The Last AAA

The Last AAA

The US just lost its last AAA credit rating, and Nelson and Prath are not exactly shocked — but they are keeping score. This episode traces the economics of a bifurcating country where SpaceX employees are bidding $2M over ask on dilapidated San Francisco houses and everyone else is paying $7.29 for gas, then pivots to private credit: why $18 billion in annual secondary trading sounds impressive until you learn that corporate bonds trade $70 billion in a single day, and what it means that AI data center deals are now pricing inside public markets. Macro gloom, credit math, and an HVAC-on-Mars tangent. The usual.

Trillions Is the New Billion

Cerebras IPOs at $68 billion with 320 employees, SpaceX is reportedly eyeing a $1.5T tape, and Anthropic is racing to beat OpenAI to the public markets. Meanwhile a gallon of gas hit $7.50 near a California airport, the CPI print came in hot, and the stock market still closed at record highs. Nelson and Prath unpack the disconnect — and what it means when "trillion" stops meaning what it used to mean. Plus Apollo's daily marks announcement, Powell's last day, and why the next moat in private credit isn't technology — it's distribution.

Don’t Fall for the Headlines

Q1 is in the books and the board meeting is next week. Nelson and Prath get into what the quarter actually looked like: net flows flat, no gates, new AUM high, while the private credit headlines said otherwise. They also cover Anthropic’s $900B raise, where OpenAI and Claude actually stand in the model wars, Prath’s rate prediction coming in, and what “sell in May” means when the Nasdaq refuses to cooperate.

The Banks Want It Both Ways

Bank earnings are blowing out, and every CEO is suddenly talking up private credit — the same asset class they spent last year warning about. Nelson and Prath break down why banks quietly need private credit to work, how back-leverage facilities keep banks winning either way, and what the new CDX Private Credit Index signals about an industry that still needs more maturity.

Growing Pains

Prath comes off the road from back-to-back investor conferences in Deer Valley and Aspen with a read on where institutional sentiment actually stands. Then Nelson and Prath dig into the Blue Owl 40.7% redemption headline, why JPMorgan and Goldman building short tools is actually a sign of maturity, and what PIMCO, KKR, and J.P. Morgan are all saying about asset-based finance as the safe harbor in private credit. Plus: the Anthropic code leak, a Clippy comeback, and a Bonzi Buddy reunion nobody asked for.