Existing Home Sales Disappoint While Rising Inventory Tests Sellers

Alan Greenspan's Legacy Meets Today's AI-Driven Market Shift

National housing inventory moved higher again, price reductions are approaching 40%, and mortgage rates remain volatile as the market waits for more inflation data. In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut covers national housing inventory, mortgage rates, the 10-year Treasury, oil prices, upcoming economic reports, Alan Greenspan's economic legacy, and the growing impact of artificial intelligence. Inventory rose by 14,015 active listings to 830,939. The national median list price remained around $450,000, average days on market held near 56, and price reductions increased to approximately 38.62%. Ed explains that nearly 40% of listed properties nationwide have had some kind of price reduction during the listing process. At the same time, he cautions buyers not to assume that appraisals are automatically coming in low, noting that he has not seen that pattern in his own files. The episode also previews the week's key reports, including ADP employment, mortgage applications, new home sales, PCE inflation, the final first-quarter GDP read, and durable goods. Mortgage rates remained under pressure, with the 10-year Treasury around 4.50% and mortgage pricing worse by roughly 18 to 20 basis points during the episode. Ed explains that rates are unlikely to improve meaningfully until inflation shows clearer signs of moving lower. Ed also reflects on Alan Greenspan's role through several major economic events and uses that discussion to compare the rise of AI to the personal-computer revolution. The difference, Ed argues, is that AI is already helping people and companies produce profit, output, and leverage today. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for mortgage insight, housing-market updates, economic reports, and market news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #MortgageRates #HousingInventory #PriceReductions #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #Inflation #PCEReport #GDPReport #DurableGoods #ADPJobs #NewHomeSales #TenYearTreasury #AlanGreenspan #ArtificialIntelligence #AIRealEstate #MarketNewsWithTeeth #CaliforniaRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate

Retail Spending Beats Forecasts as Homebuyers Wait for Lower Rates

Mortgage pricing improved, oil prices moved lower, and markets turned their attention toward the Federal Reserve and a possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement. In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut explains why rates improved and why buyers should pay attention to more than just today's mortgage quote. Ed recently saw a borrower's available rate improve by approximately one-quarter percentage point between the initial quote and the loan disclosure. That improvement shows how quickly mortgage pricing can change when oil, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and geopolitical headlines shift. The episode also covers the latest Mortgage Bankers Association application report. Overall mortgage application volume declined 3.8% for the week. Purchase applications fell 3.4%, while refinance applications dropped 4.5%. Although refinance activity remained above last year's level, Ed explains that the numbers are still weak compared with periods when rates were substantially lower. Retail sales offered a different signal. May sales increased 0.9%, beating expectations, while sales excluding automobiles rose 0.8%. Consumers are still spending despite concerns about affordability and household budgets. Ed also discusses: * Mortgage pricing improving during the morning * The 10-year Treasury holding near 4.43% * Oil settling below $80 per barrel * Why lower oil may eventually reduce inflation pressure * Falling purchase and refinance applications * Stronger-than-expected retail sales * Continued weakness in builder confidence * The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision * A possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement * Reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls * Why waiting for lower rates may create more buyer competition The central message is to focus on the right property and overall financial strategy. Rates may improve, but lower borrowing costs can quickly bring more buyers back into the housing market. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for mortgage insight, housing-market updates, economic reports, and market news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #MortgageRates #MortgageApplications #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #FederalReserve #FOMC #RetailSales #OilPrices #Inflation #TenYearTreasury #HomeBuyingTips #Refinance #HousingAffordability #HomebuyerCompetition #MortgageMarket #CaliforniaRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #MarketNewsWithTeeth

Slower Job Growth, Lower Oil, and the Mortgage Market Waiting Game

Housing starts fell sharply in May, dropping to their lowest annualized pace since 2020. What could that mean for housing supply, home prices, buyer competition, and mortgage rates? In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut breaks down the latest housing construction and employment reports. Building permits came in near expectations at approximately 1.4 million annualized units, but housing starts fell roughly 15% to an annualized pace near 1.18 million. Ed explains that the country needs significantly more new homes each year to keep up with household formation and population growth. When construction slows, fewer new homes reach the market. If mortgage rates move lower and demand rises, buyers may find themselves competing for an even smaller supply of available properties. Ed also covers: * Mortgage pricing improving by approximately four basis points * The 10-year Treasury near 4.44% * Oil prices moving lower * Why lower oil does not immediately erase inflation * The Federal Reserve meeting * A possible Middle East peace agreement * The Strait of Hormuz reopening without tolls * Weekly ADP job growth slowing * Why some layoffs may not be related to artificial intelligence * The buy-now-and-refinance-later strategy The episode's central message is simple: rates can change, but the number of available homes may remain limited. Buyers should consider the entire market, not just the current interest rate. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for mortgage updates, housing data, economic insight, and real estate news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #HousingStarts #BuildingPermits #HousingShortage #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #TenYearTreasury #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #HomeBuyingTips #NewHomeConstruction #HousingSupply #HomebuyerCompetition #ADPJobs #OilPrices #Inflation #BuyNowRefinanceLater #CaliforniaRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate

Real Estate Jerky Daily $35 Trillion in Equity and No Housing Crash

National housing inventory increased again, but homeowners are also holding a record amount of equity. What do those two numbers tell us about the direction of the real estate market? In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut examines the latest housing, mortgage, manufacturing, and builder-confidence reports. National active inventory increased by more than 10,000 listings to approximately 816,924. The national median list price remained around $450,000, average market time held near 56 days, and price reductions climbed to approximately 37.93%. Ed explains why rising inventory matters without automatically signaling a housing crash. Real estate remains highly local, and conditions can vary significantly depending on the city, neighborhood, price range, and property type. The episode also covers the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. Builder confidence declined to 35, current sales conditions weakened, expectations for the next six months remained below healthy levels, and buyer traffic stayed low. Another major number in this episode is homeowner equity. Owner-occupied residential real estate reached an estimated value of $49 trillion. After subtracting approximately $14 trillion in mortgage debt, homeowners were left with roughly $35 trillion in equity. Ed also reviews: * Mortgage pricing improving by approximately 16 basis points * The 10-year Treasury remaining near 4.46% * Oil prices and their effect on inflation * Cooling regional manufacturing activity * The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting * Housing starts and ADP employment reports * Mortgage applications and pending home sales * The decision to lock or float a mortgage rate The key message is that buyers are still purchasing homes in neighborhoods where supply is limited. Inventory is rising, but desirable properties remain scarce in many local markets. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for housing-market updates, mortgage education, economic insight, and real estate news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #HousingMarketUpdate #HousingInventory #HomeEquity #MortgageRates #HomebuilderConfidence #BuilderSentiment #FederalReserve #PriceReductions #HomeBuyingTips #HomeSellingTips #RealEstateMarket #TenYearTreasury #Inflation #MortgageRateLock #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #MarketNewsWithTeeth

Mortgage Rate Volatility Meets Strong Local Pending Sales

In this June 12 episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly break down local housing activity, California market numbers, VA mortgage pricing, wage growth, and the economic reports that could move rates next week. The local Stanislaus County market remained active, with closings increasing from earlier in the week and pending sales continuing to hold above 400. Ed and Mike also review California housing activity, including daily closings, pending transactions, days on market, and the percentage of sellers reducing their asking prices. One of the most important mortgage topics in this episode is the difference between a VA loan within the conforming loan limit and a VA loan just above that threshold. Ed explains that crossing into jumbo VA pricing can create a significant rate difference. In one real-world scenario, a borrower could potentially contribute additional funds to stay below the limit and save close to half a percentage point on the interest rate. Ed also covers the Atlanta Federal Reserve Wage Growth Tracker. Wage growth continued to slow for both employees staying in their current jobs and workers changing employers. The premium for switching jobs is now much smaller than it was a few years ago. The episode concludes with a preview of next week's economic calendar, including industrial production, housing starts, ADP employment, mortgage applications, retail sales, pending home sales, jobless claims, and the Federal Reserve meeting. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for local market updates, mortgage education, VA loan insight, and economic news with teeth. #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #MikeKelly #RealEstateJerky #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #VALoans #VAJumboLoan #MortgageRates #HousingMarketUpdate #StanislausCountyRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #PendingSales #HomeClosings #PriceReductions #WageGrowth #FederalReserve #MarketNewsWithTeeth Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate!