Anthropic filed first and now OpenAI gets benchmarked against it

Anthropic filed first and now OpenAI gets benchmarked against it

Anthropic filed confidentially for its IPO Monday, beating OpenAI to the punch and locking in a $965 billion valuation that tripled in roughly three months while revenue went from $30 billion to $47 billion annualized—the multiple expanded faster than the fundamentals, and the confidential route means no one sees the actual loss figure until Anthropic's ready. Going first means Anthropic sets the comp the entire AI sector gets priced against, right as OpenAI is dealing with missed revenue targets and a Musk lawsuit. The DoD sanctions over Claude's refusal to run weapons targeting could cost billions in sales this year per Anthropic execs, and that risk is sitting inside an S-1 the public can't read yet.

$49K new cars lost 1M buyers while AAA auto bonds crack

The auto industry just lost a million buyers since 2020 and instead of dropping prices they're stretching loans to 84 months so the $757 monthly payment doesn't look as insane as it actually is. The average new car now costs $49,461 and takes 35 weeks of median household income to afford, but analysts are calling it a soft landing because they're comparing it to last year's disaster instead of this month's actual deterioration. Even the safest auto loan securities are starting to crack as delinquencies rise, which means the industry's main trick for faking affordability is about to get way more expensive right when buyers are already tapped out.

Anthropic just hit $965B on recycled money and pushed profits to 2028

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron just became shareholders in Anthropic at a near-trillion-dollar valuation, which means the three companies that make the memory chips Claude runs on are now financially locked in to Claude winning the AI race. Anthropic raised what looks like sixty-five billion at a nine hundred sixty-five billion dollar valuation, but fifteen billion of that was recycled hyperscaler money from deals like Amazon's April commitment, so the actual new cash is closer to fifty billion. The wildest part is the valuation went up two-and-a-half times in three months while Anthropic pushed its profitability target back to 2028, and almost no one is pointing out that those two facts happening at the same time is completely insane.

Warsh blamed low rates for 2021 inflation then echoed Trump rate cuts

The 30-year Treasury hit 5% nine days before Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair at the White House, not the Fed building, with Trump literally demanding lower rates during the ceremony while claiming he wants total independence. The bond market just priced in political capture risk before Warsh has chaired a single meeting, and it's a bear steepener, meaning long rates are rising even as traders expect short-term cuts for political reasons. Warsh's play is probably the balance sheet, not rate cuts, because slashing into a 5% long bond during an oil shock would be an instant credibility collapse the market would punish in real time.

Starlink earned $4.4B while xAI burned $6.4B at SpaceX

Elon Musk just filed to take SpaceX, Starlink, xAI, and X public together at a two trillion dollar valuation, and the math only works because Starlink made four point four billion in profit last year while xAI lost six point four billion. The S-1 buries a four point two seven billion dollar quarterly loss and gives Musk eighty-three percent voting control with mandatory arbitration and class-action waivers, meaning if you buy shares you get zero ability to vote, sue, or propose anything. Existing SpaceX investors are calling the xAI and X acquisitions bailouts, but nobody can see the exchange ratios or valuations because the filing doesn't disclose them.