Stack Financial's Jonson foresees a 'bear market waterfall' ahead

Stack Financial's Jonson foresees a 'bear market waterfall' ahead

Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management [https://stackfinancialmanagement.com], says the stock market is building towards "one of the biggest or largest bear markets of our generation," but he says that decline will impact passive, broad-index investors the most. "We see a true long-term, 12- to 18-month, 45 to 50 downturn, and that's in the S&P; if you look at the Nasdaq, you could really see some losses that are in excess of 70 percent," Jonson said. He's worried about a "bear market waterfall" — where every decline is not met with a quick return back to new highs — that makes it emotionally difficult for investors to buy into dips, but he does say that being patient and strategic should allow investors to find pockets of opportunity amid the decline, positioning them to profit when the pendulum swings back to the upside. Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments [https://merkinvestments.com], discusses Saba Capital's [https://sabacapital.com] activist campaign that recently saw him booted as portfolio manager for ASA Gold and Precious Metals Ltd. [https://asaltd.com], a closed-end fund that was up nearly 200% last year and that was at the top of its peer group since Merk took it over in 2016. Still, the activist shareholders labeled it a poor performer, and are working now to capture the fund's discount. Meanwhile, Saba has installed new leadership which Merk says has no experience running a gold fund. He filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission [https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1230869/000121390026074304/ea0296746-px14a6g_asagold.htm] and made other efforts to save the fund [https://saveasa.com], but acknowledges that a change in status is unlikely. Merk also discusses his outlook for gold in the interview. Adam Gebler, head of wealth for the Americas at FTSE Russell [https://lseg.com/en/ftse-russell], discusses the firm's 2026 U.S. Wealth Pulse Survey [https://lseg.com/en/ftse-russell/research/2026-ftse-russell-wealth-pulse-survey], which showed that private markets — both equity and credit — are continuing to move into the mainstream with affluent investors, driven largely by financial advisers pushing for their adoption and acceptance in portfolios.

Evanston Cap's VanGelder: Complicated global picture creates intriguing opportunities

Kristen VanGelder [https://evanstoncap.com/about/team/kristen-vangelder], co-chief investment officer at Evanston Capital [https://evanstoncap.com] — a firm that manages hedge funds built out of hedge funds — says that sophisticated money managers have very different sentiments about current market conditions than Main Street investors, noting that where average investors are showing lousy sentiment numbers, sharpies are leaning into the market's increasing "dispersion" and the ability to play one thing against the next to turn volatility into profits. She says that global macro investors "have the glimmer in their eye," because the pressure of war and a complicated global inflationary picture are creating opportunities beyond what investors can fund sticking with fundamental investing domestically. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi [https://vettafi.com], goes away from his long-running trend of focusing on actively managed ETFs and turns to a new Vanguard high-yield corporate bond index fund as his "ETF of the Week," noting that the ultra-low fees on the fund and the outperformance of the index make it something to consider now. In the Market Call, Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager for Globalt Investments [https://globalt.com], discusses his earnings-driven investment style and what to make of the volatile market reactions around perceived "sand-bagging," where companies meet profit projections but the Street doesn't think expectations were set high enough.

Calamos' Freund: 'It's very hard to be pessimistic about the broad market'

Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments [https://Calamos.com], says a resilient economy is producing "shocking numbers for a mid-cycle economy," powering through problems in a way that puts the Federal Reserve on hold, avoiding interest rate hikes this year and returning to a bias towards cutting in 2027. Freund thinks that it's "back to the future" for the Fed, with new chairman Kevin Warsh bringing the central bank to where less information and guidance makes for more policy flexibility, even if it results in some additional volatility since the policy path will be less well-defined. Freund says the chances of recession in the next year are low, but that investors have to remain cognizant that "every mountain has two sides and, at some point, the string of good years can't go on forever." Meb Faber [https://mebfaber.com], chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments [https://cambriafunds.com], returns to the show a day after his Big Interview appearance to discuss his new book, "Investing in America: The Rise of a 250-Year Bull Market." He discusses what he expects the future to look like and why the bull market can continue almost indefinitely but why investors may not want to focus entirely on domestic investments in the future. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about the cheap, small-dollar life-insurance policies advertised regularly on television and whether seniors are better off going for the convenience of those policies or looking for other ways to protect their families.

Cambria's Faber: 'The bull market in diversification has begun'

Meb Faber [https://mebfaber.com], chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments [https://cambriafunds.com], says that large-cap domestic stocks have done so well that it has masked the rise of the rest of the investment ecosystem, but now that he expects recent good times to be balanced out by tougher stretches ahead for the Standard & Poor's 500, investors will want to take advantage of small-cap stocks, foreign stocks and more. That's good preparation for bear markets, and Faber makes it clear that downturns are a feature of the market, something that will come around again. Faber — who will return to Wednesday's show to discuss his new book, "Investing in America: The Rise of a 250-Year Bull Market" — says the trend remains "all signs green" for the market currently, but he says investors should be watching for change. Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research [https://himountresearch.substack.com], says that the best environment for the stock market isn't falling rates, but rather rates that aren't moving. That positions the stock market to be in a "boring" and "quiet" environment where it can keep riding technicals which Delwiche describes as being "in pretty good shape" right now, with all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 above their long-term moving averages and more stocks making new highs than are making new lows. Those patterns are creating "strength beneath the surface" that he says can power the market higher. David Miller, co-founder of Catalyst Mutual Funds [https://catalystmf.com] talks about insider buying as an indicator of corporate strength, monopoly and oligopoly positions as a way to play developing technologies and more in a wide-ranging Money Life Market Call.

S&P's Gruenwald: Expect a slow, steady economy with rates in 'a hawkish hold'

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings [https://spglobal.com], he expects that the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates will be a cut, but says it won't happen until 2027, which he described as a one-year delay for the central bank to get back to more neutral levels. Gruenwald says it's a "hawkish hold," with the Fed being prepared to raise rates but hoping to hold off. Gruenwald says that effort is helped by the economy's resilience, driven by business investment and the wealth effect created by the market's return to record levels, which have put a floor on economic growth, allowing the economy to overcome a handful of economic and policy shocks — including the Iran War — in recent years. That's why he recently cut his expectations on recession, cutting the chance of an economic downturn from 33% down to 20%. Vijay [https://ijaymarolia.com] Marolia [https://vijaymarolia.com] spent the holiday weekend celebrating the holiday and more, and while he says his invitation to the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding extravaganza was lost in the mail, he isn't losing the chance to look at the wild spending on the party and to equate it to what more ordinary folks should do, namely learning how to size their spending so they can live well, while limiting financial regrets. Marolia, the chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital [https://regalpointcapital.com], also digs into Amazon and Tesla stock in "The Week That Is," noting that each company had something to celebrate that — when viewed under his five-lens approach to stock selection — will make investors want to have a party in their portfolio. Plus, Chuck answers a recent spate of questions about how the show itself works, and gives a behind-the-scenes look at guest selection, interview editing and more.