Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs Bonfim | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 44

UFC Vegas 118 lands at the APEX this week with a former welterweight champion looking to stop the bleeding against a rising contender riding serious momentum. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com [http://FightingWithNumbers.com]. ---------------------------------------- Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Vegas 118 Preview 02:53 Analyzing the Undercard Fights 06:42 Co-Main Event Breakdown: Allen vs. Shahbazyan 09:32 Main Event Discussion: Muhammad vs. Bonfim 14:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

UFC Macau: Song vs Figueiredo | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 43

The UFC is back from a week off and so is Fighting With Numbers. This week the promotion heads to Macau for an early morning card — 4AM Eastern for those of us stateside. Rob breaks down two fights through the model, including a light heavyweight matchup where the numbers are lopsided enough to hunt props over the moneyline, and a main event featuring a former two-time flyweight champion whose decline is written all over the data. Short pod, clear model sides, and a prop market worth paying attention to before fight night. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com [http://FightingWithNumbers.com]. Chapters 00:00 Fighting with Numbers Returns 01:46 UFC Macau Preview: Co-Main Event Breakdown 05:41 Main Event Analysis: Song vs Figgy 09:28 Conclusion

UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs Costa | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 42

UFC Vegas 117 brings a lean APEX card to close out the stretch before the UFC takes a week off — and Fighting With Numbers marks one year of the podcast. Rob breaks down three fights through the model. Plus — Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano is happening this weekend and yes, we're going to talk about it. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo [https://x.com/TheRobbeo] and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com [http://FightingWithNumbers.com]. 00:00 Celebrating One Year of Fighting With Numbers 01:24 UFC Vegas 117 Preview: Key Fights and Predictions 05:57 Analyzing Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana 10:20 Do Ho Choi's Comeback and Matchup with Daniel Santos 13:35 Main Event Breakdown: Arnold Allen vs. Melky Costa 16:54 Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano: A Nostalgic Showdown 22:00 Wrap-Up and Future Insights

UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 41

UFC 328 is headlined by a middleweight title fight with some genuine bad blood behind it — Khamzat Chimaev defends his belt against Sean Strickland, who gets his third shot at middleweight gold. Rob breaks down four fights on the card through the model. Plus a full performance update on the season — where the tiers stand, where the betting record sits, and an honest look at the regression that's arrived over the last few weeks. The process holds. Let's get into it. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo, get full written breakdowns and model reports along with a full season dashboard at FightingWithNumbers.com [http://FightingWithNumbers.com]. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Performance Overview 04:23 Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki 08:40 King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens 11:33 Fight Previews: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta 15:32 Main Event Preview: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs Prates | Bets & Predictions | FWN Ep. 40

The UFC heads to Perth, Australia this week for a card that has most of us in the States setting a 1AM alarm. Rob breaks down three fights through the model — including a main event featuring a former welterweight champion looking to remind everyone who he is, a veteran grappler on a skid facing a tough road back, and a flyweight matchup where the model finds something the odds aren't reflecting. Plus — big news this week. FightingWithNumbers.com [http://FightingWithNumbers.com] is officially live. The full site is up and running with model data, breakdowns, and more. Go check it out. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com [http://FightNumbers.Substack.com]. ---------------------------------------- Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Milestones 00:22 Reviewing Last Week's Predictions 01:52 UFC Perth Preview and Fight Breakdown 08:21 Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg Analysis 12:58 Main Event: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates 17:39 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies