Is Russia the Unintended Winner of Trump’s Iran War?

Is Russia the Unintended Winner of Trump’s Iran War?

There’s little doubt that the conflict in Iran has hurt much of the world economy. But not Russia. Data suggests that the Kremlin has already made billions of dollars in additional oil revenue since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. But beyond just cash, how much will this change President Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy? And what does this mean for the fate of the war in Ukraine? Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins FP Live to explain how Russia is navigating a moment of particular global flux. Plus, Ravi offers his read on U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing. Christian Caryl: Vladimir Putin Is Much Weaker Than You Think [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/07/russsia-ukraine-war-putin-zelensky-victory-parade-attacks-drones-moscow/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=cnVzc3NpYS11a3JhaW5lLXdhci1wdXRpbi16ZWxlbnNreS12aWN0b3J5LXBhcmFkZS1hdHRhY2tzLWRyb25lcy1tb3Njb3c=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Sean Wiswesser: Don’t Fall for Rumors of Putin’s Weakness [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/12/russia-putin-opposition-war-ukraine-fsb-security-services-dissidents-dissent-dictator-authoritarianism/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=cnVzc2lhLXB1dGluLW9wcG9zaXRpb24td2FyLXVrcmFpbmUtZnNiLXNlY3VyaXR5LXNlcnZpY2VzLWRpc3NpZGVudHMtZGlzc2VudC1kaWN0YXRvci1hdXRob3JpdGFyaWFuaXNt&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Keith Johnson: Russia Is Making Bank on Trump’s Iran War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/21/russia-oil-prices-putin-trump-iran-war/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=cnVzc2lhLW9pbC1wcmljZXMtcHV0aW4tdHJ1bXAtaXJhbi13YXI=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Christian Caryl: How Ukraine Benefited From Trump’s Iran War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/09/ukraine-benefit-trump-iran-war-russia-drones/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dWtyYWluZS1iZW5lZml0LXRydW1wLWlyYW4td2FyLXJ1c3NpYS1kcm9uZXM=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Alexey Kovalev: Russia’s War Boom Masks an Economic Implosion [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/28/russia-putin-war-ukraine-economy-industry-labor-shortage-demographic-implosion/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=cnVzc2lhLXB1dGluLXdhci11a3JhaW5lLWVjb25vbXktaW5kdXN0cnktbGFib3Itc2hvcnRhZ2UtZGVtb2dyYXBoaWMtaW1wbG9zaW9u&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

The surprisingly normal streets of Tehran

While the conflict in Iran has dominated headlines in the last two months, accounts of ordinary life in the Islamic Republic are scarce. According to journalist Ali Hashem, who spent six weeks in Tehran and has visited several times in the last decade, life in the capital looks more normal than one might imagine. Shops and restaurants are largely open, and regular people seem to be rallying around the flag in the face of an external threat. And while the internet as we know it is shut down, an intranet of sorts—with access to local versions of Netflix, Uber, and WhatsApp—is allowing people a semblance of regular life. Hashem speaks with host Ravi Agrawal about his reporting from Iran.  Ali Hashem: Iran Is More Unified Than Ever [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/28/iran-leadership-government-unified-khamenei-qalibaf-public/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1sZWFkZXJzaGlwLWdvdmVybm1lbnQtdW5pZmllZC1raGFtZW5laS1xYWxpYmFmLXB1YmxpYw==&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/09/iran-cease-fire-lebanon-war-pakistan-talks/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1jZWFzZS1maXJlLWxlYmFub24td2FyLXBha2lzdGFuLXRhbGtz&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Ali Hashem: Waiting for the War to End in Tehran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/01/iran-war-trump-united-states-patriotism-protest-end/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItdHJ1bXAtdW5pdGVkLXN0YXRlcy1wYXRyaW90aXNtLXByb3Rlc3QtZW5k&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Ali Hashem: Iran Is Becoming America’s Ukraine [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/iran-war-ukraine-trump-araghchi-long/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItdWtyYWluZS10cnVtcC1hcmFnaGNoaS1sb25n&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Ali Hashem: Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-ayatollah-assassination-israel-us-war/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1raGFtZW5laS1heWF0b2xsYWgtYXNzYXNzaW5hdGlvbi1pc3JhZWwtdXMtd2Fy&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

‘Ask Me Anything’—the Iran War Edition

It’s time for another ask-me-anything edition of FP Live. This one takes on the war in Iran from many angles: the economic impact, regional balance of power, the longer-term global impact, and much else. Producer Dana Sherne puts audience questions to FP’s editor in chief Ravi Agrawal. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/20/trump-iran-war-energy-prices-stocks-ai-asia-africa/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtaXJhbi13YXItZW5lcmd5LXByaWNlcy1zdG9ja3MtYWktYXNpYS1hZnJpY2E=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/30/trump-war-iran-israel-lebanon-gulf-winner-loser/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtd2FyLWlyYW4taXNyYWVsLWxlYmFub24tZ3VsZi13aW5uZXItbG9zZXI=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Stephen M. Walt: The End of America’s Soft Power [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/04/trump-soft-power-usa/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtc29mdC1wb3dlci11c2E=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Amir Handjani: The Real Meaning of the UAE’s OPEC Exit [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/01/uae-opec-exit-meaning-oil-middle-east/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dWFlLW9wZWMtZXhpdC1tZWFuaW5nLW9pbC1taWRkbGUtZWFzdA==&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer: Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/01/trump-iran-war-regret-cease-fire/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtaXJhbi13YXItcmVncmV0LWNlYXNlLWZpcmU=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Where the Iran War Goes From Here

The extension of a fragile cease-fire in the Middle East has left the region with no clear path forward. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, which means the global energy crisis will get worse. But Tehran’s new leaders are suffering too. What is their plan? Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour joins FP Live to discuss the shifting state of the war. Plus, Ravi shares his read on how the war’s economic fallout is worst in Asia. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/20/trump-iran-war-energy-prices-stocks-ai-asia-africa/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtaXJhbi13YXItZW5lcmd5LXByaWNlcy1zdG9ja3MtYWktYXNpYS1hZnJpY2E=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] David Ignatius: Both Sides Want a Deal. Both Keep Acting As if They Don’t. [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/21/united-states-iran-negotiations-islamabad-pakistan-war-deal-cease-fire-strait-hormuz/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dW5pdGVkLXN0YXRlcy1pcmFuLW5lZ290aWF0aW9ucy1pc2xhbWFiYWQtcGFraXN0YW4td2FyLWRlYWwtY2Vhc2UtZmlyZS1zdHJhaXQtaG9ybXV6&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Menahem Merhavy: The Man Who Represents Post-Clerical Iran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/16/zolghadr-iran-security-post-clerical-era/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=em9sZ2hhZHItaXJhbi1zZWN1cml0eS1wb3N0LWNsZXJpY2FsLWVyYQ==&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Bobby Ghosh: Tehran Can’t Count on Hormuz [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/13/iran-trump-hormuz-war-missiles-nuclear-shipping/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi10cnVtcC1ob3JtdXotd2FyLW1pc3NpbGVzLW51Y2xlYXItc2hpcHBpbmc=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Philip H. Gordon and Rebecca Lissner: The Strategic Aftershocks of Trump’s Iran War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/20/strategic-aftershocks-trump-iran-war-israel-oil/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=c3RyYXRlZ2ljLWFmdGVyc2hvY2tzLXRydW1wLWlyYW4td2FyLWlzcmFlbC1vaWw=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

How Much Will the Iran Conflict Hurt the Global Economy?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is like a ticking time bomb for the global economy, disrupting the flow of energy and rippling through industries from agriculture to semiconductors. How bad could it get? The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global growth this year from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent in the best-case scenario and 2 percent in the worst case. What countries will be the most affected, and what can they do to protect themselves? Gita Gopinath, an economics professor at Harvard University who was formerly the first deputy managing director of the IMF, joins FP Live to discuss. IMF’s World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026?cid=bl-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001] Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/20/trump-iran-war-energy-prices-stocks-ai-asia-africa/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtaXJhbi13YXItZW5lcmd5LXByaWNlcy1zdG9ja3MtYWktYXNpYS1hZnJpY2E=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Keith Johnson: Why Iran Isn’t Blinking Yet [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/28/iran-war-hormuz-trump-oil-storage-blockade-energy/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItaG9ybXV6LXRydW1wLW9pbC1zdG9yYWdlLWJsb2NrYWRlLWVuZXJneQ==&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/17/trump-oil-iran-gas-prices-consumers-crude-energy-taxes/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtb2lsLWlyYW4tZ2FzLXByaWNlcy1jb25zdW1lcnMtY3J1ZGUtZW5lcmd5LXRheGVz&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/04/iran-war-dubai-saudi-qatar-global-economy-oil-shipping-trade/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItZHViYWktc2F1ZGktcWF0YXItZ2xvYmFsLWVjb25vbXktb2lsLXNoaXBwaW5nLXRyYWRl&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]