Anatomy of a Recession: Two Macro Economic Risks Fading

Anatomy of a Recession: Two Macro Economic Risks Fading

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments explains to host John Przygocki why he maintains a constructive outlook for the US economy, putting the odds of recession in the next 12 months at just 20%. Touching on the potential inflation implications of June's jobs report and falling oil prices, Schulze also examines shifting stock-bond correlations and argues that current S&P 500 valuations, while elevated, are supported by strong earnings. He believes that, while we may see volatility this midterm election year, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for equities in the second half of 2026.

Anatomy of a Recession Update: Resilience

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments joins host John Przygocki to discuss US economic resilience amid Middle East energy disruptions. With 11 of 12 of his Recession Risk Dashboard indicators now green, Schulze highlights a strong labor market, durable consumer spending, and a CapEx cycle broadening that extends well beyond AI. He views the economy as mid-cycle, remains constructive on US equities, and sees compelling opportunity in emerging markets.

Anatomy of a Recession Update: Jevons paradox predicts no AI "job apocalypse"

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments joins host John Przygocki to assess the health of the US economy. He points to a resilient Q1 GDP reading, strong jobs data and earnings growth in estimating a 30% recession probability. He cites the Jevons paradox to explain why he doesn't fear an AI "job apocalypse." And he remains bullish on US equities despite Middle East uncertainty and inflation worries.

Small caps deserve a closer look

In this episode of Talking Markets, Franklin Templeton Institute's Chris Galipeau and Royce's Frank Gannon examine the current opportunity in small cap equities. Against a resilient US economic backdrop, they highlight the recent outperformance of small cap equities driven by accelerating earnings growth, attractive valuations, and secular tailwinds such as reshoring, deregulation, and AI adoption. They also discuss the value of including this "forgotten asset class" in investor portfolios now.

Anatomy of a Recession Update: Conflict, volatility and opportunity

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments joins host John Przygocki to assess recession risks, energy price shocks, market volatility, and investor concerns from AI and labor trends to private credit and market concentration. Schulze also explains why the current "wall of worry" can actually create long-term equity opportunities.