Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments [https://horizoninvestments.com], says he's "not super comfortable right now because everyone else is."While he doesn't see anything specific that could derail the markets, he notes that times when investors throw caution to the wind typically end badly, and that August historically has been a month for market surprises. Ladner says that earnings have been good enough to drive success this year, and that should continue, though it may reflect sluggish economic conditions and slow down a bit before the year ends. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors [https://cefadvisors.com] — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance [https://aicalliance.org] — digs into his firm's data [https://cefdata.com] to look at whether the double-digit yields that are easily found in many closed-end fund asset categories are real and worth pursuing or if they are dangerous and headed for a fall. Plus David Miller, co-founder of the Catalyst Mutual Funds [https://catalystmf.com], brings his mix of wide-moat and fundamental research with insider-buying and other factors to the Market Call.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings [https://spglobal.com], says he expects a jump in consumer prices to 3.5 percent by the end of the year, and — while he thinks the move will be temporary or a one-time response to resolution of tariff uncertainty — he expects that to make the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting rates. That's especially true because he expects economic growth to slow from about 3% early in the year to just above 1% by year's end. Despite that damper on growth, he says the economy will avoid a recession [https://spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/delegate/getPDF?articleId=3398992&type=COMMENTS&defaultFormat=PDF], muddling through a period of doldrums. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi [https://vettafi.com], makes the ETF variation of one of the greatest mutual funds of all time his pick for the ETF of the Week, and Chuck tackles Wednesday's news from the Federal Reserve, noting that if rate cuts happen this year — he's been skeptical for months — they will still disappoint investors and economists who now seem certain that the Fed will move at its next meeting in September.

Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors [https://usfunds.com] — also the executive chairman at Hive Blockchain [https://hiveblockchain.com] — says that investors should adjust to market conditions that are “sunny but … windy,” with more volatility and changing conditions but generally pleasant and not hard to navigate through “because we’re in a secular bull market.” Holmes discusses the recent strength in the gold market — where he advocates for a mix between holding the metal and owning miners — and in crypto markets, where he says adoption is key to continued growth and value creation. Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders [https://schroders.com] discusses the firm’s annual Retirement Survey, which showed that Americans who are retired are facing a reality that is significantly different than what they expected during their earning and accumulating years, which is adding surprising amounts of financial stress to their golden years. Plus Chuck answers a question from a listener who, like Chuck’s wife Gail, has a portfolio that is too heavy on equities, where he needs to figure out how to best make changes to better reflect age and risk tolerance.

Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group [https://hausberg.hightoweradvisors.com], says that he expects a correction in the not-too-distant future, but he says that it is more likely to be about time — where the market trades sideways and lets the fundamentals catch up to recent price activity  than it is about stock prices. In fact, Harris is not exceptionally worried about the current rally ending, because while the market is up about 30 percent since its April lows, it is only up about 15 percent in the last year. That's good, Harris says, "but not too far too fast," especially because current performance is within the ranges of historical norms. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com [https://bankrate.com], says he still expects the Federal Reserve to make two rate cuts before year's end, but he's not expecting any moves when the central bank meets this week, and he says that rate cuts have already been mostly priced into the market , meaning that when reductions finally happen they will not have the full, classic impact that the market expects from cuts. Plus Drew Miyawaki, director of managed investment solutions [https://westwoodgroup.com/investment-management/managed-investment-solutions] for Westwood Holdings Group [https://westwoodgroup.com], talks about allocating assets now amid global uncertainty and ways to play foreign markets by focusing at least as much on a country's government structure and geopolitics as on its markets.

Lyle Fitterer, senior portfolio manager for the Baird [https://bairdfunds.com] Funds — manager of the Baird Municipal Bond and Baird Strategic Muni Bond funds — says that absolute yields on fixed income looks pretty attractive, but that muni bonds have lagging some other bond types through the beginning of the year, but are poised now for better results in the second half of the year. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality — chairperson of the Business Conditions Survey for the National Association for Business Economics [https://nabe.com] — says that the July survey released today shows that corporate economists have reduced the odds that there's a recession moving forward, but noted that their employers are taking a more cautious approach as they deal with elevated costs in light of tariff changes and other policies. Kyle Guske, analyst at New Constructs [https://newconstructs.com], revisits SunRun as a pick in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock bas been cut dramatically after a huge decline in value, but recently has had a bounce from new lows that is setting up buyers for the next big decline. Plus, in the Market Call, Patrick Healey, founder/president of Caliber Financial Partners [https://caliberfinancialpartners.com], talks about stocks and finding a dynamic balance in current conditions.