demand destruction for snacks vs. GLP-1 users needing more protein What to watch: the OWYN retail takeaway trend, Quest's velocity, and real-world evidence on how GLP-1 is affecting protein snacking Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

AZZ Stock: The Boring Industrial That Beat, Raised Guidance, and Jumped 7%

AZZ Inc. (AZZ) Q1 FY2027 — AZZ — North America's largest independent hot-dip galvanizer — grew Q1 sales 6.3% to a record $448.5M, beat with adjusted EPS of $1.85, raised full-year guidance on all three metrics, and hiked its dividend 20%; the stock jumped ~7% after hours. AZZ is a high-margin, essential industrial — galvanizing and coil coating that keeps steel from rusting — riding an infrastructure and reshoring tailwind. Q1 was a clean beat, it raised guidance across the board, deleveraged to 1.4x, and hiked the dividend 20%. At ~21x forward with our DCF near $155 vs the ~$144 pre-pop price (plus free optionality from its AVAIL stake), this is a quality-industrial-at-a-fair-price BUY. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, QUALITY INDUSTRIAL) — base-case value ~$155 vs ~$144 today. KEY METRICS: - Q1 FY27: sales $448.5M (+6.3%, a Q1 record); adjusted EPS $1.85 (+3.9%, beat $1.69); adjusted EBITDA $99.5M (22.2% margin) - GAAP EPS $1.72 (-70%) is optical — prior year had a ~$166M one-time gain from the AVAIL/electrical-business sale - Segments: Metal Coatings $210.3M (+12.3%, 30%+ EBITDA margin); Precoat Metals $238.2M (+1.5%, margin rising) - Net leverage 1.4x, guiding $130-170M more debt reduction in FY27; dividend raised 20% to $0.24/quarter - FY27 guidance RAISED on all three: sales $1.80-1.85B, adjusted EBITDA $375-415M, adjusted EPS $6.75-7.15 - Minority AVAIL JV stake excluded from guidance = free optionality on top of the core coatings business - Valuation ~$144 pre-pop (jumped ~7% AH), ~20-21x forward P/E, ~12x EV/EBITDA — reasonable for the quality - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$175M FCF, +4%/+6%, 8-10%): ~$155 fair value vs ~$144 pre-pop — a modest margin of safety - Demand drivers: infrastructure spending + reshoring; the main risk is a cyclical construction slowdown What to watch: Metal Coatings (galvanizing) volumes and margins, the pace of debt reduction, and the broader construction / infrastructure cycle Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

PSMT Stock: The ’Costco of Latin America’ Keeps Compounding — But Is It Too Expensive?

PriceSmart (PSMT) Q3 FY2026 — PriceSmart grew Q3 revenue 12.5% to ~$1.48B with comparable sales up 10.7%, but adjusted EPS of $1.28 landed just short of the ~$1.32 estimate and the stock — near an all-time high at ~37x earnings — dipped slightly. PriceSmart is the 'Costco of Latin America' — 57 membership warehouse clubs across 12 countries, a sticky membership annuity, a net-cash balance sheet, and a long unit-growth runway (now entering Chile). It's a genuinely wonderful business. But near an all-time high at ~37x earnings, our DCF lands around $150 vs the ~$189 price — so this is a great-business-at-a-rich-price HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, GREAT BUSINESS, RICH PRICE) — base-case value ~$150 vs ~$189 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: total revenue $1,481.8M (+12.5%); net merchandise sales +12.5% (+8.5% constant currency) - Comparable merchandise sales +10.7% (+6.9% constant currency) — FX was a tailwind of ~3.8 pts - Net income $39.7M (+12.9%); GAAP diluted EPS $1.28 — a slight miss vs ~$1.32 consensus (revenue beat) - Operating income $65.6M (+16.7%); adjusted EBITDA $90.4M; membership income $25.7M (+17.6%) - 57 warehouse clubs in 12 countries; first-ever Chile club announced (spring 2027); pipeline to 63 clubs - Balance sheet: $200M+ cash + investments vs ~$183M debt (net cash); dividend yield <1%; self-funds growth - Valuation ~$189, ~37x earnings, near all-time highs (52-wk high ~$200); cheaper than Costco (~50x) - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$165M, +4%/+6%, 8-10%): ~$150 fair value vs ~$189 price — a ~20% premium - Risks: emerging-market currency swings (double-edged), thin retail margins, a premium multiple near highs What to watch: constant-currency comparable sales (the real growth gauge), the pace of new club openings (including Chile), and the Latin American currency backdrop Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

LEVI Stock: Levi Strauss Beat and Raised Guidance — So Why Did It Drop 5%?

Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q2 FY2026 — Levi Strauss beat on Q2 sales (+8% to $1.56B) and adjusted EPS ($0.28, +27%), raised full-year guidance for the fourth straight time and hiked its dividend 14% — yet the stock fell ~5% because the raised EPS midpoint (~$1.49) landed just below the most bullish estimates after a near-double off the lows. Levi's has transformed into a DTC-led denim-lifestyle brand — direct-to-consumer is now 51% of revenue, gross margin is near record at 63%, and it just posted its fourth straight guidance raise. But after nearly doubling to ~$24 (near 52-week highs, ~16.5x forward), our DCF lands right at ~$25 fair value — so this is a quality-at-a-fair-price HOLD, not a bargain. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIRLY VALUED) — base-case value ~$25 vs ~$24 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 FY26: net revenue $1,562M (+8% reported, +6% organic); adjusted EPS $0.28 (+27%) — a clear beat - Gross margin 62.7% (near record, +10 bps); adjusted operating margin 9.0% (+70 bps) - DTC grew +11% and is now 51% of revenue (e-commerce +19%); wholesale +5% - Regions: Americas $815M (+9%), Asia +12% organic, Europe +4% (timing), Beyond Yoga +16% - H1 operating cash flow ~$482M (more than doubled); dividend raised 14% (~2.5% yield) + accelerated buyback - FY26 guidance RAISED (4th straight): revenue +7-7.5%, adjusted EPS $1.46-1.52; assumes 30% China tariffs - Valuation ~$24, ~16.5x forward P/E — fair for the quality, no longer a deep-value bargain (~$18 at the lows) - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$560M, +2%/+4%, 8-10%): ~$25 fair value vs ~$24 price — essentially in line - Bear risks: stock doubled and near highs, full multiple, discretionary apparel, tariff + FX headwinds What to watch: the DTC / e-commerce growth rate (the margin engine), the gross margin under tariffs, and the pace of future guidance raises Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

HELE Stock: Helen of Troy Fell 80% and Beat Earnings — So Why Did It Drop 10%?

Helen of Troy (HELE) Q1 FY2027 — Helen of Troy — owner of OXO, Hydro Flask, Osprey and Vicks — grew Q1 sales +8% and beat a rock-bottom estimate, but adjusted EPS fell 58% to $0.17 and the stock dropped ~10% to ~$25, down over 80% from its peak. Helen of Troy trades at roughly 7x forward earnings after an 80%+ collapse — a portfolio of genuinely good brands wrapped in ~3.5x leverage, tariff exposure and a botched restructuring. Our DCF lands near $30 vs the ~$25 price, but adjusted earnings are still falling, so this is a deep-value HOLD, not a confident buy. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, CHEAP BUT UNPROVEN) — base-case value ~$30 vs ~$25 today. KEY METRICS: - Q1 FY27: net sales $402.1M (+8.2%, organic +7.4%); adjusted EPS $0.17 (down 58% YoY) — a beat on a low bar - GAAP EPS $1.51 was inflated ~$1.74 by a one-time facility-sale gain; adjusted operating margin just 4.0% - Adjusted EBITDA ~$25.5M (flat in dollars); gross margin 46.0% (-110 bps on tariffs/mix) - Segments: Home & Outdoor $194.9M (+9.5%, profit up); Beauty & Wellness $207.2M (+7%, profit -48%) - Balance sheet: ~$716M debt vs $22M cash; net leverage ~3.5x EBITDA; paid down $65M in the quarter - FY27 guidance: revenue RAISED to $1.76-1.83B, adjusted EPS HELD at $3.25-3.75 (tariffs eating the upside) - Valuation ~$25, ~7x forward P/E and ~6.5x EV/EBITDA vs 10-14x for a stable peer; pays no dividend - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$85M FCF, -3%/+3%, 11-13%): ~$30 fair value; bear case (~$24) sits at the price - Bear risks: Project Pegasus restructuring shortfall + shareholder litigation, tariffs, soft discretionary demand, leverage What to watch: the adjusted operating margin (is the decline bottoming?), the net-leverage ratio (progress below 3x), and the tariff / refund picture Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.