Portfolio Intelligence Podcast

With fresh economic data and anticipated interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the market has a lot to look forward to as the back-to-school season ushers in a time of renewed focus. In this episode, host John Bryson sits down with Matt and Emily for a timely check-in as summer draws to a close. They delve into the recent uptick in global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings and how it might signal shifts in market sentiment. They also explore the current phase of U.S. earnings growth and discuss their strategies for stocks and bonds in the current market landscape. Here’s a glimpse into the conversation. 1 What opportunities do you see in bonds and equities? Emily: We favor high-quality bonds like investment-grade corporates, mortgage-backed securities, and municipal bonds due to elevated yields and potential duration benefits. In stocks, we think it’s time to shift from riskier market segments to high-quality stocks. We are focusing on sectors like technology, communication services, and industrials, emphasizing companies with strong returns on equity and reasonable PEG ratios. 2 How do you view the current phase of the market cycle with regard to U.S. earnings? Matt: Earnings growth will have to remain the key driver of equity returns as dividend yields are low and P/E ratios are high. S&P 500 Index earnings have exceeded expectations, but Q3 and Q4 earnings performance will be crucial to watch. Ultimately, we think strong earnings are the best thing this market's got going for itself. 3 How do you interpret the recent bounce in global PMI, especially for U.S. manufacturing and services? Emily: Global PMI showed a reacceleration in growth in August. The U.S. manufacturing PMI at 53.3 was the highest reading of the year. U.S. services also performed well. United States is showing better relative growth compared to Europe, leading us to favor U.S. equities.

Understanding the nuances of private and public fixed-income portfolios is crucial for advisors to deliver effective outcomes for clients. Our Head of Investment Product Management Matthew C. Hammer, CRPC, discusses strategies for crafting resilient fixed-income portfolios.

With the Social Security Fairness Act now in effect, significant changes are under way for retirement benefits. In a conversation with podcast host John P. Bryson, Brooke delves into the implications of eliminating the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) and what the changes mean for current and future retirees. Here’s a glimpse into the conversation. 1 What is the Social Security Fairness Act? Brooke: The Social Security Fairness Act of 2025 repealed two controversial provisions that were a part of Social Security: the WEP and GPO. The Fairness Act was signed into law on January 5, 2025, by former U.S. President Joe Biden. Although it was signed into law in 2025, it is retroactive to January 1, 2024. 2 What happens now that WEP and GPO have been eliminated? Brooke: Since these provisions were repealed, Social Security has been making one-time retroactive payments to individuals who previously received lower benefits. These payments cover amounts due from January 2024 to February 2025. Starting in April 2025, ongoing payments should reflect the new, higher amounts. However, it may take until November 2025 to fully process all retroactive payments. 3 Who benefits from the Social Security Fairness Act? Brooke: Between three to four million people are affected by this change. This primarily affects individuals in a few states such as Texas, California, Massachusetts, Colorado, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, and Illinois.

Active ETFs are gaining traction as a tool for alpha generation, while the potential for an ETF share class has come to the forefront in the past few months. Steve discusses considerations for investors looking to incorporate these investment options into their portfolios in this episode with podcast host John P. Bryson. Here’s an excerpt from the conversation: 1 What are active ETFs? Steve: An active ETF combines the ETF wrapper with active management inside of a 40 Act product like a mutual fund, but in this case, the 40 Act product is the exchange-traded fund. It allows for intraday trading, transparency of underlying holdings, and tax efficiency, with the potential to outperform a market or a benchmark. 2 What should investors consider while picking an active ETF that’s right for them? Steve: Investors should consider the track record and trustworthiness of the active manager, understanding what the fund aims to accomplish. They should consider the underlying investments within the ETF and how that relates to pricing. There's always a spread, like when you buy a stock, so you want to understand how wide the spread is, your cost of acquisition, and if you have to pay a commission. 3 What is an ETF share class? Steve: An ETF share class is an additional share class of a traditional mutual fund, similar to an A or I share class, but in an ETF wrapper. It allows for an ETF to be linked to an already established mutual fund with a track record, offering benefits like instant scale and historical performance. This setup can provide lower overall expenses and more tax efficiency due to the structure of ETFs. 1 “ETFs 2029: The path to $30 trillion,” PwC, 3/4/25 .

Whether we’re considering domestic or international equities, market movements and valuations seem to be reflecting sentiments rather than underlying fundamentals. Moving into the second half of 2025, it’s crucial to look beyond inflated valuations and seek pockets of opportunity that offer both value and quality. In this episode, Matt and Emily talk to podcast host John P. Bryson about how investors can navigate today’s volatile market even as economic slowdown worries persist. Here’s a sneak peek into the conversation. 1 What’s U.S. economic data indicating? Matt: The employment picture is still holding up okay, with monthly job gains of about 150,000. Initial jobless claims have come up a little bit but are still at a low level historically. Overall, it’s not amazing growth, but it's not too slow either. It seems like no one's appreciating the slowdown in inflation, but the data’s showing it. In our view, some of the current market movements may have rotation or opportunities presenting themselves because the U.S. economy's holding up all right. 2 How is the bond market reacting to U.S. economic data? Emily: Bonds aren't getting the memo as it relates to the macro backdrop. Normally, you would think that bond yields would be falling meaningfully as inflation comes down. We're not really seeing that. We're sort of chopping around in the 4.50%-ish range. Housing, for example, is a critical component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). There is a lot more housing supply coming online, and that is bringing inflation to the lowest level since 2021.1 That's a really notable dynamic that is just not being picked up by the bond market right now. 3 What should investors focus on for the second half of 2025? Emily: We want to be careful about chasing risk here. We need to think about where we can find value. Where can we find the best earnings growth on a relative basis? Where can we find parts of the market that are on sale? We want to be careful about not getting pushed into momentum-driven areas of markets that are just rallying on sentiment. 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.