CPI Surprise: Inflation Drops 0.4% | S3 E153 | 07-14-26

CPI Surprise: Inflation Drops 0.4% | S3 E153 | 07-14-26

This week's June CPI report brought a surprise most analysts did not expect. Headline inflation fell 0.4% on a month over month basis, driven almost entirely by a sharp drop in energy and commodity prices. On a year over year basis, headline inflation is still running at 3.5%, but that's down meaningfully from 4.2% a year ago. The timing matters. The Fed's new chairman is testifying before Congress this week, and his prepared remarks stayed hawkish on inflation even as this report showed real progress. Megan breaks down why cooler energy prices, calmer core inflation, and a still cautious Fed leave August rate hike expectations off the table for now, and why tensions in the Middle East could bring volatility back to inflation data in the months ahead. Megan covers:  📉 Why June's 0.4% CPI decline caught most analysts off guard  📊 How core inflation cooled to 2.6% year over year, down from 2.9%  🛢️ What falling energy services costs and easing core services really signal  🏛️ Why the new Fed chair's hawkish testimony didn't budge despite the good news  📅 Why an August rate hike now looks off the table  ⚠️ How tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could still stir inflation volatility If you're trying to make sense of what today's inflation data means for your money, tune in for the full breakdown and subscribe for tomorrow's update on the producer price index. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM [https://marketswithmegan.FM]  #CPIReport #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CoreInflation #StockMarket #EconomicData #MarketsWithMegan #FedTestimony #OilPrices  https://youtu.be/whHRp2cnMuk [https://youtu.be/whHRp2cnMuk] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

5 Questions Driving Markets This Summer | S3 E152 | 06-22-26

With markets hitting record highs and a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire in place, investors are sitting with a lot of open questions heading into the second half of 2026. In this episode, Megan Horneman works through the five questions she's hearing most from investors right now, from energy prices to Fed policy to what Q2 earnings season might reveal. - What the U.S.-Iran interim ceasefire means for investors, and three key details still unresolved - Why gas prices haven't kept pace with the 30% drop in crude oil, and when that relief may arrive - Why Verdence expects the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of 2026, starting at 25 basis points - Whether stocks are actually overvalued at record highs, and why current earnings expectations may be too optimistic - What investors should watch in Q2 earnings season, specifically whether AI spending is generating measurable revenue - Why Verdence remains in a buy-on-weakness posture while staying patient on new positions this summer If you're watching your portfolio closely and trying to make sense of a complicated market, this episode gives you a clear-eyed mid-year read. Subscribe so you never miss a weekly update from Megan. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM #MarketsWithMegan #FedRateHike #IranCeasefire #OilPrices #StockMarket2026 #EarningsSeason #AIStocks #InvestingAdvice #MidYearOutlook #marketupdate  https://youtu.be/sXonCJlm59w [https://youtu.be/sXonCJlm59w] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The Kevin Warsh Era Has Begun | S3 E151 | 06-17-26

The Fed didn’t raise rates, but the meeting still packed a punch and markets felt it immediately. We break down the first decision under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and why a “no change” outcome can still read as hawkish when the inflation outlook shifts and the Fed changes how it communicates. If you care about interest rates, inflation, bond yields, and what gets priced into markets next, this quick update is built for you.  Megan Horneman digs into the biggest headline beneath the headline: higher projected core inflation in the years ahead, pushing the timeline for getting back toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target. That matters because inflation expectations drive the path of monetary policy, and it helps explain why investors quickly move to price out rate cuts for the year. We also talk through the market reaction right after the statement, including why stocks dipped on the hawkish tilt and why Treasury yields rose as traders adjusted to the new rate path.  Then we zoom in on Warsh’s clear stance against Federal Reserve overcommunication. A shorter statement and the choice not to publish dot plots from the chair signal a new approach: less forward guidance, more flexibility, and more focus on what monetary policy is actually doing. We also cover the task forces Warsh introduces, spanning communications, the Fed balance sheet, data methodology, productivity and jobs in an AI-shifting economy, and potential changes to the inflation framework, including interest in measures like trimmed PCE.  Subscribe for more market-moving takes, share the show with a friend who follows the Fed, and leave a review so more listeners can find us. What do you think: does less Fed guidance make markets calmer or more volatile? https://youtu.be/eLSzFf6Ttpc [https://youtu.be/eLSzFf6Ttpc] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

5.1% Producer Inflation: Should You Be Worried? | S3 E150 | 06-11-26

The producer price index for May came in at a monthly gain of 0.8% when stripping out food, energy, and trade, the fastest pace at that level since 2022. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are up 5.1%. Megan Horneman breaks down what the numbers actually mean and why they matter beyond the headlines. In this episode, Megan covers: - Why the core PPI reading of 0.8% month-over-month is the number that matters more than the headline - Which components from PPI will filter into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE - How portfolio management fees and healthcare costs are contributing to the upcoming PCE read - What it means that upstream business costs are rising but have not yet shown up fully at the consumer level - What to watch for from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at next week's FOMC meeting - Why markets bounced today despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty If you are trying to make sense of where inflation really stands and what the Fed is likely to do next, this episode gives you a five-minute read on both.  Subscribe so you do not miss next week's post-Fed coverage. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM #MarketsWithMegan #ProducerPriceIndex #PPI #FedRateDecision #KevinWarsh #PCEInflation #FederalReserve #Inflation2025 #InterestRates #EconomicData https://youtu.be/hbTsnKWJJEw [https://youtu.be/hbTsnKWJJEw] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Rising Prices, Falling Paychecks | S3 E149 | 06-10-26

Inflation moved higher again in May, and the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows prices are drifting further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. In this episode of Markets with Megan, CIO Megan Horneman discusses the latest inflation data, including rising energy costs, sticky services inflation, higher food and travel prices, and why real wages have slipped back into negative territory. Megan also explains what this means for the Federal Reserve as a new Fed Chair prepares to take office next week. 📈 Topics covered: • May CPI report breakdown • Energy prices and inflation • Services inflation remains sticky • Food, travel, and apparel costs • Real wages vs. inflation • What this means for the Federal Reserve • Key economic reports still ahead this week Subscribe for regular updates on the economy, markets, inflation, interest rates, and what the latest economic data could mean for investors. For a history, check out https://MarketsWithMegan.FM #MarketsWithMegan #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #TheFed #EconomyNews #StockMarketNews #InvestingNews #InterestRates #ConsumerPrices #MarketUpdate #EconomicData #marketinsights https://youtu.be/tXPUdo3FO0I [https://youtu.be/tXPUdo3FO0I] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...