Summit host Turkey eyes major weapons deals with NATO allies

Summit host Turkey eyes major weapons deals with NATO allies

Next week's NATO Summit in Ankara is expected to showcase Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rising influence within the alliance, as he aims to use the gathering to overcome resistance to crucial arms deals and highlight the rapid growth of Turkey’s defence industry. Boasting NATO’s second-largest army and sharing borders with flashpoints from Ukraine to the Middle East, Turkey [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/turkey/] is at the heart of the alliance’s future amid doubts about the United States' commitment to European defence [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/defence/]. “It is a paradigm shift,” says international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. With European and North American leaders attending the summit, on 7 and 8 July, Bagci predicts Erdogan will use the opportunity to cement Turkey’s pivotal role.  “The NATO summit will be a good instrument for Erdogan [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/recep-tayyip-erdogan/] to show Turkish domestic politics, as well as international politics, that he is one of the medium-power leaders in the world with whom you have to deal." Europe, Asia driving surge in global military spending: report [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260427-europe-asia-driving-surge-in-global-military-spending-report-defence-budget-ukraine-russia] DEFENCE DEALS Major arms deals are expected to make headlines at the summit. US President Donald Trump – attending out of what he calls respect for Erdogan – is not likely to come empty-handed. "The administration is eager to deliver something to Erdogan," says Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a US-based think tank. Trump and Erdogan are expected to sign a $700 million deal for the sale of around 80 GE F-110 fighter jet engines. The sale would be a major breakthrough for Ankara in its ambitious Fifth Generation fighter jet project.  “The Kaan fighter jet, Turkey's domestic fighter, is powered at least in the first iteration by the F-110. And so getting these engines would be important for the development of that fighter,” explained Stein. Ankara is investing billions of euros into the Kaan jet, but without enough engines critics have mockingly called it the world’s priciest glider. Congressional roadblocks, fuelled by influential Israeli and Greek lobbies, have stalled the engine deal, but Trump has vowed to use executive power to push it through. “Turkey has become a domestic political football in the United States, kicked around,” says Stein. “The administration wants to push forward on these agreements and is willing to use leverage to do it." Turkey opposition worries that Europe is sacrificing democracy for security [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/special-features/20260627-turkey-opposition-chp-says-europe-is-sacrificing-democracy-for-security] Ankara is also looking to the NATO [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/nato/] summit for a breakthrough in its goal to secure the French-Italian SAMP-T anti-missile system. Until now Paris has blocked the sale, but French media has hinted that an agreement could be within reach.  “That would open maybe a new chapter in European-Turkish relations,” says International relations expert Zaur Gasimov of Istanbul’s Turkish German University. “That would bring key European members of NATO – France, Italy – closer to Turkey. And would maybe forge a new core group within NATO." EXCLUSION FROM SAFE Ankara is using the summit to spotlight Turkey’s booming defence industry, showcasing its cutting-edge weaponry and highly coveted drones, used in conflicts from Ukraine to Africa. “Turkey has quite a developed field of drone production, which is of paramount importance in modern types of warfare,” explains Gasimov. “So all that makes Turkey a very, very special member of NATO from the point of view of European leaders." However, Turkish arms sales to Europe face a major hurdle: exclusion from the EU’s €150 billion Safety and Assistance for Europe (SAFE) arms procurement programme. EU members Greece [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/greece/] and Cyprus [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/cyprus/] continue to block Turkey’s participation in SAFE due to unresolved disputes in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. Turkey expands influence in Africa through military training [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260606-turkey-expands-influence-in-africa-through-military-training] Bagci predicts Erdogan will use his meeting with European leaders to try to break this deadlock. “SAFE is the grand strategic decision of the European Union, so it cannot be stopped or prevented by such a small country like the southern Republic of Cyprus or Greece. The Greeks and the southern Republic of Cyprus, they have to stop or shut up and not prevent [Turkey’s participation in] SAFE," he says.  Turkey is the only country that recognises the Turkish Cypriot administration in Northern Cyprus, refusing to recognise the Republic of Cyprus as the sole sovereign administrator of the island, as international law does.

Turkey opposition worries that Europe is sacrificing democracy for security

Turkey's main opposition says its Western allies are failing to respond as a widening crackdown by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government targets its leaders and elected mayors. The latest arrests this week followed a court decision to remove Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel and reinstate former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in an unprecedented move that was widely condemned by Turkish and international human rights groups. The European Union [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/european-union/]'s response has been far more restrained. "There are some visits, there are some letters sent to us," said Ilhan Uzgel, the CHP's former deputy chair. "There are some public statements regarding the situation in Turkey, but the wording and language used is quite mild. [There's] no action." The CHP [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/chp/] has faced more than a year of arrests targeting its mayors on corruption charges. This week, two more were detained, adding to a list that already includes jailed Istanbul mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu. HRW denounces Turkey arrests ahead of NATO summit [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20260625-hrw-denounces-turkey-arrests-ahead-of-nato-summit] STRATEGIC PARTNER Uzgel said the European Union can no longer stand by and should take a firmer stance. "Mr Erdogan has to be told, 'you're destroying democracy and what you're doing is against the rule of law [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/rule-of-law/],'" said Uzgel. "There could be some kind of a diplomatic isolation," he added. "So whenever Mr Erdogan meets a foreign leader, he's selling it to his own audience, the Turkish public, that he's a world leader. At least this opportunity could be taken from his hand." Yet Erdogan is expected to reinforce his international standing at next month's Nato summit in Ankara [https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/events/2026/07/overview---2026-nato-summit-in-ankara-]. "The two big allies of Turkey [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/turkey/] have decided not to make human rights an issue in the bilateral relationship," said Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. She notes that the EU and Washington have found rare common ground over Turkey. "For President Trump, this comes naturally; he doesn't care about human rights advancement globally," she said. "But now Europeans are also looking for some type of functional relationship with Turkey and wanting to disregard human rights [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/human-rights/] as an impediment to bilateral relations." Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260426-turkey-steps-up-as-europe-s-indispensable-and-uncomfortable-defence-partner] Federico Donelli, an international relations expert at the University of Trieste, said the European Union's restrained response reflected Turkey's growing strategic importance. "The restraint of EU reaction is closely linked to an increase in recognition of Turkey's structural importance for European security." With Nato' [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/nato/]s second-largest army and a rapidly expanding defence industry, Turkey is increasingly seen as an important security partner as Europe faces the threat from Russia [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/russia/] and uncertainty over the United States' long-term commitment. "The US is definitely less stable than in the past, so in this context Turkey is increasingly seen less as a [EU] candidate country and more as a strategic partner," said Donelli. PRESSURE ON GREECE AND CYPRUS Donelli said this shift could increase pressure on Greece [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/greece/] and Cyprus [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/cyprus/], which have long used their vetoes to slow closer EU defence ties with Turkey because of disputes in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean. "We know how much the two countries have conditioned EU-Turkey relations for many years," said Donelli. "These two countries cannot constrain broader EU strategic choices in the next few years, in the next decade." Amid the Russian threat and uncertainty over America's resolve, Turkey's opposition worries it is being sacrificed in the name of Europe's security.  "Historically, Turkish EU relations [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20250621-turkey-steps-into-eu-defence-plans-as-bloc-eyes-independence-from-us] were working for the democratisation of Turkey, but the equation has been reversed. The EU-Turkey ties have been working against Turkey's democratisation," said Uzgel. "The closer Mr Erdogan gets to the EU, [the more] we are losing democracy in Turkey." He nonetheless warned that Europe's approach is short-sighted and could have wider consequences. "Turkey is a country of 86 million, so if democracy fails here, it has to have some implications for other countries as well."

Brexit at 10: What price has the UK paid for 'taking back control'?

Ten years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, Brexit supporters still see this as a historic act of sovereignty, while critics point to the resulting economic damage and political division.  This week RFI examines the legacy of the 2016 Brexit referendum through the sharply contrasting views of three analysts: Federico Fabbrini of the Brexit Institute [https://dcubrexitinstitute.eu/] in Dublin, Robert Oulds of the London-based pro-Brexit Bruges Group [https://brugesgroup.com/], and John Barry of Queen’s University Belfast [https://www.qub.ac.uk/]. Their assessment reveals a country still deeply divided over what Brexit has achieved, what it has cost and what it means for the UK's future relationship with Europe. For Brexit supporters, the desired "control" has been achieved. For its opponents, the economic consequences and divided political landscape loom ever larger.  Between those positions lies a complex reality shaped by trade, immigration, Northern Ireland and the much vaunted idea of “Global Britain”.

Brexit at 10: the promises, the costs and the search for accountability

Ten years on, the UK's decision to leave the European Union is increasingly seen as more than a single referendum result. Critics argue it reflected a wider crisis of political imagination, with Brexit supporters misreading both Britain and the world, while the promised future never arrived. The referendum held on 23 June 2016 remains one of the defining decisions in modern British history. Supporters promised sovereignty, control, lower red tape, new trade deals and a more dynamic “Global Britain”. Critics are unequivocal that Brexit has left Britain poorer, weaker and less able to deal with global shocks 10 years after voters chose to leave the European Union. Opponents argue that many of those promises have not been met. Britain is more constrained, less attractive to investors and still divided over what Brexit [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/brexit/] was supposed to mean. Nevertheless, the vote marked the moment Britain “changed track [https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20160624-brexit-shows-lack-trust-eu-french-fm]”, Colin Hay, professor of political science at Sciences Po in Paris, tells RFI. “Its relationship with the European Union [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/european-union/] and its relationship with the rest of the world has changed fundamentally from this moment onwards,” Hay said. “And 10 years on, we can see that very clearly now.” Two years after Brexit 'got done', poll shows many Britons want new referendum [https://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20230102-two-years-after-brexit-got-done-poll-shows-many-britons-want-new-referendum] A CHANGED BRITAIN Brexit is hard to judge as a normal policy decision, Hay argues, because voters were asked to choose a direction without knowing what form leaving the EU would eventually take. “People didn’t know what the Brexit that they were voting for, if they voted for it, would turn out to be, and now they can see, and there’s a certain amount of buyer’s remorse, I think,” Hay says. One of the strongest attacks on Brexit has come recently from Michael Heseltine, the former Conservative deputy prime minister, who called it a “self-imposed disaster [https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-heseltine-farage-boris-johnson-uk-eu-b2994030.html]” and a “con”. He also said those who sold it should “hang their heads in shame”. For Hay, Heseltine was pointing to a real problem in British politics – especially the way Europe moved from a low-profile issue to the central question shaping political life. “The question of Britain’s relationship to Europe [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/europe/] was – until UKIP came along and until the Brexit referendum – a relatively low salience issue,” Hay said. “Since 2016 and since the campaign, it has been the single dominant issue, which has influenced everything else.” That change helped Nigel Farage [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/nigel-farage/], UKIP and later Reform UK [https://www.reformparty.uk/] become powerful forces in British politics, while also damaging the Conservative Party. 'Rogue state' UK stands by new Brexit legislation which breaks international law [https://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200909-rogue-state-uk-stands-by-new-brexit-legislation-which-breaks-international-law-northern-ireland-border-civil-war-peace-customs] ECONOMIC COSTS The economic impact of UK's departure from the European Union [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/european-union/] is now clearer than it was at the time of the referendum, Hay tells RFI, though he adds that Brexit cannot be separated entirely from the other shocks Britain has faced over the past 10 years. “I think it’s as clear as it could be, but there’s a caveat in that, and that is that a lot’s happened in Britain over the last 10 years, lots happened in the world over the last 10 years, and to identify and to isolate the Brexit effect is actually quite tricky,” he says. The Bank of England has tried to measure the impact, estimating “a drop of 6 percent of GDP [https://econofact.org/the-economic-costs-of-brexit-on-the-uk] lost, as it were, to Brexit”. But the wider cost may be greater because Brexit also affected Britain’s ability to deal with later crises, including Covid and the Ukraine war, he argues. Five years on, has Brexit put Britain at a disadvantage in EU talks? [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20250131-five-years-on-has-brexit-put-britain-at-a-disadvantage-in-eu-talks] “Britain is less well placed to deal with those shocks and challenges today than it would otherwise have been in the absence of Brexit,” Hay continues. The idea of a newly liberated “Global Britain [https://fpif.org/the-crisis-of-global-britain/]” was always weak, because the UK already had many favourable trade terms through its EU membership. “I think the idea of a kind of new ‘Global Britain’ liberated from Europe was always a bit of a myth, frankly,” Hay says. The promise of “Singapore-on-Thames [https://ukandeu.ac.uk/singapore-on-thames-is-dead-long-live-singapore-on-thames/]” also failed to deliver. Britain was already a relatively lightly regulated European economy and had long been highly deregulated in financial services. “There’s been a marginal move in the direction of light regulation, but it’s not really achieved any positive gain for the British economy overall,” Hay said. Countdown to Brexit: Polls predict Leave campaign wins [https://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20160614-countdown-brexit-polls-predict-leave-campaign-wins] CAMPAIGN ARGUMENTS However, the Leave campaign was highly effective in attacking warnings from economists, diplomats, businesses and officials with “Project Fear [https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2025/01/17/project-fear-unpacked-how-fear-based-appeals-became-central-to-the-brexit-referendum/]”. That tactic weakened the role of evidence in the debate, while the Leave side also used the promise that Brexit would free up money for the National Health Service. “I think the Brexit campaign was most effective in a sense, because it was able to discredit and disable any evidence, any expertise that was brought on the remain side of the debate to the table,” Hay says. The campaign, led in part by Farage and his populist message [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260508-english-elections-see-labour-party-punished-and-gains-for-right-wing-reform], encouraged voters to reject not only the EU but also “the form of expert technocratic governance associated with that”, he argues. At the same time, Leave campaigners used a simple financial promise. “They plastered a big number on big red buses and implied that a vote for Brexit would liberate the public finances and allow high levels of investment in the NHS, amongst other things,” Hay says. The result did not match that promise, he adds. EU and UK clash in first post-Brexit legal battle over North Sea fishing ban [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20250128-eu-and-uk-clash-in-first-post-brexit-legal-battle-over-north-sea-fishing-ban] “Anyone who’s tried to be treated in a British hospital in the 10 years since 2016 knows that that didn’t turn out very well,” Hay says. Brexit supporters often argue that the vote was not mainly about economics but about sovereignty and control [https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/brexit-impact/]. Farage and others have also claimed that Brexit failed because it was never properly implemented. Hay explains that argument was easy to make and had been repeated since Theresa May’s time as prime minister, when she faced pressure to deliver a harder and more economically costly form of Brexit. But public opinion has shifted over the past decade. “I think the argument that Brexit was not properly implemented, and that’s why it’s not turned out as well as it could have done, has not particularly been accepted by the public,” says Hay. Around 20 to 30 percent of those who voted for Brexit would now vote remain if given the chance again, he estimates. Burnham wins key UK poll, paving way for bid to challenge PM Starmer [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260619-burnham-wins-key-uk-poll-paving-way-for-bid-to-challenge-pm-starmer] UNCERTAIN FUTURE Meanwhile, Keir Starmer’s government has been trying to rebuild bridges with the EU while avoiding a return to the divisions of the Brexit years. The debate inside Labour [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/labour/] is also becoming more complex, with questions over how far any future leader could go in rebuilding Britain’s relationship [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260511-starmer-to-reset-labour-agenda-bring-uk-back-to-the-heart-of-europe] with the EU. For Hay, Britain’s uncertainty 10 years after Brexit is closely tied to economic weakness [https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-surveys/united-kingdom-economic-snapshot.html]. “It’s much easier to be confident about Britain if it has a stronger economy,” he says. “The Labour administration assumed it would have more fiscal space to do positive things every single time it looks at the books,” Hay said. “It finds there’s no money in the coffer, and if there’s no money in the coffer there’s not much you can do.” Ten years after the vote, Brexit remains more than a question of treaties, borders and trade. It is also a question of what Britain was promised, what was delivered and how much control the country really gained.

Lebanon becomes latest battleground in Turkish-Israeli tensions

Lebanon is emerging as the newest flashpoint in the increasingly strained relations between Turkey and Israel, with the former's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issuing a stark warning that Turkish security begins in Beirut. Earlier this month, Erdogan addressed his parliamentary deputies with a forceful condemnation of Israel’s strikes on Lebanon and Syria, warning that Turkey’s security now stretches beyond its borders, reaching as far as Damascus and Beirut. Tensions between Israel [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/israel/] and Turkey [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/turkey/] have been steadily escalating, with Erdogan vocally supporting Hamas and leading the chorus of condemnation against Israel’s military campaigns in both Gaza and Lebanon. “Lebanon is a new area of competition or dispute between Israel and Turkey," says Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies think tank. “There was definitely concern in Israel after hearing Erdogan's speech. The fact that he speaks about Syria and Lebanon as part of Turkey's security is, of course, a problem for Israel….I think this adds complexity to already a very tense relationship between Israel and Turkey." SHIFTING INFLUENCE  In recent years, Turkey has quietly but steadily expanded its soft-power presence in Lebanon [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/lebanon/], dispatching aid and broadening the reach of its humanitarian groups. This comes as Iran’s influence in the region loosens, signalled by the collapse of the Tehran-backed Assad regime in Syria and growing pressure on Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. “Turkey is concerned about Lebanon because it can create new venues of Israeli zone of influence, when the power of Iran is on the decline,” said international relations professor Ozlem Tur, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. Tur notes that Turkey is eager to seize the opportunities created by these shifting dynamics: “Turkey feels a vacuum of power – and who is going to fill it? And all of this is part of a larger geo-strategic position that Turkey wants to put itself in." Turkey expands influence in Africa through military training [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260606-turkey-expands-influence-in-africa-through-military-training] Erdogan [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/recep-tayyip-erdogan/] has frequently accused Israel of trying to assert dominance across the region, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, which is believed to hold vast untapped energy reserves. Ankara suspects Israeli influence was behind Lebanon’s November 2025 landmark maritime demarcation deal with Cyprus, paving the way for potential exploration of offshore gas fields and energy cooperation in the Mediterranean – a deal Turkey argues undermines its interests, as well as those of the Turkish Cypriot administration and Syria.  “Lebanon joining the competition there is of course worrying [for Ankara]”, Tur added. "This maritime dimension adds to an already competitive environment, and it makes Lebanon a partner in this competition." TRUMP CARD Meanwhile, Turkey-Israel rivalries continue to escalate.  “The Israelis, especially the hard-liners, have been really working hard to get the United States on board with their plans to take Turkey as their next target,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.  However, Guvenc suggests that Erdogan retains a trump card. so to speak.  "The personal rapport between the two leaders, Trump [https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/donald-trump/] and Erdogan, has been an impediment to the materialisation of such American backing to whatever plan Israelis might have in regard to Turkey." Trump’s recent criticism of Israel’s bombing of Beirut and Israel’s ongoing attacks on Lebanon [https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260613-lebanon-reports-strikes-on-south-as-israel-issues-broad-evacuation-warnings] after a peace agreement with Iran, will likely further strengthen Erdogan's hand with Trump, at a time when Washington is increasingly viewing Ankara as key to its regional goals. Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner [https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20260426-turkey-steps-up-as-europe-s-indispensable-and-uncomfortable-defence-partner] “For stability, for mediation, for assistance... in these aspects definitely the US is looking for Ankara and looking for the role Ankara can play in relaxing tensions in the region,” said Lindenstrauss. "But Ankara itself is raising tensions and, of course, Erdogan's inflammatory rhetoric to Israel is not stabilising anything.” Trump is set to visit Ankara for next month’s NATO summit, where Turkey’s regional role will likely dominate discussions between US and Turkish leaders – a meeting poised to deepen Israel’s unease and growing sense of isolation.