Jax Morning Brief — Jobs Day Arrives, Warsh Says Inflation Risk Is Easing, Iran Talks Pause for a Funeral

Jax Morning Brief — Hiring Stalls at 57,000 Jobs, Bond Yields Fall, AI Firms Turn Consultant

Good morning. It's Friday, July third, twenty twenty-six. This is The Morning Brief. I'm Jenny. ANDREW: And I'm Andrew. JENNY: The American economy added just fifty-seven thousand jobs in June — less than half of what forecasters were expecting — and that one number is quietly rewriting the entire conversation about interest rates. ANDREW: And the two biggest names in artificial intelligence are no longer content to just sell you software. They're opening consulting firms to come run it for you. We'll get to what that signals. JENNY: Let's get into it. ANDREW: A quick look at the markets, though these come with an asterisk. Trading closed early yesterday ahead of the Independence Day holiday, and it was a tale of two tapes. The Dow climbed about five hundred ninety points, or one-point-one percent, to a record close of fifty-two thousand nine hundred. The S and P 500 barely budged, finishing essentially flat at seventy-four eighty-three. And the Nasdaq fell eight-tenths of a percent to twenty-five thousand eight hundred thirty-three, dragged down by another round of selling in the big chip names. The ten-year Treasury yield eased to about four-point-four-seven percent, and the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate is tracking right around six-and-a-half percent, according to Mortgage News Daily. Markets are closed today for the holiday, so those are your numbers until Monday. ANDREW: And that split screen — a record Dow next to a sliding Nasdaq — tells you almost everything about the story driving this week. Let's start there. The June jobs report landed yesterday morning, a day early because of the holiday, and it was weak. Employers added fifty-seven thousand jobs. Economists had penciled in something closer to a hundred fifteen thousand. And it wasn't just June — the government revised April and May down by a combined seventy-four thousand jobs, so the recent trend was softer than we thought, too. JENNY: Now, fifty-seven thousand sounds bad, but the unemployment rate actually ticked down. How do both of those things happen at once? ANDREW: Great question, and it's the wrinkle in this report. Unemployment edged down to four-point-two percent from four-point-three. But that's less about strong hiring and more about people leaving the workforce — when fewer people are actively looking, the rate can fall even as job creation stalls. So underneath a headline that looks stable, you've got an economy that added barely enough jobs to keep the lights on. JENNY: Was the weakness broad, or concentrated in a few industries? ANDREW: It was lopsided, and that's telling. Health care, which has carried this labor market for two years, still added jobs but at a noticeably slower clip. The real drag was leisure and hospitality, which shed about sixty thousand jobs in June on much weaker seasonal hiring than usual. When restaurants and hotels stop staffing up heading into the summer travel season, that's often an early read on consumers pulling back. Wage growth, for what it's worth, held steady at three-and-a-half percent over the year — so this is a hiring slowdown, not yet a paycheck problem. JENNY: So how does the Fed read a report like that? Because just two weeks ago the story was that Kevin Warsh's Fed might actually be leaning toward raising rates. ANDREW: That's the real shift. Coming out of the June meeting, nearly every policymaker on that committee saw rates holding steady or going higher — a genuinely hawkish signal. Warsh, the new chair, was at the European Central Bank's forum in Portugal on Tuesday still insisting, quote, prices are too high, and he declined to tip his hand on July. But the bond market didn't wait for him. After this jobs number, traders slashed the odds of a September rate hike to roughly a coin flip, down from about two-in-three just a day earlier. When hiring stalls, the pressure to keep money tight eases — and that's why yields fell. JENNY: Andrew, the other big national thread this week is Iran. Where does that stand? ANDREW: It's on pause, but in a hopeful way. Two days of indirect talks in Doha wrapped up this week with Qatar, the mediator, describing, quote, positive progress toward formally ending the war that began in February. The two sides are now on hold for the state funeral of the former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei — processions run July fourth through the ninth across several Iranian cities, and officials expect it to be the largest funeral in the country's history. The sticking point that remains: Iran is threatening to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz once the current sixty-day truce window closes in mid-August. The U-S is pushing hard to kill that idea. JENNY: And that's not just a foreign policy story — that's an oil story. ANDREW: Exactly right. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait. The reason inflation has been cooling and yields have room to fall is that oil has stayed cheap on hopes this war ends cleanly. If those Hormuz tolls actually materialize, energy prices jump, and everything we just said about the Fed softening could reverse. So keep one eye on Tehran — this is the rare foreign story that runs straight through to the price you pay at the pump and the rate on your loan. ANDREW: And that pivots us straight to my other beat, because nothing translates the bond market to your kitchen table faster than a mortgage. Jenny, this is where that falling ten-year yield actually shows up. JENNY: So does a weak jobs report mean cheaper mortgages this morning? ANDREW: Directionally, yes — but don't expect fireworks. The thirty-year fixed is sitting right around six-and-a-half percent, and it's barely moved in over a week. Mortgage rates track that ten-year Treasury, not the Fed's short-term rate directly, so yesterday's dip in yields is the kind of thing that nudges rates lower over days, not minutes. And remember, markets were only open a half day and are closed today, so the full reaction won't really show up until next week. JENNY: What are you seeing on the demand side? Are buyers actually out there at these rates? ANDREW: Slowly, yes. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported applications were essentially flat last week, up a fraction of a percent, but the encouraging detail is underneath it: purchase applications have now grown year-over-year for nearly three straight months. Buyers are finding openings in markets with more inventory and slower price growth. Refinancing is the coiled spring — refi volume is running about nine percent ahead of a year ago as owners pounce on any dip. The takeaway for someone shopping right now: this is a market rewarding patience, not panic. A softer economy tends to be friendlier to rates over time. ANDREW: And on that note, Jenny, I'll hand it to you — because the other place old business models are getting rewritten this week is artificial intelligence. JENNY: Thanks, Andrew. Here's the shift I've been watching. For three years, the AI companies sold you a product — a model, an API, a subscription — and left it to you to figure out what to do with it. That era is ending. This week the story is that both Anthropic and OpenAI are moving into the consulting business, sending their own engineers inside companies to actually build and run the systems. ANDREW: Wait — so the model makers are becoming the implementation firms too? That's the McKinsey business. JENNY: That's exactly the tension. OpenAI has stood up a majority-owned deployment company, backed by around four billion dollars, whose whole job is to embed engineers inside big enterprises for high-stakes projects — and tellingly, some of the traditional consultancies are partners in it rather than rivals. Anthropic has been building in the same direction and, just this week, rolled out deeper enterprise controls — spending alerts, model-level permissions, usage analytics for administrators. The message to a bank or a lender is: we'll help you not just buy this, but govern it. ANDREW: And why does that matter for a regulated industry like the one we cover in home lending? JENNY: Because governance is the whole ballgame in banking. A mortgage shop can't deploy a black box that makes decisions it can't audit or explain to a regulator. So when the AI labs start shipping spend controls, audit trails, and hands-on deployment teams, they're speaking directly to the compliance officers who've been the biggest brake on adoption. Underneath all of it is a cost story too — Anthropic's newest model, Claude Sonnet 5, which launched Wednesday, delivers near-top-tier performance at a fraction of the price. Cheaper and more auditable is exactly the combination that gets AI out of the pilot phase and into production. ANDREW: There's a broader shift buyers should note, too — the industry seems to be moving past what people were calling tokenmaxxing, this idea that you just throw ever more computing power at every problem. JENNY: Right, and that's a maturation. Companies spent the last two years measuring AI by raw horsepower. Now they're measuring it by return — cost per task, accuracy, whether the thing actually finished the job. And that's a healthier place for a regulated industry to be entering, because it rewards the vendor who can prove value, not just the one with the biggest model. For a lender weighing where to automate first, that's the question to ask now: not how powerful is it, but can you show me what it costs and what it delivers. JENNY: And speaking of getting things into production, let's come home to Jacksonville. Weather-wise, Jacksonville is looking at ninety-four degrees and sunny today — a classic, hot Fourth of July weekend, so hydrate if you're headed to the fireworks on the river. JENNY: The big local story is a collision between ambition and arithmetic. Downtown Jacksonville is in the middle of a genuine building boom — more than nine thousand people now live in the urban core, with something like eight-plus billion dollars of projects in the pipeline. But this week the city's incoming council president, Nick Howland, publicly questioned one of the marquee incentives: a twenty-eight-and-a-half-million-dollar cash grant to help developer Gateway Jax build a fourteen-story tower that would finally bring a full-service Publix downtown. ANDREW: What changed? That grocery deal has been the crown jewel of the downtown pitch. JENNY: What changed is November. Florida voters will decide on a ballot measure to sharply cut property taxes, and Jacksonville's own auditor has warned that could eventually blow a three-hundred-million-dollar-a-year hole in the city budget. So Howland is signaling that this summer's budget hearings — Mayor Donna Deegan presents her spending plan to the council in July — will force some hard choices, and that Publix grant may be one of them. It's the first real sign that the property-tax fight is going to squeeze even the projects everyone agrees on. JENNY: One more quick local note that captures the moment: the city moved this week to sell JEA's former three-building headquarters downtown for just one million dollars to a local contractor, Live Oak, which plans to convert those offices into housing. That office-to-apartments playbook is exactly how you get to the twenty-thousand-resident goal the city has set for downtown — turning empty desks into front doors. ANDREW: And that's a smart place to leave it. Before we let you go, one thing to watch: when U-S and Iran negotiators come back to the table after that state funeral wraps up July ninth. The single biggest variable hanging over everything we talked about this morning — inflation, Treasury yields, your mortgage rate — is the price of oil, and the price of oil hangs on whether those Hormuz tolls happen. A clean resumption keeps this cooling trend going. A breakdown could undo it. Watch July ninth. JENNY: That's your Morning Brief for Friday. Have a safe and happy Fourth of July. ANDREW: We'll see you Monday.

Jax Morning Brief — Jobs Day Arrives, Warsh Says Inflation Risk Is Easing, Iran Talks Pause for a Funeral

Good morning. It's Thursday, July second, twenty twenty-six. This is The Morning Brief. I'm Jenny. ANDREW: And I'm Andrew. JENNY: The number that could reset everything lands this morning. At eight thirty Eastern, we get the June jobs report — and the Fed chair just changed the mood music right before it. ANDREW: And the U.S. and Iran wrapped up two days of talks in Doha with what both sides are calling progress — then hit pause, because Iran is about to bury its supreme leader. We'll explain. JENNY: Let's get into it. ANDREW: A quick look at the markets. Stocks took a breather to start the second half of the year. The S and P 500 slipped about two-tenths of a percent to close at 7,483. The Dow was essentially flat, down fourteen points to 52,305. And the Nasdaq fell two-thirds of a percent to 26,040, as investors cashed in some chips — literally. Semiconductor stocks had run up more than eighty percent in the first half of the year, so a little profit-taking there is not a surprise. The ten-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.47 percent, and the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate is tracking just above 6.5 percent according to Mortgage News Daily. And that ten-year move is actually the story, Jenny — it dropped because of something the Fed chair said. JENNY: This is the piece I want to start with, because it feels like a shift. What did Warsh actually say? ANDREW: So Kevin Warsh was speaking in Portugal, at the European Central Bank's annual forum. And for weeks the story on this Fed has been hawkish — nine officials leaning toward hiking rates, inflation stuck near a three-year high. Warsh just softened that. His words: inflation expectations and inflation risks have, quote, come down. He pointed straight at energy — gas prices have fallen substantially since the U.S. and Iran signed that framework to wind down the war. JENNY: So is that Warsh backing away from a rate hike? ANDREW: Not quite — and he was careful about it. He repeated that the Fed still has more work to do to get inflation back to two percent, and he's still nowhere near cutting. But the tone is different. A month ago the conversation was about how many hikes. Now the chair is publicly saying the risks are easing. Markets heard it immediately — the ten-year yield dropped, and even bitcoin jumped back above sixty thousand dollars on the news. JENNY: And all of that sets up the number this morning. ANDREW: It's the perfect setup. The June jobs report comes out at eight thirty Eastern — a day early, because of the Fourth of July holiday. Economists are looking for somewhere around one hundred ten thousand jobs added, with unemployment holding near four-point-three percent. Here's why the timing matters. If Warsh is right that inflation pressure is fading, a soft jobs number could accelerate the pivot — from talking about hikes to talking about holding, or even eventually cutting. A hot number does the opposite. So this one report, dropping in a couple of hours, could reprice everything we just talked about. JENNY: Let's go to the other big national thread — Iran. The talks in Doha wrapped up. Where do things stand? ANDREW: They ended on a cautiously positive note. These were indirect talks — the U.S. and Iran not in the same room, passing messages through Qatari and Pakistani mediators over two days. Qatar said the two sides made, quote, positive progress on the framework to end the war, and agreed to keep going. The two big items on the table: unfreezing Iran's assets, and the future of the Strait of Hormuz. JENNY: And Hormuz is still the sticking point. ANDREW: It's the whole ballgame. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait. Iran wants the right to charge tankers a passage fee once the current sixty-day truce window ends — Tehran claims joint control of the waterway with Oman. The U.S. position is that Hormuz is an international waterway, so any toll scheme would need the Gulf states to sign off too. That gap is unresolved. JENNY: And you said the talks are now pausing. Why? ANDREW: Because of a funeral. Remember, Iran's longtime supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed back in February at the start of the war. His burial was postponed while the fighting dragged on, and it's finally happening now — days of ceremonies in Tehran starting this weekend, ending with his burial on July ninth. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has already taken over as supreme leader. So the next round of talks won't happen until after the ninth. For markets, the read is: no breakdown, but no breakthrough either — just a ten-day intermission. And with oil already down sharply, that calm is exactly what's letting Warsh sound more relaxed. That's the national desk. Andrew stays put, actually — because the jobs number ties straight into mortgages. ANDREW: It does. Let's talk about what all this means for rates. The thirty-year fixed is sitting just above 6.5 percent — Bankrate has it around 6.5, Mortgage News Daily in the same neighborhood, and a couple of trackers had it ticking toward 6.6 percent after the hawkish June Fed meeting. So rates drifted up over the last two weeks, but they've basically been treading water. JENNY: So for someone trying to lock a rate right now — does today's jobs report change the calculus? ANDREW: More than usual. On a normal week I'd say a day won't matter much. But this morning's number is exactly the kind of thing that moves the ten-year Treasury, and mortgage rates follow the ten-year almost step for step. If Warsh is right and the data cooperates, you could see rates drift lower into the summer. If June comes in hot, the opposite. If you're closing this week and you like the rate you can get, there's a real case for locking before eight thirty. JENNY: And underneath the day-to-day, what are borrowers actually doing? ANDREW: They're leaning in on the dips. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported applications ticked up about one percent in its latest week, and refinancing has been the strong spot — homeowners who bought at higher rates are jumping on even small improvements. There's a wall of demand that's been coiled up for months. Any real break lower and you'd see a surge in refis. For now it's a waiting game, and everyone in the industry is watching the same eight-thirty clock. Jenny, over to you — there was a big move in AI. JENNY: There was, and it fits a theme we've been tracking all week: the race to make these models cheaper. Anthropic launched Claude Sonnet 5 — and it's calling it the most agentic Sonnet model it's built. Agentic just means it can actually go do things on its own — plan out a task, use tools like a web browser or a terminal, and run for a while without a human holding its hand. ANDREW: And the news is the price? JENNY: The news is the price. Sonnet 5 launched at two dollars per million input tokens and ten per million output — and through the end of August it's even cheaper than that. That undercuts Anthropic's own flagship, and it comes in below OpenAI's and Google's comparable models too. So you've got the same pattern we saw with OpenAI's release last week: capability that used to require a big expensive model, now available at a fraction of the cost. ANDREW: And you keep connecting this back to industries like ours — banking, lending. Why does the price tag matter so much there? JENNY: Because in a regulated industry, cost is what turns a pilot into a real deployment. When a mortgage company wants to run one of these models across millions of documents or customer interactions, the per-use price is the whole business case. Cut it in half, and suddenly the math works at scale. And there's a governance angle too — Anthropic also announced a partnership with the data company Snowflake this week aimed specifically at enterprises that need AI they can audit and control. That combination, cheaper plus more governable, is exactly what a bank needs to say yes. ANDREW: So the price war is really an adoption war. JENNY: That's a good way to put it. The labs figured out that the winner isn't whoever has the flashiest demo — it's whoever the compliance department will actually approve. Speaking of home, Andrew — let's bring it back to Jacksonville. JENNY: Weather-wise, Jacksonville is looking at a high around 93 degrees today with the usual summer afternoon thunderstorms rolling through, and it stays hot and steamy right through the holiday weekend. So if you're headed downtown for fireworks, pack the poncho and keep an eye on the radar. JENNY: And downtown is where the action is this weekend, because Jacksonville is throwing a big party. The city is marking America's two hundred fiftieth anniversary with free, family-friendly celebrations on both the north and south banks of the St. Johns on July third and fourth — think music, activities, and fireworks over the river. It's a genuine civic moment, and it lands right as downtown is trying to prove it's a place people actually want to be. ANDREW: And is that just a holiday thing, or is there real momentum behind downtown right now? JENNY: There's real momentum, and the numbers back it up. Downtown Jacksonville now has around nine thousand residents — up from eight thousand just a year ago — and the city's stated goal is twenty thousand. That's the target that makes a downtown feel alive after five o'clock. To get there, you need the anchors, and they're lining up: the Four Seasons hotel and residences is expected to top off this year, the University of Florida is bringing a graduate campus, and there's a new Florida Semiconductor Institute planned for the urban core. ANDREW: And this connects to that grocery store story from yesterday, right? JENNY: It's the same thread. As we reported, developer Gateway Jax got the permit to clear the way for a fourteen-story tower that will include a downtown Publix — the first full-service grocery store downtown has had in years. Residents, then the grocery store, then the amenities. That's the sequence a real downtown follows, and Jacksonville is finally moving through it in order. JENNY: A couple of quick business notes to round it out. The Jacksonville Daily Record reports that Williams Sonoma, West Elm, and Pottery Barn Kids are all returning to the local market, with first openings expected next year. And the city is set to convey land in Northwest Jacksonville for up to fifty new homes aimed at middle-income buyers — the kind of workforce housing that's hard to build and badly needed. Small items, but they point the same direction: people betting on this city. Andrew, take us out. ANDREW: Before we let you go, one thing to watch — and you won't have to wait long. The June jobs report hits at eight thirty this morning, Eastern time. The consensus is about one hundred ten thousand jobs added and unemployment near four-point-three percent. Here's the thing to listen for: with the Fed chair now saying inflation risks are easing, a soft number would strengthen the case that the next move is down, not up — and that would ripple straight into the mortgage rates we just talked about. A hot number reopens the hike debate. Everything today hinges on that one line at eight thirty. JENNY: That's your Morning Brief for Thursday. Have a great day, and a happy Fourth. ANDREW: We'll see you tomorrow.

Jax Morning Brief — Iran Talks Downgraded in Doha, Best Quarter Since 2020, OpenAI's Locked-Down Models

Good morning. It's Wednesday, July first, twenty twenty-six. This is The Morning Brief. I'm Jenny. ANDREW: And I'm Andrew. JENNY: The talks we've been following in Doha just got quieter — literally. The United States and Iran are no longer even meeting face to face, and yet oil keeps falling and markets keep climbing. ANDREW: And OpenAI released its most powerful models yet, then locked them away — you can only use them if the U.S. government says you're allowed. We'll get to what that means. JENNY: Let's get into it. ANDREW: A quick look at the markets. The S and P 500 closed at 7,449, up about eight-tenths of a percent. The Dow added 136 points to finish at 52,319 — its second straight record close. And the Nasdaq jumped a full one and a half percent to 26,214, powered by chip stocks. That closes the books on the second quarter, and it was the best quarter for stocks since twenty twenty. The S and P gained nearly fifteen percent in three months; the Nasdaq, more than twenty-one. The ten-year Treasury yield sits at about 4.47 percent, and the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate is tracking around 6.47 percent according to Bankrate — essentially flat, per Mortgage News Daily. ANDREW: Jenny, the thing to understand about this rally is that it's built almost entirely on one bet: that the Iran war is winding down. So let's start there. ANDREW: As we've been reporting, negotiators moved from Switzerland to Doha to hammer out an arrangement over the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the new development — those talks have been downgraded. As of today, the U.S. and Iran are not meeting directly. Instead, it's indirect, technical-level discussions passed through Qatari and Pakistani mediators. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are in Doha, but they're meeting the Qatari prime minister — not the Iranians. JENNY: So is that a breakdown, or is that just how these things work when they're close to a deal? ANDREW: It's genuinely ambiguous, and that's the point. Iran has ruled out direct talks, which sounds bad. But underneath, there's actually movement. Oman delivered a proposal on the future of the strait, and there's an interim understanding: Iran agrees not to charge transit fees on ships for sixty days. The catch is Iran wants the right to start charging after that, and the U.S., Europe, and the Gulf states are all against it. JENNY: That toll idea keeps coming up. Why is Iran so fixated on it? ANDREW: Because it's leverage they can actually collect on. Tehran has publicly called the Strait of Hormuz its greatest instrument of power, and roughly a fifth of the world's oil moves through that waterway. If Iran can charge every tanker a fee, it's a permanent revenue stream and a permanent hand on the tap. That's why sixty fee-free days isn't a resolution — it's a pause. There's also money on the table separately: about six billion dollars of Iran's frozen assets that would only be released as the talks progress. So both sides have a reason to keep the room open. JENNY: And the market's reading all of that as good news. ANDREW: The oil market is. Brent crude fell toward seventy-three dollars a barrel — that's roughly a thirty percent drop over the quarter, the biggest quarterly decline since twenty twenty. Traffic is moving through Hormuz again, and Iran is even getting some sanctions relief that's putting more barrels on the market. Cheaper oil is the single most important variable for the American consumer right now, and here's why. ANDREW: Since the war started in late February, inflation has climbed to a three-year high — around four percent — and it's been driven mostly by gas prices. So if Doha holds and oil stays cheap, that's the fastest path to cooling inflation. Which brings in Kevin Warsh's Fed. As we've covered, the new chair has gone hawkish, with nine officials now signaling they'd rather hike than cut. Falling oil is the one thing that could take the pressure off him. JENNY: So the whole chain — Doha, oil, inflation, the Fed — it all runs downhill from those mediators in Qatar. ANDREW: That's exactly it. A room in Doha is setting the price of gas, the odds of a rate hike, and the mood on Wall Street all at once. That's your national desk. Jenny, over to you — because there was a big move in AI that ties right into who gets to control this technology. JENNY: There was. OpenAI released its newest models — a family called GPT five point six, with three versions named Sol, Terra, and Luna. Sol is the flagship, Terra matches the last generation at about half the cost, and Luna is the cheap, fast one. Normally that's a launch-day free-for-all. This time, they locked it down. The models are only available to about twenty trusted organizations — and OpenAI did that at the request of the U.S. government. ANDREW: Wait — the government asked them to limit who can use their own product? JENNY: That's the striking part. OpenAI shared the models and their release plans with the government first, and agreed to a restricted rollout while they layer on what they're calling their largest-ever safeguard stack — real-time monitoring, account-level review, tiered access. The concern is the new capabilities around cybersecurity research and advanced scientific analysis. A general release is planned for, quote, the coming weeks. ANDREW: So this is essentially a soft export control on software. JENNY: It's the clearest sign yet that frontier AI is being treated like a strategic asset — closer to how you'd handle advanced chips than how you'd handle an app. Think about the precedent. A private company builds a product, and the government effectively says: not everyone gets to buy this yet. We haven't really seen that with software before. ANDREW: And presumably the twenty organizations that do get access are a pretty select club. JENNY: They are, and OpenAI hasn't fully named them, but you can imagine the profile — large enterprises and research partners that can be vetted and monitored. Which brings up the business wrinkle underneath all this. Remember the trend we flagged — enterprises shifting from chasing raw power to chasing cost. Terra is the tell: same performance as the old flagship at about half the price. Two dollars fifty in, fifteen out, per million tokens. ANDREW: And for the regulated industries we care about — banks, lenders — cheaper is what actually unlocks production use. JENNY: Right. When the model that's good enough gets cut in half on price, the math for a mortgage company running it at scale suddenly works. And it's not just OpenAI — Google put out a new low-cost Gemini model this week too. The whole industry is racing to the bottom on price while racing to the top on capability. Speaking of the mortgage side, Andrew — did any of this actually move rates? ANDREW: Not much, and that's almost the story. It was a quiet stretch for rates. The thirty-year fixed is sitting around 6.47 percent, and per Mortgage News Daily, the daily index has barely budged since last Thursday — the biggest single-day move has been two-hundredths of a percent. Rates are just stuck, waiting on the same thing the markets are waiting on: whether cheap oil pulls inflation down. JENNY: So for someone trying to lock a rate this week — hold or go? ANDREW: With rates this flat, there's no penalty for waiting a day or two to see how the jobs number lands. But here's the interesting behavior underneath the calm. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported refinance applications are running about seventeen percent higher than a year ago — that's held up for weeks now. Homeowners aren't waiting for some dramatic drop; they're grabbing every dip, even small ones, to refinance out of higher rates they locked in earlier. JENNY: So the demand is clearly there, just coiled up. ANDREW: Coiled is the right word. There's a wall of homeowners who would refinance the instant rates break meaningfully lower. Any real move down and you'd see a surge. JENNY: And on the other side of the ledger — are we seeing any stress from people who bought at the top? ANDREW: A little, and it's worth watching. Foreclosure filings in the first quarter ran roughly a quarter higher than a year ago — a multi-year high. It's not a crisis, and it's concentrated among borrowers who stretched at peak prices and peak rates. But it's a reminder that higher-for-longer isn't painless for everyone. For now, though, it's a waiting game — and the whole industry is watching the same Doha-to-oil-to-inflation chain I laid out earlier. Jenny, let's bring it home to Jacksonville. JENNY: Weather-wise, Jacksonville is looking at a high of 92 degrees today with afternoon storms likely, and it stays hot and unsettled heading into the July Fourth weekend — so if you've got fireworks plans, keep an eye on the radar. JENNY: Downtown, there's a real symbol-of-the-times moment. Developer Gateway Jax has secured a city demolition permit to tear down the main auditorium of the former First Baptist Church. In its place: a fourteen-story mixed-use tower with apartments — and, notably, a grocery store. That grocery store is a downtown Publix, and for a downtown that's gone years without a full-service supermarket, that's a genuine milestone. ANDREW: Is that the piece that's been missing — the grocery store — for people who actually want to live downtown? JENNY: It's exactly that. You can build all the apartments you want, but people won't commit to living somewhere they can't buy groceries. A downtown Publix is the kind of anchor that tells the market residential downtown is real, not just aspirational. Gateway Jax has been the most aggressive player in the urban core, and knocking down a landmark church auditorium for housing and a supermarket is about as clear a statement of direction as you'll see. JENNY: A couple of other quick items on the local business front. The Jacksonville Daily Record has been tracking a million-square-foot tenant taking space in North Jacksonville — sources point to Pepsi. And Taco Bell is scouting new locations across Duval and Saint Johns counties. Small signals, but they add up to a region that companies are still betting on. ANDREW: And how's the bigger downtown picture looking beyond this one tower? JENNY: Busy. The Four Seasons hotel and residences is expected to top off this year, with a signature restaurant under review for its top floor. And on the Eastside, the grants committee tied to the Jaguars stadium deal is starting to steer real money — the city has committed forty million dollars over seven years, with the team adding more, toward housing and economic development in that neighborhood. So between the urban core and the Eastside, there's a lot of concrete actually being poured, not just renderings. ANDREW: And City Council is in session today and tomorrow, so there may be more to come. JENNY: There may. Andrew, take us out. ANDREW: Before we let you go, one thing to watch — and it's tomorrow, not next week. The June jobs report lands Thursday morning at eight thirty Eastern. Economists are looking for somewhere around one hundred ten to one hundred fifteen thousand jobs added, with unemployment holding near four-point-three percent. Here's why it matters this time: with the Fed leaning toward a hike, a hot number would give the hawks more ammunition and could push mortgage rates up off this flat line. A soft number does the opposite. Everything we talked about today — rates, the Fed, the markets — reprices the moment that report hits. JENNY: That's your Morning Brief for Wednesday. Have a great day. ANDREW: We'll see you tomorrow.

Jax Morning Brief — Iran Talks Land in Doha, Dow Tops 52,000, Rates Stuck Near 6.5%

Good morning. It's Tuesday, June 30th, 2026. This is The Morning Brief. I'm Jenny. ANDREW: And I'm Andrew. JENNY: After a weekend that put the U.S.-Iran ceasefire on a knife's edge, negotiators from both sides sit down in Doha today — and the whole fight now turns on one narrow stretch of water, the Strait of Hormuz. ANDREW: And Wall Street is shrugging it off. The Dow closed above fifty-two thousand for the first time ever yesterday, with Google's parent company making its debut in the index. JENNY: Let's get into it. ANDREW: A quick look at the markets. Stocks rallied to start the week. The S and P 500 rose about 1.2 percent. The Nasdaq jumped roughly 2 percent. And the Dow added about six-tenths of a percent to close at fifty-two thousand, one hundred eighty-three — its first finish ever above fifty-two thousand, according to CNBC. The ten-year Treasury yield sits at about 4.37 percent, and the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate is tracking at roughly 6.5 percent according to Mortgage News Daily. The rally had three engines: easing Iran tensions, Alphabet joining the Dow and climbing more than four percent on its first day, and a Supreme Court ruling that markets read as protecting the Fed's independence. ANDREW: And that Iran story is where we have to start, because it's the one thing that could undo all of it. Jenny set it up — the ceasefire nearly came apart over the weekend. JENNY: It really did. Walk people through what actually happened, because it moved fast. ANDREW: It did. After weeks of a fragile truce, we saw four straight days of tit-for-tat strikes. The U.S. hit Iranian military sites, Iran retaliated by targeting American facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, and both Gulf states condemned the attacks. By late in the weekend, both sides agreed to stand down again — for now — and to say that ships can move freely through the Strait of Hormuz. JENNY: For now being the key phrase. So what's actually on the table in Doha today? ANDREW: Right. These talks were originally supposed to happen in Switzerland and focus on Iran's nuclear program. After the escalation, they were moved to Qatar and narrowed to one urgent question: who controls Hormuz, and under what terms ships pass through. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is publicly claiming Tehran now has, in his words, sole control of the strait, and he's warned against any separate arrangement. That's the sticking point. JENNY: And why this matters to anyone who isn't watching a shipping map — roughly a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait. ANDREW: Exactly. And keep in mind the scale of this. This war began at the end of February, and the strait has been the choke point ever since. Iran has been limiting which vessels pass and reportedly charging steep tolls, so Gulf exports are still running well below where they were before the fighting. The White House has even asked Congress for tens of billions of dollars tied to the conflict. So a deal in Doha isn't a minor diplomatic footnote — it's the difference between oil supply normalizing and another price spike. JENNY: And the markets are essentially betting on the optimistic version right now. ANDREW: They are, which is the risk. Yesterday's record close priced in de-escalation. If today's talks disappoint, that optimism unwinds quickly. Which is why this connects straight to your wallet. Higher oil feeds inflation, and inflation is the whole reason the Fed has gone hawkish. At its June meeting, the central bank held rates in the three-and-a-half to three-and-three-quarter percent range, but the new projections were striking — close to nine officials now expect at least one rate hike this year. Back in March, the median expectation was a cut. JENNY: That's a real reversal. And this is the first big set of projections under the new chair, Kevin Warsh. ANDREW: It is, and he made his message unmistakable. In his first press conference, Warsh said the word, quote, price stability, twelve times. Core inflation has climbed to about 3.3 percent, well above the Fed's two percent target. The phrase of the moment is higher for longer — and stay with me, Jenny, because that lands directly on the housing market. JENNY: That's the perfect handoff. What's it doing to mortgage rates? ANDREW: For now, holding steady — but stuck. The thirty-year fixed is tracking around 6.5 percent, with Bankrate's weekly survey at about 6.48 percent. Rates had been drifting toward a one-month low on cheaper oil and quarter-end bond buying, but the hot inflation talk has pulled them right back up. The ten-year Treasury, which mortgage rates follow, is sitting near 4.37 percent. JENNY: So for someone trying to lock a rate this week, what's the read? ANDREW: The read is: don't wait for a big drop, because nothing on the horizon delivers one. As long as the Fed is talking about hikes instead of cuts, the ceiling on rates stays firm. Housing economists are now broadly expecting rates to stay above six percent for the rest of the year. The one wild card is oil — if Doha produces a real Hormuz deal and crude falls, that could nudge rates down. If it collapses, rates go the other way. JENNY: And demand is still hanging in there despite all of it. ANDREW: It is, modestly. Refinancing has actually picked up — the refi share of applications recently hit its highest level in months, around forty-one percent, as homeowners grab any dip they can. But there's a warning sign underneath. Foreclosure filings in the first quarter were up about twenty-six percent from a year ago, a six-year high. The pain is concentrated, but it's real. Jenny, that's the macro picture — over to you for the AI desk, where the drama is all about people. JENNY: It really is, Andrew, and it's been a wild stretch. Google's AI lab, DeepMind, has lost four senior researchers in just six days — and these aren't ordinary engineers. One of them co-invented the technology that basically every modern AI model is built on. Another is a Nobel laureate. ANDREW: Wait — a Nobel laureate is leaving Google for a competitor? JENNY: He is. John Jumper, who won the 2024 Nobel in chemistry for using AI to predict protein structures, has joined Anthropic. Two more DeepMind researchers followed him there, and Noam Shazeer — one of the co-authors of the foundational Transformer paper — went the other direction, to OpenAI. Four departures, six days. ANDREW: And yet Alphabet's stock just hit a record and joined the Dow. How do those two things coexist? JENNY: That's the fascinating tension. Investors are rewarding Alphabet for its advertising and cloud business and its sheer scale, even as the talent that builds the actual models walks out the door. The bet from Wall Street is that Google's infrastructure wins regardless. The bet from the researchers is that the smaller, focused labs are where the frontier is being pushed. ANDREW: And the product race hasn't slowed down at all. JENNY: Not even a little. OpenAI just previewed its next flagship model, GPT-5.6 — codenamed Sol — and it's said to be days from a wider release. And here's the detail for the executives listening: OpenAI also unveiled its first custom-designed AI chip, built with Broadcom and nicknamed Jalapeño. That's a direct shot at reducing its dependence on Nvidia — the same playbook Google and Amazon have run, now coming to OpenAI. ANDREW: So the whole industry is racing on two tracks at once — talent and silicon. JENNY: Exactly. Talent, chips, and increasingly, cost. The big shift this quarter is that enterprise customers have stopped chasing the biggest, most expensive model for everything and started demanding efficiency and return on investment. That's pushing the labs toward a price war — good news for any business actually deploying this stuff. ANDREW: And for regulated industries like banking and lending, cheaper and more efficient models lower the bar to actually putting this into production. JENNY: That's the real story underneath the headlines. When the cost per task drops, the use cases that didn't pencil out a year ago suddenly do — document review, underwriting support, customer service. The Nobel laureates make the news, but the price curve is what changes how an ordinary company operates. And speaking of business closer to home — let me bring it back to Jacksonville. JENNY: Weather-wise, Jacksonville is looking at a high near 97 degrees and mostly sunny skies today — but with the humidity, the heat index could push past 106. So it is a serious heat day. Drink water, check on your neighbors. ANDREW: That's brutal even by Florida-in-June standards. JENNY: It really is. On the news front, the long-running City Council investigation into JEA, our city-owned utility, is effectively winding down. The special investigatory committee — the one that's spent months on allegations of a toxic workplace and on uncollected capacity fees — was allowed to dissolve last week as the council leadership changes hands. ANDREW: So after all those subpoenas and hearings, including the CEO's testimony — that's just over? JENNY: Not over, but transformed. Incoming Council President Nick Howland is replacing it with a narrower committee — the Financial Audit and Oversight committee — that starts up July 20th and focuses specifically on the unbilled water capacity fees, with findings due by mid-September. According to Action News Jax and the Jax Daily Record, the goal is to shift the council's role from investigation to oversight. It helps that the city's inspector general said last week that JEA is now addressing the fee-collection problem appropriately. So the temperature is coming down on what had been a real political brawl. ANDREW: That sounds like everyone deciding to lower the volume at once. JENNY: Pretty much. And while that fight cools off, the council has been quietly chipping away at something more constructive — housing. Over recent weeks, lawmakers have kept donating surplus city-owned lots to nonprofit builders for affordable homes, adding more than a dozen parcels across the North, Northwest, and Eastside. It's not flashy, but in a city where the property-insurance and affordability squeeze is real, putting vacant public land to work actually moves the needle. ANDREW: And those incentives for density are still working their way through? JENNY: They are — the so-called target-growth-area incentives are advancing, and the question is whether they clear the full council and whether builders actually take them up. We'll be tracking that. ANDREW: And what about that downtown culinary school project? Last I heard the city had put real money on the table. JENNY: Still waiting, and patience is wearing thin. The council pledged up to thirty-five million dollars in incentives to land a Culinary Institute of America campus on the downtown riverfront, anchoring a hundred-and-sixty-million-dollar hotel and convention project on East Bay Street. The Institute's board was expected to decide back in mid-June, but according to News4Jax, there's still no formal announcement. The Downtown Investment Authority says the school appears to want a coordinated rollout with local partners — which reads more like a delay than a no. But after pledging thirty-five million dollars, the council wants an answer. Andrew, that's Jacksonville — bring us home. ANDREW: Before we let you go, one thing to watch this week: those Iran talks in Doha today. The narrow question is whether negotiators can produce a durable arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz, or whether they walk away and the strikes resume. Watch oil prices for the answer — if crude falls on a deal, that's the one realistic path to lower mortgage rates this summer. If the talks collapse, expect oil up, inflation worries up, and the Fed's hike talk to get louder. It's the thread connecting everything we covered this morning. JENNY: That's your Morning Brief for Tuesday. Stay cool out there, Jacksonville. ANDREW: We'll see you tomorrow.

Jax Morning Brief — Iran Ceasefire Cracks Over the Weekend, Fed Eyes a Hike, Google's Brain Drain

Good morning, and welcome back from the weekend. It's Monday, June 29th, 2026. This is The Morning Brief. I'm Jenny. ANDREW: And I'm Andrew. JENNY: While you were off the clock, the fragile US-Iran ceasefire nearly came apart. A weekend of tit-for-tat strikes in and around the Strait of Hormuz has both sides heading into make-or-break talks in Doha tomorrow. ANDREW: And in tech, Google's AI lab lost four top researchers in six days, including a Nobel laureate. We'll talk about what a brain drain like that means when the whole industry is fighting over the same few hundred people. JENNY: Let's get into it. ANDREW: A quick look at the markets. It was a jittery week that ended on a quiet note. The S and P 500 closed Friday at roughly 7,354, basically flat on the day, down five hundredths of a percent. The Dow finished around 51,876, off about a tenth of a percent. And the Nasdaq slipped to about 25,298, down a quarter percent, and that was its fifth straight losing session as chip stocks kept selling off. The ten-year Treasury yield sits at about 4.37 percent, and the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate is tracking around 6.5 percent according to Mortgage News Daily. ANDREW: And the weekend at a glance: the Iran ceasefire was tested by fresh strikes, oil whipsawed around four-month lows, the Federal Reserve's new posture has Wall Street debating a rate hike rather than a cut, and Julia Letlow won Louisiana's Republican Senate runoff, completing President Trump's revenge against a senator who voted to convict him. We start at the national desk. ANDREW: The biggest story of the weekend is Iran. To set the table: this war began back on February 28th. In early June, the US and Iran signed a fourteen-point interim memorandum giving both sides sixty days to negotiate a permanent deal, and for a couple of weeks the guns mostly went quiet and oil prices tumbled. That calm cracked this weekend. JENNY: So what actually happened over the last few days? ANDREW: It was a rapid exchange. Thursday, Iran targeted a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US struck Iranian military sites on Friday. Then Saturday, Washington hit Iran again after Tehran struck a vessel carrying Qatari oil. And on Sunday, Iran said it fired ballistic missiles and drones toward the US air base in Kuwait and the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. JENNY: That sounds like the ceasefire is effectively dead. Is it? ANDREW: Not officially, and that's the key nuance. By late Sunday, both sides had agreed to stand down again ahead of the talks. The interim memorandum is technically still alive. But this weekend showed how thin the margin is, and the real test comes tomorrow, June 30th, when negotiators meet in Doha to try to turn that sixty-day framework into a permanent agreement, including limits on Iran's nuclear program. JENNY: And the Strait of Hormuz is the part that hits people here at home, right? Through gas prices? ANDREW: Exactly. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait. Officially it's open, but it's effectively choked. Iran is limiting how many ships can cross and reportedly charging tolls north of a million dollars a vessel. Gulf exports are running at about 75 percent of where they were before the war. That's why oil has been so jumpy. West Texas crude touched its lowest level since February last week, near 69 dollars, then Brent bounced back above 72 on the weekend strikes. And to put a number on the cost of all this, the White House has asked Congress for about 87 and a half billion dollars to cover the Iran war, an Ebola outbreak abroad, and aid to American farmers. JENNY: Hold that thought on oil, because it loops right back into the Fed story. ANDREW: It does, and that's the second big national thread. Remember, the Fed has a new chair now. Kevin Warsh was sworn in May 22nd after the narrowest confirmation vote in modern history. At his first meeting on June 17th, the Fed held rates steady at 3 and a half to 3 and three-quarters percent, but the projections told the real story. The median official now sees the rate ending this year at about 3.8 percent. That's not a cut. That points to a hike. JENNY: Wait. So just a few months ago the conversation was about rate cuts, and now they're penciling in a hike? ANDREW: That's the whiplash. Eight officials are now in the hike camp for this year. And Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari became the first to publicly flip from expecting a cut to expecting a hike, pointing straight at energy prices and the uncertainty around Iran. The inflation data backs him up. May's core reading, the Fed's preferred gauge, came in at about 3.4 percent, the hottest in over a year. So this is the new reality for anyone with a loan: higher for longer. JENNY: And the third thing on your desk, the Louisiana runoff. ANDREW: A clean political headline. On Saturday, Julia Letlow won the Republican Senate runoff in Louisiana, beating state Treasurer John Fleming. This completes President Trump's revenge against Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump at his second impeachment and then lost the May primary outright. Louisiana is deep red, so Letlow is all but certain to win in November. Cassidy becomes one of two Republican incumbents pushed out this cycle, alongside Texas's John Cornyn. JENNY: Andrew, that brings us neatly to the other big story of the week, because a lot of it lives in tech. Let me take it over to the AI desk. JENNY: And the headline there is a talent war that just turned brutal for Google. In a six-day stretch this month, Google DeepMind lost four of its most important researchers to rivals. Noam Shazeer, one of the authors of the original paper that made modern AI possible and a co-lead on Google's Gemini, went to OpenAI. And John Jumper, who won a Nobel Prize last year for the protein-folding breakthrough AlphaFold, left for Anthropic. ANDREW: Four people. How much can a few departures really move a company the size of Google? JENNY: More than you'd think, and the market made that clear. The news helped wipe out roughly 269 billion dollars in Alphabet's value over the week. Two more Gemini contributors are also headed to Anthropic. And here's the detail that stings: for the first time, ChatGPT's share of the chatbot market slipped below 50 percent, so this isn't a company coasting on a lead. The fear is that when your best minds walk out the door, the quality of your next model walks with them. ANDREW: And OpenAI didn't exactly stay quiet either. JENNY: No. On Friday, OpenAI previewed its next generation, GPT-5.6, in three flavors. There's Sol, the flagship; Terra, a balanced everyday model they say is twice as cheap as the last version; and Luna, built for cheap, high-volume work. Here's the unusual part: it's a limited preview, only about twenty organizations, and OpenAI shared the models with the US government before releasing them, citing stronger capabilities in areas like biology and cybersecurity. ANDREW: So they're treating raw capability as something close to a security matter. JENNY: That's the signal. And the third piece is about money and discipline. CNBC reported Friday that companies are done with what the industry was calling tokenmaxxing, just throwing unlimited spending at AI. They're shifting hard toward efficiency and return on investment. One startup moved all its traffic off a premium model to a cheaper one to cut costs. That's pressuring even the leaders, and it's pushing OpenAI and Anthropic toward a price war, even though Anthropic is now running at something like a 47 billion dollar annualized pace. ANDREW: It's a strange split-screen. Record dealmaking on one side, belt-tightening on the other. JENNY: That's the whole mood of the sector right now. Just look at the record deal still echoing from earlier this month: SpaceX agreed to buy the AI coding company Cursor for 60 billion dollars in stock, the largest acquisition of a venture-backed startup ever, days after SpaceX pulled off the biggest IPO in history. Huge bets at the top, while everyone underneath sharpens their pencils. Andrew, all of this Fed-and-inflation talk has a very real cost down at street level. What's it doing to mortgages? ANDREW: It's the tug-of-war of the year, Jenny. The thirty-year fixed is sitting right around 6.5 percent. Mortgage News Daily has it at about 6.53 percent, Bankrate near 6.54, so call it six and a half. Now, rates had actually been drifting down toward a one-month low last week, helped by that cheaper oil and a ten-year yield that eased to around 4.37 percent. JENNY: So that's good news for buyers. Why isn't it sticking? ANDREW: Because the Fed story we just talked about is pulling the other way. Falling oil and quarter-end bond buying have been pushing rates down, but the hot inflation print and that hike talk are pushing the ten-year yield, and therefore mortgage rates, back up. So a buyer trying to lock a rate this week is caught between a calmer bond market and a more hawkish Fed. The practical takeaway: if you see a rate you like, the case for locking it is stronger than it's been in a while. JENNY: Are people actually out there shopping at six and a half percent? ANDREW: Cautiously, yes. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported applications rose 1 percent in the latest week, with refinancing up 3 percent. And here's the interesting tell: refinancing now makes up about 41 and a half percent of all activity, the highest share in months. That means a chunk of homeowners who bought at much higher rates are jumping the moment they see any dip. The soft spot is still the distressed end of the market. Foreclosure filings in the first quarter ran about 119,000, up 26 percent from a year ago and a six-year high, so the stress is concentrated, not widespread. JENNY: Andrew, thanks. Let me bring us home to Jacksonville. And weather-wise, it is going to be a hot one. Jacksonville is looking at a high near 97 degrees today with a mix of sun and clouds, and the chance of a stray afternoon thunderstorm, so keep the umbrella handy. JENNY: The big local story is at City Hall, and it lands tomorrow. The City Council's special committee investigating JEA, our city-owned utility, is due to deliver its final report by June 30th, that's tomorrow. ANDREW: Remind folks what this investigation is actually about. JENNY: Two things, really. First, allegations of a toxic workplace culture and racism under CEO Vickie Cavey, including how senior leaders were treated and pushed out. And second, a financial question about whether the utility properly collected what are called capacity fees, and whether that affected its bond commitments. Cavey herself testified before the committee on June 22nd, and she was widely expected to be the last executive to do so. ANDREW: So the report tomorrow is the payoff. JENNY: It is, and the real question is how far it goes. Does it just criticize, or does it recommend specific changes to leadership or the utility's charter? There's already a wrinkle: the city's Inspector General said last week that JEA is now handling the capacity-fee problem appropriately, which could soften part of the findings. We'll be watching closely tomorrow. ANDREW: And there's that other downtown story you've been tracking, the culinary school. JENNY: Right, the Culinary Institute of America campus. To catch everyone up: back in May, the City Council pledged up to 35 million dollars in incentives to land a Southeast campus for the Institute downtown, as the anchor of a 160 and a half million dollar hotel and convention hall project on East Bay Street. The Institute's board was supposed to make its decision in mid-June, but there's still no formal announcement. ANDREW: After the city put 35 million on the table, that silence has to be uncomfortable. JENNY: It's making some council members impatient, yes. The Downtown Investment Authority's chief, Colin Tarbert, says the Institute appears to want a coordinated, joint announcement with local partners rather than going it alone, so the read is delay, not rejection. But until there's a signed commitment, that 35 million is a pledge waiting on a partner. And quickly on housing: the council has kept up its push to hand surplus city properties to nonprofit builders for affordable homes, adding more than a dozen lots across the North, Northwest, and Eastside in recent weeks. It's a small but steady effort to chip away at our supply crunch, and it matters more now, because with mortgage rates stuck near six and a half percent, building affordable supply is one of the few levers a city actually controls. Andrew, take us out. ANDREW: Before we let you go, one thing to watch this week, and it's tomorrow. June 30th is a double deadline. Globally, US and Iranian negotiators sit down in Doha to try to turn that shaky sixty-day framework into a real, lasting deal. Watch whether they walk out with progress or with a collapse, because that single outcome will move oil, the ten-year Treasury, and by extension the mortgage rate sitting in your inbox. And right here at home, that same day, the JEA report lands at City Hall. Two very different stakes, one date. JENNY: That's your Morning Brief for Monday. Have a great start to your week. ANDREW: We'll see you tomorrow.