The Real Story on Paul Skenes' Season

The Real Story on Paul Skenes' Season

A BDH built around two stories — the All-Star Game voting problem, and the Paul Skenes conversation that's dominating the pitching internet right now. The Skenes segment is the whole show, and Trevor and Dan land on a single thesis: This isn't a velocity story. It's a command story. Everyone on social media is diagnosing Skenes' regression through velocity — the fastball is down over a mile from last year, the arm slot is three degrees higher, the release point looks different, and the stuff-plus profile has shifted. The show unpacks each of those and shows why none of them are the story. The story is command. Skenes' entire elite-level ceiling is built on the ability to nibble the top of the zone with his four-seam and paint the arm side "coffee cup." That command is a timing product — same spot at release every pitch — and the second the timing gets a little off (a mechanical adjustment, a slot change, a bad-feel day), the command goes with it. Once the feel comes back, so does the ceiling. He'd be effective at 92 with this command profile. The middle of the episode gets into: The intentional-regression theory: is Skenes throttling max velo on purpose to build long-career health? Or is the command actually the reason the effort has come down? Max effort creates command. Guys with real arms can't throw at 80% because the conviction unlocks the delivery. Skenes' elite level is the commanded max-effort four-seam, not the raw number. The Phillies problem: 12 runs in 9 innings against Philadelphia this year — Trevor's take is you have to almost remove those two starts to see the actual baseline. Pitch mix shift: four-seam still #1, changeup usage up, sinker command has slipped, and how each of those cascades into how he attacks lefties. The old-school-vs-analytics trap: a 3.62 ERA isn't struggling, but the underlying batted-ball and whiff metrics still tell you the ceiling is there. Why this matters: The whole conversation is one of the cleanest reframes of a pitcher's regression discourse Trevor and Dan have done on the pod. It's a case study in what to actually diagnose when a pitcher's numbers drift — and why the loudest social-media takes on velocity and stuff-plus miss the underlying tool that made the pitcher elite in the first place. Plus: a full first act on why the All-Star Game voting process needs to change, who deserves to be in the game vs. who's starting (Jordan Walker, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Jarren Duran), and Trevor's alternate proposal. 00:00 Intro 00:58 All-Star Game · Save the Format 02:21 Alec Bohm + Bryson Stott · The Vote Went Wrong 03:15 Mike Trout · Popularity vs Deserving 05:05 The Alt Voting Proposal · Players, Coaches, Fan Buffer 09:46 July 4 Protest · Rigging for the Worst Player 10:56 First-Time All-Stars · Johan Duran 12:07 Pitching Snubs · MLB's Selection Bias 14:08 Speaking of Pitchers · Let's Talk Paul Skenes 17:16 The Social Media Diagnosis Attempt 17:36 Mechanical Changes + Arm Slot Theory 18:20 Trevor's Answer · It's Command 31:53 Timing Is Everything · The Command Foundation 32:34 Three Degrees of Arm Slot · Sight Line 33:25 Four-Seam to Lefties · The Coffee Cup 36:28 Still Commanding the Four-Seamer 41:03 The Phillies Numbers · 12 Runs in 9 Innings 43:07 Intentional Regression Theory · Longevity Play 48:20 Max Effort Velocity Creates Command 50:21 Pitch Usage · The Changeup Is Up 57:23 The Thesis · Skenes Is Fine As Long As He Has Command 1:02:12 Effective at 92 · The Intangibles That Don't Show 1:03:00 Closing · Paul Skenes Will Be Fine

Killing the High School Draft: Why College Wins on Player Development

The MLB owner proposal to restructure the draft — including eliminating the high school portion and shrinking the minor leagues — landed last week. The reaction across the baseball internet was the usual reflexive "negative." This episode is the case for the other side, and it lands on a thesis BSGB has been building toward for two years: college baseball's player development resources are underrated, and the loudest criticisms don't hold up against the data.Trevor and Dan walk the proposal piece by piece, then spend the back half breaking down why college dev is the better environment for almost every prospect not named Konnor Griffin.The thesis arc:Cost-saving for cost-saving's sake (capped bonus pools, eliminated rounds) gets a flagCutting minor league teams to reinvest in the ones that remain gets a thumbs-upThe high school draft elimination is the heart of the conversationThe "college coaches don't care about development" take gets dismantledThe "minor leagues are safer because of pitch counts" take gets dismantledThe actual proof: Skenes, Lowder, Chase Burns, Nick Kurtz — each one built inside a college programThe injury prevention edge: programs running NewtForce mounds with integrated biomechanics flag the risk before the pitcher feels it (vs. a road-trip start in low-A with no data infrastructure)The trickle-up reality: spin metrics, high-ride fastballs, every "new" thing the MLB broadcasters discover — college was running it two years earlierThe coach reality: Wes Johnson, Matt Hobbs, Dan Heefner are at college programs because that's where the development happens, the resources are, and the pay matchesWhy people get this wrong:Survivorship bias. The Konnor Griffin and Jackson Holiday cases are real — they're also unicorns. The kids most baseball fans never name — Riley Pint, Lonnie White, the Guardians' "million-dollar outfield" — got drafted out of high school for seven figures and never sniffed the big leagues. Two years of high-level college baseball would have given them a shot at maturity, an education, a fallback, and a more developmental environment than the bus to Jackson, Mississippi.Why college player dev is actually better:Tech parity (or surplus) vs. an MLB org's minor-league systemTop coaches making more in college than they would as pro pitching coordinatorsIntegrated biomech + ground-force + bullpen data layers inside the buildingCoach access (Matt Hobbs, Dan Heifner, Wes Johnson) for direct daily repsEducation + maturity layer that no minor league system can replicateWhy this matters:The MLB owner proposal is a starting point, not a contract. But the premise that college baseball can absorb more of the development pipeline — especially with NIL paying these kids real money to stay — is on extremely solid ground. The case Trevor and Dan lay out here is the cleanest defense of college player development BSGB has done on the pod. 00:00 Intro · Take Two (Wi-Fi-Loss Edition) 01:30 The Gym Streak + Sunday Move Day 09:30 The MLB Draft Restructuring Proposal 10:30 What's Good · Reinvesting in the Minors 13:30 What's Bad · Capping Free-Agent Bonus Pools 16:00 The High School Draft Conversation 19:30 Survivorship Bias · Riley Pint, Million-Dollar Outfield 23:00 College Player Development, Underrated 27:30 The Tech Offsets the Pitch Count 30:30 Skenes, Lowder, Burns, Kurtz · The Proof 35:00 Player Dev Trickles UP, Not Down 38:00 Injury Prevention Tech in College 41:00 The Coaching Reality · Wes, Hobbs, Heefner 45:00 Why Pro Coordinators Get Paid Less Than College Assistants 48:30 Recruiting + Roster Spots · The Transfer Pushback 53:00 The Education Layer + NIL 56:30 The International Draft Conversation 1:00:00 What People Get Wrong About College Baseball 1:04:00 Closing · The Game Wins If This Goes Through

Joey Volchko, Jacob Misiorowski & the Craft of Pitching

The same weekend, two of the most impressive pitching performances of the year — one from a junior at Georgia, one from a second-year Brewer. Joey Volchko punched out 15 over a complete game against Texas in the CWS opener. Jacob Misiorowski punched out 15 over a complete game against the Phillies on 95 pitches. Same number. Different level. Same underlying story about what good pitching development actually looks like. This BDH walks through both case studies in detail. Volchko in Athens — a high-upside Stanford transfer who'd been told for years to throw a four-seamer he couldn't throw. Georgia and Coach Wes Johnson got him in the lab, saw the natural cut, threw out the four-seam, made the cutter the number one, reframed the slider as a harder bullet, added a sweeper, then layered in a seam-shifted-wake sinker in the fall. They didn't change the athlete. They identified what he did best and built the repertoire around it. Result: a 15-K complete game on the biggest stage of his career, and a first-round draft profile. Misiorowski in Milwaukee — a high-walk minor leaguer two years ago, now a 105-in-the-tank big league starter throwing 95-pitch complete-game shutouts. The conversation reframes the cleanest line in modern pitching development: there is a difference between control (throwing strikes) and command (throwing strikes that play). Miz's in-zone rate is actually down. His first-pitch strike rate is up 8 points. Hitters are giving him more of the zone because they have to. The Brewers' system is the cleanest pitching development organization in baseball right now, and Misiorowski's arc is the proof. The back half opens up to the broader landscape: The Trey Turner slump — the leg-kick mechanics that have him stuck in 50/50, and why the breaking-ball whiff distance is the metric that confirms it Yordan Alvarez as the actual best hitter in baseball — "Juan Soto things at Aaron Judge's size" The Aaron Judge shelf situation The mid-season baseball tightening and the banana-peel outfield routes that came with it Christopher Sanchez's slider — average shape, elite value, because of the repertoire it lives inside A closing argument that we're watching the best baseball that's ever been played The throughline: The best pitching development at every level looks the same — don't fit guys into a box, find what they do best, and build the repertoire around it. Wes Johnson does it in Athens. The Brewers do it in Milwaukee. Different methods, same philosophy. This episode is the cleanest articulation of that idea Trevor and Dan have done on the pod. 00:00 Intro · CWS Weekend, Two 15-K Games 01:30 Joey Volchko · 15K vs Texas in Athens 04:00 The Georgia · Wes Johnson Pitching Lab 07:30 Don't Fit Pitchers Into a Box · The Individual Build 11:30 The Four-Seam, the Cutter, the Sinker · Repertoire Construction 15:30 The 48/37 Pitch Mix · When Off-Speed Is the Fastball 19:30 Beyond Nasty Stuff · The Next Layer of Pitching Development 24:30 Misiorowski · 15K vs the Phillies on 95 Pitches 28:00 Control vs Command · The Real Distinction 32:30 The Brewers as the Banner Pitching Development Org 36:00 The Regression-Proof Fastball 40:00 Trey Turner · The Leg Kick and the 50/50 46:00 Aaron Judge on the Shelf · The Best Hitter Conversation 49:00 Yordan Alvarez · Juan Soto Things at Aaron Judge's Size 53:30 The Tightened Ball · Banana-Peel Outfield Routes 58:00 Christopher Sanchez's Slider · Why Repertoire Beats Pitch Grade 1:02:00 Closing · The Best Baseball That's Ever Been Played

The Hitting Data That Predicts Major League Success

A regionals-Sunday BDH that lands on one of the cleanest hitter-evaluation frameworks Trevor's laid out on the pod.The cold open: an insider defense of Tre Phelps after his celebration set off the old-school crowd. Trevor went down to Athens, spent 45 minutes with him off camera, and is on the record about who Tre actually is. Then West Virginia + Steve Sabins make their first program-history trip to Omaha — Sabins is the No. 1 head coach Trevor would hire if he were running a Power Four program right now.The middle of the show is Cristopher Sanchez's historic May — 50.2 scoreless innings, near-Hershiser territory, dominant with three pitches in a six-pitch era. Then Cleveland's offensive rookie crop (Bazzana, DeLauder, the broader call-up class) and why young hitters are debuting more "ready" than they've ever been.The back half is the keeper: the hitter data that actually predicts who plays at the top. Three numbers — contact rate, in-zone swing decisions, and exit velocity — and the rule that you need at least two of three at an elite level. The Kurtz-vs-Caglianone comparison shows how raw athleticism can carry you through college and the minors but flips on you at the top if you don't check the boxes.Topics covered:The Tre Phelps celebration and an insider defense of his actual character (30 minutes early, asking questions, no entitlement)Why Coach Wes Johnson + the Georgia community see Tre the way Trevor does after meeting himWest Virginia + Steve Sabins's first-ever trip to Omaha, and why Sabins is the No. 1 head coach Trevor would hireCristopher Sanchez's historic May — 15.2 scoreless, near Hershiser, dominance with three pitchesThe Sanchez sinker + change-up tandem and how a 6'6" lefty "makes the plate bigger"60% ground ball rate + elite swing-and-miss = a wild card threat with Wheeler behind himThe offensive rookie crop — Bazzana, DeLauder, JJ Wetherholt, Cole Emerson — and why they're coming up readier than everThe ABS zone + modern training resources as the reason young hitters debut as closer-to-finished productsThe hitter evaluation framework — contact rate, in-zone swing decisions, exit velocityThe 2024 draft test: every box-checker is in the big leagues right now (except Charlie Condon)The Kurtz-vs-Caglianone comparison — out-athleting the level vs checking the boxesWhy bad-ball-hitter power doesn't translate to the topWhy the floor of a roster spot is built on contact + zone control, not slugWhy this matters:The slash line is still the way most casual coverage talks about hitters. Inside the actual front offices, the conversation lives in barrel, contact, chase, and exit velocity — and the rule that you need at least two of three at elite to play at the top. This episode is the cleanest framework Trevor's broken down on the pod, with the 2024 draft as the working proof. 00:00 Intro · First Scorcher of Summer 02:00 The Tre Phelps Celebration · Insider Defense 13:30 Steve Sabins + West Virginia to Omaha 19:00 Cristopher Sanchez's Historic May 26:00 Three Pitches in a Six-Pitch Era 33:00 Sanchez + Wheeler · The Wild Card Threat 38:00 The Rookie Crop · Why Hitters Come Up Ready 44:00 The Hitter Evaluation Framework 50:00 Kurtz vs Caglianone · The Athlete vs The Box-Checker 58:00 The 2024 Draft Test · Box-Checkers Already in the Bigs 1:03:00 Why the Floor Wins Lineups

College Baseball Regionals, the Roster Market, and Coaching Up at the Power 4

A regionals Sunday BDH on the market inefficiency every Power Four program is missing — and the coaching gap that lets mid-majors keep upsetting them. Trevor and Dan dig into the roster-build chaos at the top of college baseball: there's no salary cap, no salary floor, no shared data, and no clean market for player value. Programs are paying gut feelings, getting outflanked by mid-majors who actually coach the little things, and losing regional games because their corner infielder doesn't know to back up on two strikes. Topics covered: Recruiting AT the regionals — how a Southern Conference Pitcher of the Year gets plucked to LSU in real time Why the mid-major mindset has to be "compliment, not punishment" when players leave The roster-market problem — no comparable contract data, agents who are uncles, the SEC vs ACC ~50% price gap The "afraid to miss" trap — power-four programs chasing each other's rumors instead of building to their identity Why LSU isn't in the 2026 tournament (calendar math) and why Georgia is (built for next season, not last) The D3-coach-as-Director-of-Defense thesis: "I can recruit. I have the personality. But can I coach?" The Florida 3B two-strike story — what bad fundamentals actually cost a postseason team Tim Corbin's bunt defense ("Whoever gets there first throws it to the right base") and 19 straight regionals The Dodgers wheel play and why MLB Network embarrassed itself treating it like a new invention The three phases of the postseason: Regionals (chaos) → Supers (chalk) → Omaha (top-end talent + depth) Day games vs night games — the rain-delay edge nobody seems to schedule for Why this matters: College baseball is in its messiest competitive era — bigger gaps between programs, smaller rosters, more transfer movement, and a market with no rules. The programs that win the regional weekends aren't the most talented. They're the ones who built to their identity and coached the fundamentals nobody at the top is paying attention to. The takeaway is uncomfortable for big-budget programs: hire someone who can actually teach two-strike infield positioning. ───────────────────────────────── 00:00 Intro · Dan & Trevor + Moving Day 02:54 Setting Up the Regionals · Why Upsets Happen 05:12 Recruiting AT the Regionals · The Pluck-Up Reality 13:28 The Roster Build Problem · No Market in College Baseball 17:51 Afraid to Miss · The Market Inefficiency 26:54 Lose Your Identity, Chase Your Tail 30:36 Hire a D3 Director of Fundamentals 37:23 Tim Corbin's Simplified Bunt Defense 41:34 The Dodgers Wheel Play Embarrassment 47:44 Three Phases of Postseason · Regional · Super · Omaha 53:39 The Day-Game Edge